I've just done this analysis for us, Newcastle, Huddersfield and Reading.
To try and take the emotion/bias out of it, I set some criteria based on whether a team was at home or away and what the current league position is of their opponents.
- If at home to top ten - draw
- If at home to anyone else - win
- If away to top twelve - draw
- If away to anyone else - win
Sticking to this exact criteria makes pretty reading for us!
I know it won't follow like this, and all teams will lose the odd game as well, but stick with the rationale for a moment. On paper at least we have the slightly easier fixtures, and Newcastle and Reading have a much tougher run.
The key games will obviously see swings, and I guess this type of analysis hampers Newcastle's impressive away record more than it should, but it's a consistent format for all clubs. The same could be same for our impressive home record.
Also worth noting that on this basis, although we finish eight points clear of Huddersfield we are only two points clear with eight matches to go at the international break in mid March. That is real squeeky bum time, but their tough run starts then when the pressure will really be on. That will be a time for cool heads and we will have a much easier run which gives us 7 wins from the last 8 games.
I suspect all teams will get less points than this but I'm hanging my hat on the gaps shown being not that far off.