This time last season

Machiavelli · Feb 14, 2017

To add to my previous post:
2015/16
The top two have 116 points after 59 games
The play-off teams have 216 points after 123 games
2016/17
The top two have 129 points after 60 games
The play-off teams have 221 points after 122 games
In other words, both the top two and the next four have higher points totals than last year, the former especially.

DavePage · Feb 14, 2017

KingKev said:
112?

Is the correct answer

KingKev · Feb 14, 2017

Machiavelli said:
At least someone has an understanding of the history of this. I'd be amazed if more than two teams get 90 or more points. We managed 89 last season, but I'd sincerely doubt whether the third placed team manages that much, although they may well come very close.

On the one hand I'm not so sure - Toon and BHA are as well set for 90-plus as anyone has been for some time. Hudds would be in the same boat other than a big wobble after we beat them, and they've already proven they can beat the better sides as well as the no-hopers. They don't need more than 2 points a game to hit 90. That is not a heroic task - difficult but not impossible

On the other hand I sort of agree - for example if we fall off 90-plus point form I can see us tailing off and finishing some way below that. Same for Hudds..Toon I'm not sure.

CheeseRolls · Feb 15, 2017

Did I not enjoy that !
We have an eight point buffer over our former selves and a 16 goal buffer, so no need to panic.....however

Huddersfield would have been top rather than third, although Middlesbrough had a game in hand. The Experimental 361 model is now predicting that just beating last season's achievement would only be good enough for third.

BrianWade4 · Feb 15, 2017

God, I hope that's right

chaileyjem · Feb 18, 2017

This time last season we'd been thumped at lunchtime 4-1 by Cardiff which left us still only 3 points of the top with 57 points. Blimey.
We didn't lose again all season and our next 2 games were 4-0 thumpings of Bristol, Leeds.

Any repeat in 2017 next Saturday and Tuesday...If only. Then we all really will be dreaming.

So we're currently +11 points and + 21 in terms of GD compared to 2015/16.

CheeseRolls · Feb 19, 2017

We're on our way, we're on our way.

I had to post this one. Rotherham 100% nailed on for relegation.....according to the model. Yes pedants they can still win every single game and stay up, there is currently no evidence that they have a cat in hells chance of doing this.

Meanwhile our promotion chances are sitting at over 90%, with Reading and Leeds just about hanging on to a slim chance of promotion. February should sort them out.

11 points clear of last season, plus goal difference effectively marks us at 12, that is quite a cushion. Matches against contenders will now dictate if beating last season's effort is enough. Newcastle, Reading and Leeds the biggies.

Triggaaar · Feb 19, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
I had to post this one. Rotherham 100% nailed on for relegation.....according to the model. Yes pedants they can still win every single game and stay up

I just got an alert - I don't think you need pedants to get involved here, the fact that it's mathematically possible for Rotherham to stay up doesn't mean it should show up on the model.

Meanwhile our promotion chances are sitting at over 90%, with Reading and Leeds just about hanging on to a slim chance of promotion.

Our chances have fallen somewhat, while Sheffield's have increased a lot in recent weeks. I don't think the model is very accurate though.

CheeseRolls · Feb 19, 2017

Triggaaar said:
I just got an alert - I don't think you need pedants to get involved here, the fact that it's mathematically possible for Rotherham to stay up doesn't mean it should show up on the model.

Agreed

Our chances have fallen somewhat, while Sheffield's have increased a lot in recent weeks. I don't think the model is very accurate though.

So which way do you see the bias?

Triggaaar · Feb 19, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
So which way do you see the bias?

It's a statistical model, the author doesn't suggest it's more than that, so I'm just commenting on the accuracy of the model. There are many things it doesn't take into account:
1) Changes to the team:
Improvements to the squad
Injuries
A manager getting a team to play his way
2) A team's ability to score when they have to, or the team spirit
3) How good a team's strikers are (the model looks at the type of shot and how likely that type is to go in, without accounting for how good the striker is)
4) How good a team's goalkeeper is (as above, the model looks at they type of shot, and ignores how a good keeper can affect the chances of it going in)

I think the model is underplaying Huddersfield's chances.

Peter Grummit · Feb 19, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
We're on our way, we're on our way.

I had to post this one. Rotherham 100% nailed on for relegation.....according to the model. Yes pedants they can still win every single game and stay up, there is currently no evidence that they have a cat in hells chance of doing this.

View attachment 82315

Meanwhile our promotion chances are sitting at over 90%, with Reading and Leeds just about hanging on to a slim chance of promotion. February should sort them out.

11 points clear of last season, plus goal difference effectively marks us at 12, that is quite a cushion. Matches against contenders will now dictate if beating last season's effort is enough. Newcastle, Reading and Leeds the biggies.

