This time last season

CheeseRolls · Jan 25, 2017

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2016-01-16 P27 47 +5 Fifth
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table P27 60 +25 First

http://clubelo.com/Brighton Have been quick to provide an update

Their model is pointing to a straight forward shoot out for the title and suggesting it will be very tight.
The premise of this thread was beat last year's effort and expect promotion. 13 points and 20 goals is one hell of a buffer, although we all know last season's team were about to embark on a fantastic run.

All outcomes are of course still possible, but I doubt anyone would stake money on us falling short of 75 points for the play offs from here ?
Promotion is possible via the squeeky bum route. It is not that difficult to predict 7-8 wins and a cluster of draws from the remaining fixtures. If we do drop points to rivals it could get close.
The middle road is to avoid defeat to rivals and beat the lower sides especially at home.
Have we got what it takes to pip Newcastle to the title? - It really is too early to call this one, I think.

Bigtomfu · Jan 25, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2016-01-16 P27 47 +5 Fifth
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table P27 60 +25 First

http://clubelo.com/Brighton Have been quick to provide an update

View attachment 81521
Their model is pointing to a straight forward shoot out for the title and suggesting it will be very tight.
The premise of this thread was beat last year's effort and expect promotion. 13 points and 20 goals is one hell of a buffer, although we all know last season's team were about to embark on a fantastic run.

All outcomes are of course still possible, but I doubt anyone would stake money on us falling short of 75 points for the play offs from here ?
Promotion is possible via the squeeky bum route. It is not that difficult to predict 7-8 wins and a cluster of draws from the remaining fixtures. If we do drop points to rivals it could get close.
The middle road is to avoid defeat to rivals and beat the lower sides especially at home.
Have we got what it takes to pip Newcastle to the title? - It really is too early to call this one, I think.

Can you explain why every team from Fulham down is 100% expected to finish with more points than the expected points total?!

Triggaaar · Jan 25, 2017

Bigtomfu said:
Can you explain why every team from Fulham down is 100% expected to finish with more points than the expected points total?!

It's a chart for Brighton. According to that, there's a 100% chance Brighton will finish with more points than Fulham.
There's a 99% chance we'll finish above Leeds, according to that. 97% chance of finishing top 2 (subject to rounding errors).

It is just a model and doesn't take account of the sort of things that lead to teams failing to make it.

The Optimist · Jan 25, 2017

Bigtomfu said:
Can you explain why every team from Fulham down is 100% expected to finish with more points than the expected points total?!

The percentage column is the chance of Brighton finishing with more points than that club. Hence it's saying we are 100% certain to finish above Fulham and everyone below them.

Bigtomfu · Jan 25, 2017

Triggaaar said:
It's a chart for Brighton. According to that, there's a 100% chance Brighton will finish with more points than Fulham.
There's a 99% chance we'll finish above Leeds, according to that. 97% chance of finishing top 2 (subject to rounding errors).

It is just a model and doesn't take account of the sort of things that lead to teams failing to make it.

The Optimist said:
The percentage column is the chance of Brighton finishing with more points than that club. Hence it's saying we are 100% certain to finish above Fulham and everyone below them.

Thanks both! Was squinting at it on my phone. Will have a proper butchers later on.

jabba · Jan 25, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2016-01-16 P27 47 +5 Fifth
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table P27 60 +25 First

http://clubelo.com/Brighton Have been quick to provide an update

View attachment 81521
Their model is pointing to a straight forward shoot out for the title and suggesting it will be very tight.
The premise of this thread was beat last year's effort and expect promotion. 13 points and 20 goals is one hell of a buffer, although we all know last season's team were about to embark on a fantastic run.

All outcomes are of course still possible, but I doubt anyone would stake money on us falling short of 75 points for the play offs from here ?
Promotion is possible via the squeeky bum route. It is not that difficult to predict 7-8 wins and a cluster of draws from the remaining fixtures. If we do drop points to rivals it could get close.
The middle road is to avoid defeat to rivals and beat the lower sides especially at home.
Have we got what it takes to pip Newcastle to the title? - It really is too early to call this one, I think.

