[Politics] Brexit

JC Footy Genius · Oct 13, 2016

El Presidente said:
You had one of those too?

Oh yes ... *shudder*.

nicko31 · Oct 13, 2016

Typical Supermarkets trying to bully suppliers, they've been doing it for decades. If you are Unilever you can stand up to them, if you're the little man you're screwed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37639518

Apparently there want to increase prices 10% due to the pounds fall, seems perfectly reasonable. Even if some of the stuff made is the UK will be reliant on global comodities

ManOfSussex · Oct 13, 2016

Everything's going to be just fine because John Redwood has said so:

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/10/13/a-new-relationship-with-business/

Yesterday in the Commons I spoke of the need to reduce the uncertainties and disagreements following the vote to leave the EU.

Business is right to chide politicians to be more precise and to reduce the worries they have There are three main ways to do this.

The first is to rule out the need to negotiate over large areas where we need to take back control. You cannot negotiate taking back control. We need to resume decision making over our laws, our money and our borders. Saying these are not up for negotiations greatly simplifies the task.

The second is to make a generous offer on trade, where we do need to reach an agreement over how we trade with the rest of the EU in future. We should offer trade tariff free with no new service trade barriers. it’s a generous offer, and would make sense for the continent to welcome it. I have still not heard any continental government Ministers demanding that tariffs be placed in the way of their exports to the UK, so it should be pleasing to them. Nor would they wish to lose their financial passports to London.

The third is to have a rock solid fall back position which does not require any positive decision by the rest of the EU, just in case Remain are right and the Commission does make the member states damage their own trade with us. We are founder members of the World Trade Organisation and can therefore file a schedule of tariffs with them under the MFN procedure, using the current EU schedules. We could trade reasonably well using this, just as the USA, China and others do into the EU at the moment without special trade deals. It would also mean the Uk government had a substantial revenue from the tariffs on rest of the EU exports to us, which could be given back to UK consumers in various ways.

There is absolutely no need to pay money into the EU budget in order to import products from the EU. There is no need to trade freedom of movement for the exchange of goods.

There is no need to spend two years sorting this out. If we rely on existing trade terms it could be much quicker.

Icy Gull · Oct 13, 2016

Blue Valkyrie said:
I didn't vote Leave, but surely there will be no benefit until we actually have left - which is a while off yet.

Right, so two more years of uncertainty, a weak pound and rising costs to look forward to before there is even a glimmer of a hope of recovery then?

Sounds fun and at least my pension fund may continue to grow

deletebeepbeepbeep · Oct 13, 2016

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/which-eu-law-are-you-looking-forward-to-losing/

Hastings gull · Oct 13, 2016

mwrpoole said:
I voted remain but most of my family and lots of friends voted leave. There no.1 reason was immigration, plain and simple. They liked the idea of closing down the borders to help alleviate housing/NHS/schools plus some were a bit more 'too many of them live near me' attitude. I don't see how the remain camp can be blamed for that.

I think you are being a touch naïve here. Had "remain" been the decision, then that would surely have meant continued open house to anyone in the EU, which clearly scared many voters, particularly in areas most likely to be affected, and of course in the background one must add to this immigration from the "non EU". So the remain camp can indeed be blamed. Yes, the remainers might have been more concerned with other factors such as the economy, but continued high levels of immigration would have been the inevitable consequence.

beorhthelm · Oct 13, 2016

nicko31 said:
Apparently there want to increase prices 10% due to the pounds fall, seems perfectly reasonable. Even if some of the stuff made is the UK will be reliant on global comodities

it might be reasonable if their costs had risen 10%, they haven't. Unilever is the bully here, rising their price across the board or withholding new stock, so says the Grocer magazine. Tescos are the first to publicly say no thanks.

pb21 · Oct 13, 2016

JC Footy Genius said:
Thought that was the main reason for visiting this thread .. especially if reading The Clamp's mainly frivolous contributions.

Getting back to the substantive issue. According to 'expert' opinion (IMF, Economists etc) the pound has been overvalued for some time. Forecasts (in 2015) predicted it could fall as low as $1.15 this year. As we know these expert opinions were gospel when it suited the Remain argument so at best I suppose people could say the Brexit vote has facilitated this inevitable readjustment.

