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Championship Odds Tracker







Questions

Habitual User
Oct 18, 2006
24,721
Worthing
'Easy' games vs Wolves and Rotherham next followed by a 6-pointer vs Derby.

Got a friend who is a season ticket holder and he is pretty confident that they cab rip teams apart. Knows his stuff as well so will hoping their defence is average.
 


Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,839
Well you do know your betting, surely Newcastle odds is ridiculous at that price? Worth a lay? I cant anyway but at this time of the season to be so cast on is ridiculous ?
They have the best squad in the division by some way, they've adapted to life in the second tier well enough to be top and 6pts clear of third with almost half the season gone, and they can splurge in January if they want.

The fact that they've lost five times already is the only chink of light for the layers, but there's just no margin in it for the bookies in the long run if they keep laying at very short odds in a market like this. Newcastle were hot favourites pre-season too, so they won't have much else in this particular book, and they will also have liabilities on them winning all over the place (pre-season Yankees etc).

If you want to lay Newcastle, you can on Betfair ... but at 1.15, which is more like 1-6 (2-13 to be precise). That suggests the 'true' price is around 1-9, which sounds about right to me.




Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
 


Postman Pat

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
6,971
Coldean
Experimental 361 have us more likely to finish top 2 than Newcastle now

ch-probabilities-2016-12-03.png
 








Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,370
West west west Sussex
This shite only gets real when the 'cant catch us' thread is a permanent fixture on page 1.
 




GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
Is it worth me putting £100 on Albion to win the league,what do i get if they do at the OPs stated odds (clearly i don't gamble).
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,370
West west west Sussex
Is it worth me putting £100 on Albion to win the league,what do i get if they do at the OPs stated odds (clearly i don't gamble).

£350 + your £100.

7/2 - divide the small number into the big one = 3.5/1

£1 gives you £3.50 and so on.
 


GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast














Eeyore

Lord Donkey of Queen's Park
NSC Patreon
Apr 5, 2014
23,380
Magpies 4/7
Seagulls 13/8
Owls 50/1

66/1 bar

And 1/7 for us to be promoted

Worth laying as an insurance bet if things go wrong. Mind you, it would have to be quite an exposure to cover the deflation of missing out.

Interestingly, there is only £34 in the lay exchange on a Brighton top two finish at Betfair, such is the betting market's confidence in us..
 
Last edited:




Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
Updated. And it looks mighty fine:


2016-12-27-ch-probabilities.png
Sure does...!

This takes into account what is most likely over ALL remaining 23 matches.

I'm expecting a slight dip in certainty during a tricky run of fixtures after Cardiff and then a resurgence.
 






bigcabboy

New member
Nov 7, 2011
235
to ease the pain of potentially us not being promoted I laid us at 1.38 to get promotion which amounts to me losing £75 if we get promoted and win £200 if we don't of course will be glad to lose the £75!!!
 



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