Maybe a tad too quick. Didn't take into account Reading v Fulham final score (I think table based on a point each). Don't think will make much difference except for the chances of Reading to sneak up on us.

Exile · Jan 25, 2017

The Optimist said:
The percentage column is the chance of Brighton finishing with more points than that club. Hence it's saying we are 100% certain to finish above Fulham and everyone below them.

Its absolute nonsense then isn't it?

It is certainly extremely likely that we will. ALMOST certain in fact. But 100% it is clearly not - if this thing is supposed to be a statistical model of some kind, it doesn't work.

CheeseRolls · Jan 25, 2017

Exile said:
Its absolute nonsense then isn't it?

It is certainly extremely likely that we will. ALMOST certain in fact. But 100% it is clearly not - if this thing is supposed to be a statistical model of some kind, it doesn't work.

I suspect it is absolute nonsense to you, yes.

It is a model that runs through a number of scenarios, the model is run after every round of matches, to reflect the latest information. Currently it can identify no scenarios where Fulham can finish on more points than Brighton. It is a reasonable hypothesis (yet not one I want to see tested), that if we were to lose the next couple of games and that Fulham were to win a couple, the model would start to identify possibilities where Fulham could achieve more points than Brighton.

Models like this and the Experimental 3-6-1 E-ratings chart which has been reproduced a lot on NSC, are really useful, in that they ignore people's lucky pants and supporter prejudice. They also don't take into account the possibility that our entire player squad could be abducted by aliens, or that this approach might not work for you.

dazzer6666 · Jan 26, 2017

At around 1/20, I guess the bookies see us at 95% likely to be top 2 as well.........

Triggaaar · Jan 26, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
It is a model that runs through a number of scenarios, the model is run after every round of matches, to reflect the latest information. Currently it can identify no scenarios where Fulham can finish on more points than Brighton. It is a reasonable hypothesis (yet not one I want to see tested), that if we were to lose the next couple of games and that Fulham were to win a couple, the model would start to identify possibilities where Fulham could achieve more points than Brighton.

In other words, it's just not a very good model. 99.7% to finish above Reading is just ridiculous.

dazzer6666 said:
At around 1/20, I guess the bookies see us at 95% likely to be top 2 as well.........

You can get 1/12 on us with Sky, and obviously they're allowing for profit. Or you can get 8/1 on us finishing in the playoff places, which is decent.

CheeseRolls · Feb 3, 2017

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/table/2016-02-02 P28 Points 50 GD +6 5th
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2016-2017/table Whoa Too early in the morning for this, they have the table WRONG ! P28 Points 60 GD +23 First

clubelo is down
Experimental 3-6-1 hasn't been updated.
This week's top graphic is therefore a sad face

Last night had real echoes of Cardiff last season, a televised away capitulation. Brentford Away does not look like the easiest opportunity to bounce straight back.

I know lots of people don't like talking about it, but I genuinely felt that wins at Huddersfield and Brentford, would have seen Newcastle mentally concede the title. Realistically it was always a huge ask.
Looking at the great run we put together last season and didn't quite make it you have to say Derby in sixth on 46 points are out of the promotion race, which leaves a field of 5. We are still in the driving seat.

CheeseRolls · Feb 5, 2017

Triggaaar said:
In other words, it's just not a very good model. 99.7% to finish above Reading is just ridiculous.

You can get 1/12 on us with Sky, and obviously they're allowing for profit. Or you can get 8/1 on us finishing in the playoff places, which is decent.

Here is the model adjusted to take account of our recent defeats.

Oh look the model has adjusted as there is something in our form line to suggest that we are not on an unstoppable run of victories and that Preston wasn't just a blip.

Now look at the match predictions

The model still thinks on balance Brighton can win today at 42% but the loss is rated at 31%, which is the highest rating in the run since October. As a Brighton fan I know we have struggled in recent years at Brentford and I also know that they thoroughly deserved the win at the Amex earlier in the season. I am probably alone in this one, but I really hope Skalak starts ahead of Murphy. At the Amex Brentford compressed play, leaving us with little space and then the full back kept nipping around in front of Murphy and taking the ball. Bong was really struggling to find any outlet and Dunk's diagonal balls to Knockaert were also cut off. Skalak is much better at retaining possession with his back to goal and we really need to be better at retaining possession.

