Will 90 points be blown away this season?

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

Berty23 said:
I am not flush enough for spreadbetting. It was more a challenge of your CONFIDENCE To put your money where your mouth is. I have a tenner riding on it but won't be doing more because I am not that confident. You appear CONVINCED so what is your stake?

I bet at the bookies thanks

Uncle Spielberg · Feb 15, 2017

For the previous 12 seasons in the Championship, 1st - 92.5 points average, 2nd - 86.5 points average, every season 90 points would be enough to be in the top 2 except 1 season and that was 91 points. To not go up with 89 points and then 90 points would be incredibly bad luck

Murray 17 · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
The top 3 with 15 to play need 24, 25 and 29 points from a possible 45 to get to 90. It doesn't take an A-Level in maths to work out that they can all lose 4 games each, and still comfortably get to 90 points. The playing each other is a red herring. 1 team's defeat is the other's 3 points closer to 90. All the games against each can be drawn, and they'd still do it. You don't need to look at the bottom of the table to see what is staring you in the face at the top.

Yes, but where that A Level in maths helps is that it tells you that if the distribution in points has effectively meant 90+ points has been the benchmark for 20+ years, it is not suddenly going to change.

For 4 or 5 sides to average over 2 points a game (over a season), when it's never been done before, IMO will not happen.

Last year people were talking about the top 3 running away with it, and as we all know, 89 points was enough.

Berty23 · Feb 15, 2017

Uncle Spielberg said:
For the previous 12 seasons in the Championship, 1st - 92.5 points average, 2nd - 86.5 points average, every season 90 points would be enough to be in the top 2 except 1 season and that was 91 points. To not go up with 89 points and then 90 points would be incredibly bad luck

As would having 4 players go off injured in the first 50 mins of a play off match.....

I still think we go up by the way.

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

Murray 17 said:
Yes, but where that A Level in maths helps is that it tells you that if the distribution in points has effectively meant 90+ points has been the benchmark for 20+ years, it is not suddenly going to change.

For 4 or 5 sides to average over 2 points a game (over a season), when it's never been done before, IMO will not happen.

Last year people were talking about the top 3 running away with it, and as we all know, 89 points was enough.

It already has changed, it is unprecedented for more than 2 sides to be 60+ points after 31 games for that same period.

It has already happened before, Sunderland failed to go up with 90 points in 97/98 when 3 teams finished 90+ points.

I never said 4 or 5 sides will get 90 points, I just said 90 points might not be enough, and I stand by that. Huddersfield need 1.93 ppg to get to 90. They can do that without an exceptional run. 8 wins 5 draws 2 defeats and they are there.

Last season should be the warning signal. The top 3 finished: 93, 89, 89. After 31 games they were: 56, 61, 57. So all 3 got pretty much 2 points per game or more for the final 15 games...

Tim Over Whelmed · Feb 15, 2017

Whilst I have always said we need 91 to be safe I still believe we could acheive fewer points than we did last year and still go up.

Uncle Spielberg · Feb 15, 2017

Also the 86.5 points average is what the team in second has got, not what they needed to get second, so the amount will be lower, therefore to get 89 points and 90 points and not go up in second place for two seasons in a row would make BHAFC the unluckiest team in the World

Nixonator · Feb 15, 2017

Uncle Spielberg said:
Also the 86.5 points average is what the team in second has got, not what they needed to get second, so the amount will be lower, therefore to get 89 points and 90 points and not go up in second place for two seasons in a row would make BHAFC the unluckiest team in the World

You make it sound like that would be a surprise.

I don't think three teams will reach 90, it could be us that doesn't get there, but if it does happen and a few of the wrong kind of records get broken you can be sure it'll be us that does it.

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

I would expect if we get 89 points we'll go up automatically, whether we do is another matter

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

Huddersfield's fixtures -

Reading H
Barnsley A
Wolves A
Newcastle H
Villa H
Brentford A
Bristol C A
Burton H
Norwich H
Forest A
Preston H
Derby A
Fulham H
Birmingham A
Cardiff H

29 points from that lot won't be easy

Murray 17 · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
It already has changed, it is unprecedented for more than 2 sides to be 60+ points after 31 games for that same period.

It has already happened before, Sunderland failed to go up with 90 points in 97/98 when 3 teams finished 90+ points.

I never said 4 or 5 sides will get 90 points, I just said 90 points might not be enough, and I stand by that. Huddersfield need 1.93 ppg to get to 90. They can do that without an exceptional run. 8 wins 5 draws 2 defeats and they are there.

Last season should be the warning signal. The top 3 finished: 93, 89, 89. After 31 games they were: 56, 61, 57. So all 3 got pretty much 2 points per game or more for the final 15 games...

OK, I take your point.

I'm just going to say two more things though.

Firstly, Man City won their first 10 league matches. In the last 15 they have only gained 22 points. Who would have thought that they would have dropped 23 points from a possible 45, after such a start? It's just the way things average out over the long-term.

Finally, let's just hope that however many points any team gets this season, there's only a maximum of one who gets more than us!

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

Murray 17 said:
OK, I take your point.&#55357;&#56397;

I'm just going to say two more things though.

Firstly, Man City won their first 10 league matches. In the last 15 they have only gained 22 points. Who would have thought that they would have dropped 23 points from a possible 45, after such a start? It's just the way things average out over the long-term.

Finally, let's just hope that however many points any team gets this season, there's only a maximum of one who gets more than us!

Don't get me wrong, we'll still win the league with 96 points, just interesting what will happen below us...

Justice · Feb 15, 2017

Just our luck tbh I never thought in million years Huddersfield would be up there. I have a feeling we will go up on goal difference this season football likes to even itself out.

Don Quixote · Feb 15, 2017

Ninety will be enough. We should get more than that.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Joshski · Feb 15, 2017

adub68 said:
Nine wins would be phenomenal for Reading - they face Hudds, BHA, Sheff Weds and Norwich away and have both Toon and Leeds to play at home. They also have to travel to Preston.

8 wins for Huddersfield is not out of the question if their form continues. With only Norwich of the top six/seven to play away from home (they face Derby away too) and like us they have Reading and Toon at home. They do however have Barns and Preston to play locally. While they are starting 4 points back a spread of 24-30 points doesnt seem out of their reach

Agree that Reading are out of the race for the top 2, think it's a three horse race again this season!

Murray 17 · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
Don't get me wrong, we'll still win the league with 96 points, just interesting what will happen below us...

[emoji122]

Hampster Gull · Feb 15, 2017

Ernest said:
Nope, it will take a phenomenal run of form for 3 clubs to get 89+ and it won't happen

It's statistically more likely to happen than Corbyn becoming PM

Surf's Up · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
The top 4 can all afford to lose 2 or 3 games, draw 2 to 4, and still get to 90 points.

and on current form they could all achieve this.

virtual22 · Feb 15, 2017

I may be being overly optimistic based on last night's performance but I have us finishing on 97:-

Barnsley (A) 1
Reading (H) 3
Newcastle United (H) 1
Nottingham Forest (A) 3
Rotherham United (A) 3
Derby County (H) 1
Leeds United (A) 0
Blackburn Rovers (H) 3
Birmingham City (H) 3
Queens Park Rangers (A) 3
Wolves (A) 3
Wigan Athletic (H) 3
Norwich City (A) 1
Bristol City (H) 3
Aston Vila (A) 1

Total of 32 points

warmleyseagull · Feb 15, 2017

Hampster Gull said:
It's statistically more likely to happen than Corbyn becoming PM

Rotherham getting 90 points is more likely than Corbyn becoming PM

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Will 90 points be blown away this season?

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