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Championship Odds Tracker



dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,400
Burgess Hill
If that happens, then we'd be pretty much there really. Yes, I know not mathematically certain, but we'd be on 64 points from 28 games, so about 28 points required from the remaining 18 games to be in autos.

Although I don't think it will happen, in some odd way, it does feel achievable. We've won 14 and drawn 4 from the last 18 games after all.

What's remarkable this season is that we've won a load of games when we haven't actually played very well, seemingly through a colossal will to win/spirit/determination - yesterday and Brum being the most recent examples. Even last season IF we'd have equalised in either game, we'd most likely have sat back and taken what we'd have accepted as a 'good away point', but not now. The team, driven (and masterminded - he did a job on the Fulham boss yesterday in the second half, and the same at Brum) by CH, are just desperate to win every game and it shows. It's affecting the psychology of the teams we're playing now - could see it at Brum and saw it again yesterday - when we turn it on, and score (teams know they're largely ****ed then because of our defensive record) it's like they're suddenly swamped. Once Tomer scored yesterday it was almost inevitable we'd get a second and it looked like Fulham knew it as well (perhaps not quite that quickly though :))
 




Gazwag

5 millionth post poster
Mar 4, 2004
30,137
Bexhill-on-Sea
11 wins & 3 draws from last 22 will be enough.....................going to find it difficult to not 'count them down' from here................

We always count up to 50, after each game saying the number of points still needed to avoid relegation, still can't believe we got there before the turn of the year. First time we are going to carry on to the theoretical 90, so 36 to go.
 


larus

Well-known member
What's remarkable this season is that we've won a load of games when we haven't actually played very well, seemingly through a colossal will to win/spirit/determination - yesterday and Brum being the most recent examples. Even last season IF we'd have equalised in either game, we'd most likely have sat back and taken what we'd have accepted as a 'good away point', but not now. The team, driven (and masterminded - he did a job on the Fulham boss yesterday in the second half, and the same at Brum) by CH, are just desperate to win every game and it shows. It's affecting the psychology of the teams we're playing now - could see it at Brum and saw it again yesterday - when we turn it on, and score (teams know they're largely ****ed then because of our defensive record) it's like they're suddenly swamped. Once Tomer scored yesterday it was almost inevitable we'd get a second and it looked like Fulham knew it as well (perhaps not quite that quickly though :))

In know - F***ing great isn't it!!! :D
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,171
Goldstone
What's remarkable this season is that we've won a load of games when we haven't actually played very well, seemingly through a colossal will to win/spirit/determination - yesterday and Brum being the most recent examples. Even last season IF we'd have equalised in either game, we'd most likely have sat back and taken what we'd have accepted as a 'good away point', but not now.
Agreed, accept for the 'haven't played very well' part. Vintage, no, but part of playing well is defending well, pushing for a win and taking chances. Not all teams will let us play free flowing pretty football.

The team ... are just desperate to win every game and it shows.
Indeed. The team are doing the opposite of the crap 'I'd take a point' attitude.
 






Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,667
West west west Sussex
Agreed, accept for the 'haven't played very well' part. Vintage, no, but part of playing well is defending well, pushing for a win and taking chances. Not all teams will let us play free flowing pretty football.

Indeed. The team are doing the opposite of the crap 'I'd take a point' attitude.

To me 'haven't played very well' is almost code for 'blimey Stockdale has kept us in so many games', which just hasn't been the case.
As with the rest of the squad he's had his moments, but penalty save aside, he's had a fairly regulation time of it.

Hardly the sign of a team not playing very well.
Winning all these games is 'just' a good team being good at what it needs to do.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,171
Goldstone
We're shorter odds to finish top 2 with Betfair than we are to get promoted. That's clever.
 
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Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,171
Goldstone
Could that be interpreted as they think we'll blow it if we end up in the playoffs ? I'd agree !
Agree? :facepalm:

If we finish top 2, we're promoted. Done. How can we be more likely to finish top 2 than we are to be promoted?
 














Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
9,849
Obviously don't lose sight of the fact that this is just a prediction method, it's not guaranteed:


ch-projections-2017-01-02.png

Whilst I love looking at this, I don't suppose you could post the Premier League version could you? I have a feeling it might be mildly amusing.
 








dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,400
Burgess Hill


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,171
Goldstone
is it possible to repost the Championship model from this time last season, just to see how reliable these guys are?
Good idea. It's not about how reliable they are though, but how useful the measurement is. Some of our chicken counting fans could do with reminding themselves how much things changed last season:

ch-probabilities-2016-01-16.png
 


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