JC Footy Genius said:
Now you're just making stuff up. When did I ever mention 2016?

Option one you have difficulty reading/comprehending English.

Option two you enjoy deliberately misinterpreting information rather than admit your initial scepticism was misplaced.

Option three You are in fact my ex wife who would claim night was day and continuously argue the toss about it.

I have highlighted the pertinent bit, where you say:

"Forecasts (in 2015) predicted it could fall as low as $1.15 this year."

Now unless you think this year isn't 2016 (quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised), then this is where you mention 2016 in your claim that the IMF and economists etc. have said that £ would fall as low as $1.15 in 2016.

scamander · Oct 13, 2016

Hastings gull said:
I think you are being a touch naïve here. Had "remain" been the decision, then that would surely have meant continued open house to anyone in the EU, which clearly scared many voters, particularly in areas most likely to be affected, and of course in the background one must add to this immigration from the "non EU". So the remain camp can indeed be blamed. Yes, the remainers might have been more concerned with other factors such as the economy, but continued high levels of immigration would have been the inevitable consequence.

Both campaigns were aimed at the lowest common denominator. Remain needed to steal away from the perception of being 'soft', they also could have played more on the positives from the EU. In the entire campaign when did you hear about EU funding for a local enterprise or something which benefited a community? Leave framed the argument as anything but voting for them was essentially an open door to anyone.

Craig Oliver (Cameron's spin doctor) has written a book about referendum. I've only read/heard extracts but it seems the remain camp were confident of a win, over confident. To use a footballing analogy they were the team who expected to win purely by turning up, they simply didn't have a plan to counter the Brexit claims/arguments and had totally underestimated the traction they had.

Soulman · Oct 13, 2016

nicko31 said:
Typical Supermarkets trying to bully suppliers, they've been doing it for decades. If you are Unilever you can stand up to them, if you're the little man you're screwed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37639518

Apparently there want to increase prices 10% due to the pounds fall, seems perfectly reasonable. Even if some of the stuff made is the UK will be reliant on global comodities

Good for Tesco I say. Unilever jumping on the Brexit bandwagon. I hope other supermarkets follow suit.
Hate marmite anyway.

BigGully · Oct 13, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
1) I'm not quite sure what you mean by making up a scenario? What scenario are you talking about?
2) Economic indicators come in many measures. Lack of confidence in a nation's currency is certainly one. And given the amount of money which has been leaving the UK since the vote coupled with the sharp drop in value immediately after the vote coupled with a similar decline after May's recent conference uttering a I can only assume these are linked. FTSE is mixed; it's more international by definition so any business which receives dollar or euros will benefit. Strictly UK trading businesses are, generally, clearly struggling. I wouldn't use this as a measure. UK unemployment has been ****ed for a while. So, to answer your question I will settle on currency. Can you go beyond your usual saloon bar platitudes and explain your reasoning?

The scenario was that you cited a 10% extra fall of the currency and its associated consequences, although you nor I could know why an extra 10% devaluation would be likely, it was a total guess without any foundation, it really is that simple.

You have now nailed your colours to the mast and said that sterling, for some reason is your indicator of choice, so we shall see, although you have not offered any real gauge why this should be seen as your critical indicator, its just thats in the news and you seem to be running with it.

For me I know an uber weak sterling will effect imports and put pressure on prices as it will similarly help exporters, knowing that we are a net importer I understand that dynamic.

However I dont see it as a longer term situation anyhow, contrary to you position I like what I see in the UK, a large and comparably successful economy, if as you say sterling represents a nations worth then I suspect it will bounce back to a sustainable level that will do no harm at all.

JC Footy Genius · Oct 13, 2016

pb21 said:
I have highlighted the pertinent bit, where you say:

"Forecasts (in 2015) predicted it could fall as low as $1.15 this year."

Now unless you think this year isn't 2016 (quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised), then this is where you mention 2016 in your claim that the IMF and economists etc. have said that £ would fall as low as $1.15 in 2016.

Ah I see where you got 2016 from. Yes I should have said forecast of $1.15 was for 2017.

pb21 · Oct 13, 2016

JC Footy Genius said:
Ah I see where you got 2016 from. Yes I should have said forecast of $1.15 was for 2017.

