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  1. #1
    Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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    The main competition - all fixtures analysis - we are going up as champions


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    I've just done this analysis for us, Newcastle, Huddersfield and Reading.

    To try and take the emotion/bias out of it, I set some criteria based on whether a team was at home or away and what the current league position is of their opponents.

    So,
    - If at home to top ten - draw
    - If at home to anyone else - win

    - If away to top twelve - draw
    - If away to anyone else - win

    Sticking to this exact criteria makes pretty reading for us!

    I know it won't follow like this, and all teams will lose the odd game as well, but stick with the rationale for a moment. On paper at least we have the slightly easier fixtures, and Newcastle and Reading have a much tougher run.

    The key games will obviously see swings, and I guess this type of analysis hampers Newcastle's impressive away record more than it should, but it's a consistent format for all clubs. The same could be same for our impressive home record.

    Also worth noting that on this basis, although we finish eight points clear of Huddersfield we are only two points clear with eight matches to go at the international break in mid March. That is real squeeky bum time, but their tough run starts then when the pressure will really be on. That will be a time for cool heads and we will have a much easier run which gives us 7 wins from the last 8 games.

    I suspect all teams will get less points than this but I'm hanging my hat on the gaps shown being not that far off.

    Laugh away
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    Last edited by Giraffe; 16-02-2017 at 14:47.

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    • #2
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      1 Not allowed!
      You have too much time on your hands. Get a job
    • #3
      Members studio150's Avatar
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      2 Not allowed!
      Flawed in removing any defeats for the teams involved
    • #4
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Jimmehh View Post
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      You have too much time on your hands. Get a job
      Slow work day combined with promotion feveritus. Counsellors told me to not to over analyse but I misheard.....
    • #5
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by studio150 View Post
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      Flawed in removing any defeats for the teams involved
      Indeed, as I said. But it was done to highlight the different run ins and difficulty level of games rather than a points points prediction. The gaps are the key elements for me, not the total points which I accept are overstated in probably all cases.

      The other flaw is that a team like Cardiff or QPR which is currently playing above it's current league position may do better than shown against these teams. Cardiff are playing Huddersfield and Newcastle. We are the only ones that have QPR still to play.
    • #6
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      0 Not allowed!
      Good analysis, but I suspect Derby are really a 'top 10' side with their game in hand, so I'd downgrade us by 2 points.
    • #7

      4 Not allowed!
      To be honest, I've pretty much lost all interest in predictions and people trying to use science, statistics or some kind of formula to figure out what's going to happen. As I've said before, anyone can beat anyone on their day in this league and things change minute by minute, (as seen on Tuesday night) let alone match by match, so what's the point?

      I'm not getting too up or down about the whole thing because a) it prevents possible disappointment further down the line when things don't go to 'plan' and b) it's only football – whatever will be, will be. I'm just kicking back and enjoying the ride.

      One more thing to remember, should it all go tits up – you can't miss what you never had.
    • #8
      Members Rugrat's Avatar
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      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Giraffe View Post
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      I've just done this analysis for us, Newcastle, Huddersfield and Reading.

      To try and take the emotion/bias out of it, I set some criteria based on whether a team was at home or away and what the current league position is of their opponents.

      So,
      - If at home to top ten - draw
      - If at home to anyone else - win

      - If away to top twelve - draw
      - If away to anyone else - win

      Sticking to this exact criteria makes pretty reading for us!

      I know it won't follow like this, and all teams will lose the odd game as well, but stick with the rationale for a moment. On paper at least we have the slightly easier fixtures, and Newcastle and Reading have a much tougher run.

      The key games will obviously see swings, and I guess this type of analysis hampers Newcastle's impressive away record more than it should, but it's a consistent format for all clubs. The same could be same for our impressive home record.

      Also worth noting that on this basis, although we finish eight points clear of Huddersfield we are only two points clear with eight matches to go. Their tough run starts then when the pressure will really be on. That will be a time for cool heads and we will have a much easier run which gives us 7 wins from the last 8 games.

      I suspect all teams will get less points than this but I'm hanging my hat on the gaps shown being not that far off.

      Laugh away
      It's not disimilar to what I try and do, in so much as giving the same outcome for the same opposition. I do add the emotional element and just think that Newcastle could piledrive their way to the title. That said, I think we and Hudders could probably match up well (notwithstanding our current form). I'd just add a loss or two in, most likely at the middling aways which we both have an equal number of

      The one thing missing is the CH factor. Time for him to really earn his money and get the squad revved up for the final laps
    • #9
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      Top eight now, as you would expect Sheff Weds and Leeds go into the play offs with Huddersfield and Reading. Yorkshire police will love it

      Norwich and Fulham miss out by some distance.
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      Last edited by Giraffe; 16-02-2017 at 14:40.
    • #10
      Members maltaseagull's Avatar
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      Remind me where Ipswich were in the table?

      Sort of puts a downer on the theory?

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