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Aug 11, 2003
2,726
The Open Market
Will Rook is a Newcastle fan.

Reverse psychology and all that.
 




Aug 11, 2003
2,726
The Open Market
Blocked at work... Care to enlighten me as to what the link beholds?

We think it's all over: Why Hughton is wrong to think Brighton can be caught
Will Rook

Currently second in the Championship, the Seagulls are destined for promotion and here are the stats that prove it...

Last weekend, Brighton stumbled to their first league defeat in 19 as they were beaten 2-0 away at Preston. That disappointment prompted manager Chris Hughton to issue the warning that the hunt for promotion from the Championship was “not a two-horse race.” But with the Seagulls six points ahead of their nearest rivals, is that really the case?

Points
For the 28-year period in which the Championship has been a 24-team division, there has only been one team to have finished second and have accrued more than Brighton’s 54 points by this stage of the season.

That was Sheffield United, who had notched two more with 56 at this point in the 2005/06 season and went on to finish with 90, 16 behind eventual champions Reading.

That 106-point haul broke the English record for the highest total in a single season, but should the second half of the Seagulls’ campaign continue in a similar vein to the first then they will not be far off – with their current average of 2.16 per game meaning they are on course to finish on 99.

That projected total has only been bettered five times in the last 28 years, and would not only virtually guarantee promotion but the title as well, given that Newcastle’s extra game played only has them on target for 97.

As for the chances of any rivals below catching them, Sunderland’s 90 points in 1997/98 was the most ever amassed by a team to finish in third, considerably more than the 84 that Leeds – who currently occupy that position – are on course to accrue.

Goals
This is where Brighton are not quite as dominant as the free-scoring sides that have gone before them.

Seventeen of the past 28 sides to have been second in the league at this stage had scored more than the 40 they have netted so far.

Their projected total of 73 goals, meanwhile, would be fewer than 15 of those sides who eventually went on to secure second place.

That alone, though, is not enough to discount them from promotion contention.

Glenn Murray is the division’s second-highest scorer with 15, with only Dwight Gayle – whose 20 goals are more than anybody else in the country – ahead of him.

Murray hit 30 league goals in his most recent full Championship season and while he may not reach the same tally this time around, the 33-year-old is showing no signs of stopping.

Defence
Instead of a deadly attack, the Seagulls’ success has been built on their rigid defensive foundations.

Only two sides to have been in the same position as Brighton are now had conceded fewer than their 17 goals against – QPR in 2013/14 and Ipswich in 1998/99.

And, although both ultimately failed to win promotion, crucially they had scored nine and four fewer goals respectively.

Brighton’s miserliness means they are currently on course to have the third-equal best defence of any team to finish in the top two, with their projected 31 goals against that same as Middlesbrough conceded last season.

That figure has only been bettered by 1998/99 champions Sunderland – who conceded 28 – and West Brom in 2001/02, who let in 29.

Staying power
The omens are mixed for the Seagulls here.

Of the 28 teams to have been second at this point, only half have gone on to win promotion with three only doing so via the play-offs.

But do not be disheartened, Brighton fans.

No team in that period of time has ever surrendered a lead of more than four points, while only two have ever built up a buffer more substantial than the six points the Seagulls currently have between them and third place.

Brighton, though, did spend 94 days in the top two last season before missing out on goal difference to Middlesbrough on the final day.

Despite that slip-up, these statistics – not to mention their price of 13/100 – mean promotion to the Premier League should be comfortably achieved this time around, whatever Hughton says.
 












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