OK fair enough!

Herr Tubthumper · Oct 13, 2016

BigGully said:
The scenario was that you cited a 10% extra fall of the currency and its associated consequences, although you nor I could know why an extra 10% devaluation would be likely, it was a total guess without any foundation, it really is that simple..

You clearly didn't read what I typed then. I quoted a financial article that said IF the currency dropped another 10%. The article, not me!, didn't say it would, it didn't say it wouldn't....merely what they felt would happen.... if. If you do think it was a total guess on their part take it out with them.

DavidinSouthampton · Oct 13, 2016

pastafarian said:
Hard or soft options are subjective.
Does leaving The European Union mean leaving the clutches of the ECJ or remaining in it......im sure you know the answer.

I think the ECJ is a red herring at the moment. The main question is about hard or soft Brexit. We leave the European Union, but what do we negotiate thereafter as a relationship with them.

And it's not going to be easy. Wake up and smell the Marmite - sorry, coffee.

smeg · Oct 13, 2016

bashlsdir said:
May be some of us voted Leave because we want something new, we shouldn't be called morons or wankers, it's just not very nice.
If you want to blame someone, blame the banks, politicians and the EU. It is their decisions that got us here, nobody else.

I'm not sure where to begin with this, i've read it three times to try and determine if your having a laugh! There is pretty much no logic in voting leave unless you were politically motivated and claiming to being close to the margins financially and voting that way is simply an error for so many reasons. The banks, politicians and EU suffer how? On the other hand most short and medium term projections for the future are talking about instability, higher prices and challenges, plus its going to overseen by an un-elected more right wing flavour of the Conservatives who historically could care less about the working class. If you thought times were hard before the vote :cheers:

strap your self in, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Herr Tubthumper · Oct 13, 2016

BigGully said:
You have now nailed your colours to the mast and said that sterling, for some reason is your indicator of choice, so we shall see, although you have not offered any real gauge why this should be seen as your critical indicator, its just thats in the news and you seem to be running with it.

I gave you two reasons; see the post you quoted. Are you actually processing what I'm writing as I'm constantly having to pick you up on things you are overlooking. It's pointless having a debate with you like this especially when all you offer up about the future is the vague "I like what I see, a large and successful economy." If I were to counter this with "I don't like what I see" you might realise what an empty saloon bar statement you have made.

Let's leave it here.

Herr Tubthumper · Oct 13, 2016

Complimentary Prosecco on my flight instead of the usual Champagne. Looks like Brexit Britain is starting to bite hard.

Mo Gosfield · Oct 13, 2016

smeg said:
I'm not sure where to begin with this, i've read it three times to try and determine if your having a laugh! There is pretty much no logic in voting leave unless you were politically motivated and claiming to being close to the margins financially and voting that way is simply an error for so many reasons. The banks, politicians and EU suffer how? On the other hand most short and medium term projections for the future are talking about instability, higher prices and challenges, plus its going to overseen by an un-elected more right wing flavour of the Conservatives who historically could care less about the working class. If you thought times were hard before the vote strap your self in, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

It is indeed.....and when the EU crashes and burns, as it will inevitably do, it will get even bumpier....but that doesn't seem to come into the equation with those on here shouting and screaming how terrible it is at present and how our decision to leave the Promised Land is the worst decision in our history.
Just wait....you ain't seen nothing yet....just imagine.....a whole cluster of independent sovereign states all desperate to negotiate new deals and all at the same time....absolute chaos. An open market again....no protectionism...if you think it is volatile at the moment....this doesn't bear thinking about.

Soulman · Oct 13, 2016

Mo Gosfield said:
It is indeed.....and when the EU crashes and burns, as it will inevitably do, it will get even bumpier....but that doesn't seem to come into the equation with those on here shouting and screaming how terrible it is at present and how our decision to leave the Promised Land is the worst decision in our history.
Just wait....you ain't seen nothing yet....just imagine.....a whole cluster of independent sovereign states all desperate to negotiate new deals and all at the same time....absolute chaos. An open market again....no protectionism...if you think it is volatile at the moment....this doesn't bear thinking about.

Good post. Many think and feel the same way.
We are getting out of this dying and very expensive club at the right time in my opinion. Hopefully we can Brexit before the downfall.

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