A pedant may not be needed but a fact correction is. The model currently predicts we are 90% to finish top 2. Promotion is more likely.

PG

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

Ernest · Feb 19, 2017

chaileyjem said:
This time last season we'd been thumped at lunchtime 4-1 by Cardiff which left us still only 3 points of the top with 57 points. Blimey.
We didn't lose again all season and our next 2 games were 4-0 thumpings of Bristol, Leeds.

Any repeat in 2017 next Saturday and Tuesday...If only. Then we all really will be dreaming.

View attachment 82308

So we're currently +11 points and + 21 in terms of GD compared to 2015/16.

And Hull who were top didn't even finish in the top 3 which is a sobering thought before YOU get carried away

CheeseRolls · Feb 19, 2017

Peter Grummit said:
A pedant may not be needed but a fact correction is. The model currently predicts we are 90% to finish top 2. Promotion is more likely.

PG

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

Hmmm still makes that over 90%! but you are right that is not exactly what the model is saying.

chaileyjem · Feb 19, 2017

Good to see how far ahead we are every previous season in Amex, not just last year.
This time in previous seasons after 32 games...

2015/16: +11 points 4th P32: 57 points (Hull were 1st : 60 -31 games)
2014/15: +34 points 20th P32: 34 points (Derby 1st: 62 )
2013/14: +19 points 8th P32: 49 points (Leicester 1st: 71 )
2012/13: +19 points 7th: P32 49 points (Cardiff 1st 67)
2011/12: +18 points 9th: P32: 50 points (Southampton 1st 62 - 33 games)

Hughton:
2009/10: + 2 points 1st : P32: 66 points (Newcastle - finished 1st with 102).

CheeseRolls · Feb 26, 2017

Like last year the top 6 are starting to look pretty settled and my theory is that when this comes to the play offs, the lower ranked sides should have something of an advantage, knowing that their preparation is towards winning the play offs, rather than straining to make second place. The fact that Hull slumped from the top of the table and yet came back to win at Wembley of course, blows this theory out of the water and just goes to show the play offs are a total lottery best to be avoided. :amex:

Huddersfield dropping points away at Barnsley, whilst welcome in these parts is not quite as catastrophic a blow as a home draw against Bristol City, who have looked like whipping boys for weeks.Reading lived up to the Experimental 3-6-1 analysis as over-rated. I think they looked slightly better than Leeds at the Amex and it is interesting that Leeds away looks one of our tougher encounters remaining post Tuesday.

Expect to see lots of graphics from the various models reproduced here next Sunday.

Rugrat · Feb 26, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
Expect to see lots of graphics from the various models reproduced here next Sunday.

Why wait? 98 Chickens, more than enough!

Super Steve Earle · Feb 26, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
View attachment 82510
View attachment 82509

Like last year the top 6 are starting to look pretty settled and my theory is that when this comes to the play offs, the lower ranked sides should have something of an advantage, knowing that their preparation is towards winning the play offs, rather than straining to make second place. The fact that Hull slumped from the top of the table and yet came back to win at Wembley of course, blows this theory out of the water and just goes to show the play offs are a total lottery best to be avoided.

Huddersfield dropping points away at Barnsley, whilst welcome in these parts is not quite as catastrophic a blow as a home draw against Bristol City, who have looked like whipping boys for weeks.Reading lived up to the Experimental 3-6-1 analysis as over-rated. I think they looked slightly better than Leeds at the Amex and it is interesting that Leeds away looks one of our tougher encounters remaining post Tuesday.

Expect to see lots of graphics from the various models reproduced here next Sunday.

Leeds away may look tougher, but we have won 4 from our last 5 encounters at Elland Road, so you could almost call it one of our favourite away grounds.

Triggaaar · Feb 26, 2017

CheeseRolls said:
my theory is that when this comes to the play offs, the lower ranked sides should have something of an advantage, knowing that their preparation is towards winning the play offs, rather than straining to make second place. The fact that Hull slumped from the top of the table and yet came back to win at Wembley of course, blows this theory out of the water and just goes to show the play offs are a total lottery best to be avoided.

With a couple of games to go last season, the other playoff teams knew they were in the playoffs, so they were able to rest players - that includes Hull. We had to fight to the last minute, so we were knackered. We don't yet know whether the team in 6th place will get a breather before the end or not. I'd like to see Fulham get in the playoffs (if we're not there).

Triggaaar · Feb 26, 2017

Rugrat said:
Why wait? 98 Chickens, more than enough!

View attachment 82513

Do you keep changing your predictions after each round of games?

Rugrat · Feb 26, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Do you keep changing your predictions after each round of games?

To some extent, form, injuries, suspensions but mostly my confidence (Newcastle now a win vs a draw before yesterday)

Also like to think I keep a bit of contingency but that's very debatable.

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