Official Old Man · Feb 5, 2017

OK, so I've got the usual spreadsheet to insert my expected result from all the remaining games. Initially putting in what is possible rather than reality (ie there is no reason why, after today, Leeds could only drop 6 points by May). Look at Huddersfield. Take each game at a time. Beat Leeds then there aways are QPR, Rotherham, Barnsley,Wolves, Bristol C, Forest, Derby & Birmingham. No reason why they cant win all of those.
At the same time look at Brighton. Too many games where we can draw or lose (Barnsley, Reading, Newcastle, Derby & Leeds)
I'm convinced more than one team will reach 90 pts this season.

lyma1979 · Feb 5, 2017

These tables are usually reasonably accurate predictions by this time in the season and on this basis whatever the final points are there are quite big margins for error to come in the top two. They have predicted we will lose to Brentford, Leeds, AV & Draw with Newcastle and four others .

http://http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/league/predicted

CheeseRolls · Feb 5, 2017

It was only a point, one measly point. Statistically it shouldn't make much difference but what a psychological boost. We have a team that won't lie down

P29 GD +9 P53 Fifth (I think - Stato down this time)
P29 GD +23 P61 Second

Still eight points and 14 goals clear of last season. Can we regroup with a couple of winnable home games?

Those of a nervous disposition please check https://experimental361.com/2017/02/05/e-ratings-update-championship-5-feb-2017/

"The title race looks to be neck and neck, with Newcastle and Brighton maintaining a firm grip on the two automatic promotion spots. Despite surges from the likes of Huddersfield they’ll need either an insanely good run-in or a collapse from one of the top two to break the current duopoly."

warmleyseagull · Feb 5, 2017

lyma1979 said:
These tables are usually reasonably accurate predictions by this time in the season and on this basis whatever the final points are there are quite big margins for error to come in the top two. They have predicted we will lose to Brentford, Leeds, AV & Draw with Newcastle and four others .

http://http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/league/predicted

Good start then. Point ahead.

chaileyjem · Feb 11, 2017

After 30 games last season we were 4th with 56 points having just beaten Bolton 3-2 at Home.
So we're currently + 8 points , + 16 GD being 2nd (probably) with 64 points and +26 GD.

Our next game (31) was v table toppers Hull. 0-0 on a Tuesday night. Game (32) was v Cardiff (1-4) and we were then unbeaten for rest of season.

lancyclaret · Feb 11, 2017

You were unlucky that Burnley won 11 and drew 4 of their last 15 games - that sort of run does not happen very often.

Marshy · Feb 11, 2017

lancyclaret said:
You were unlucky that Burnley won 11 and drew 4 of their last 15 games - that sort of run does not happen very often.

I think our run was similar and we still didn't make any ground up !

CheeseRolls · Feb 12, 2017

chaileyjem said:
After 30 games last season we were 4th with 56 points having just beaten Bolton 3-2 at Home.
So we're currently + 8 points , + 16 GD being 2nd (probably) with 64 points and +26 GD.

View attachment 82093

Our next game (31) was v table toppers Hull. 0-0 on a Tuesday night. Game (32) was v Cardiff (1-4) and we were then unbeaten for rest of season.

It is good to see the table laid out as it demonstrates a couple of things;

From here on in we turned a three point deficit on Hull into a 6 point surplus. That nine point shift is the warning, however despite an excellent run that doesn't start for a couple more games yet, we couldn't shift Burnley or Middlesbrough.

Taking the nine points as a working threshold, at this point we can right off Leeds as a threat, 10 points a game in hand plus superior GD, rules them out for now. Our visit to Elland Road should confirm this one way or another.

Looking through the run ins of the top four, you really have to fancy Huddersfield over Reading. Fixtures wise Huddersfield have a long run of winnable games where as Reading really will have to do it the hard way. It seems unlikely and they may even miss out on the play offs. If there is only one threat to auto promotion, we need to focus on Newcastle to make sure they are the ones that get caught and not us.

Outside the play-offs Norwich appear the emerging threat and the team to avoid. Our April fixture there looks trickier than the trip to Villa right now.

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