[Politics] Brexit

clapham_gull · Oct 23, 2019

Marshy said:
Surely if a Gen Election is called Labour will replace Corbyn first … because they can't win with him in charge.

Can't see them calling a leadership bid. It isn't really about winning now, it's about stopping Boris and his disaster crew.

I'd imagine if Labour and Lib Dems form a coalition, then Lib Dems will refuse to allow Corbyn to be PM. That's what the Lib Dems demanded when they had talks last time before the coalition.

How that works in practice with the Labour party constitution, I have no idea.

Notters · Oct 23, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University undisputed GOD of Polls believes another referendum would be far too close to call ...

Few voters have changed their minds

Third, very few voters on either side of the argument have changed their minds about whether the UK should leave the EU. The country appears to be just as divided as it was three years ago.

On average, during the last month, polls that ask people how they would vote in another referendum suggest that 88% of those who backed Remain would do so again. Among those who voted Leave, 86% have not changed their minds.

These figures have changed very little during the last two years.

True, most polls suggest - and have done so for some time - that the balance of opinion might be tilted narrowly in favour of remaining a member of the EU. On average, this is by 53% to 47%.

However, this lead for Remain rests primarily on the views expressed by those who did not vote three years ago - and perhaps might not do so again.

In truth, nobody can be sure what would happen if there were to be another referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

It's not just about people changing their minds is it, it's about people dying and being replaced with new young people. I assume he's not suggesting that none of the people who've reached the age of 18 over the last three years would vote?

Driver8 · Oct 23, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
Indeed - far too fine a margin to result in any harmony afterwards.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

The margin will increase over time as the Gammons die off.

Pavilionaire · Oct 23, 2019

It is clear what message each of the Tories, Lib Dem and SNP will be proclaiming at the next General Election.

What I'm not sure about it the angle Labour will take.

Boris has won a vote on Brexit in Parliament. He is not Theresa May. He has established a rapport with Trump and a working relationship with the EU leaders. Boris has promised to cut taxes and introduce an austerity-busting Queen's Speech full of voter-friendly policies.

Labour will feel the heat in SNP Scotland, the Lib Dems can only increase their number of seats with their 'Bollocks to Brexit' message that will go down well in the Remainer heartlands.

It looks as though Labour have left it too late to replace Corbyn before the next GE, and whilst he is a passionate speaker that will get you traction when you're dealing with the characterless Theresa May and her austerity government it is difficult to see him making a mark in the next GE.

To my mind Labour's only hope of gaining sufficient seats - to have any hope even of a Lib-Lab coalition- was to somehow get through to people on the Grand Deception that was Brexit, and the wayto have done that was have Starmer as leader with passionate Deputies that can appeal to those voters from the Midlands and the North they desperately need to win back, like Angela Rayner, Richard Burgon, Jon Ashworth, and move away from that London-centric clique feel that is Corbyn, McDonnell, Thornberry, Diane Abbott.

ManOfSussex · Oct 23, 2019

clapham_gull said:
He's wrong though and Andrew Bridgen isn't the smartest of Tory MPs. He was the one who was convinced anyone living in England could simply apply for an Irish passport.

Just look at their votes in the indicative votes. They have been very consistent post referendum, they are soft Brexiteers.

As I mentioned there is an internal war going on around those who advise Boris. Those who want it to go through Parliament democratically and those who don't like the probable consensus Parliament will come to.

There is a similar disagreement going on the Brexit party. Many members are pissed with Farage and his "no deal or nothing" line.

The irony is the two people pushing the disaster capitalism line (Farage and Cummings) absolutely loath each other.

In fairness to Bridgen, that did seem to be the point he was making though - they weren't voting for the second reading for the same end state Brexit he was.

Marshy · Oct 23, 2019

clapham_gull said:
Can't see them calling a leadership bid. It isn't really about winning now, it's about stopping Boris and his disaster crew.

I'd imagine if Labour and Lib Dems form a coalition, then Lib Dems will refuse to allow Corbyn to be PM. That's what the Lib Dems demanded when they had talks last time before the coalition.

How that works in practice with the Labour party constitution, I have no idea.

Oh no, its all about winning when push comes to shove.

Westdene Seagull · Oct 23, 2019

Simster said:
The one that shows remain winning in a poll of polls chart?

The Clamp said:
I think I can now safely speak for the vast, vast majority of the U.K. when I say that let’s just hope in a few months time we are able to say “thank god we remained in the EU, we almost destroyed ourselves”, rather than the still possible scenario where we say “what on Earth have we done to ourselves”

There are very few who could now, in all good faith disagree with this sentiment.

The Clamp said:
Did you?

The Clamp said:
Gee whizz! That’s about the simplest graph one could ever be asked to interpret. And you got it wrong.

Feel free to explain to me how the graph shows, and I quote, a "vast, vast majority" in favour of remaining ? I think it's you two that need to learn how to read a graph !

The Clamp · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Feel free to explain to me how the graph shows, and I quote, a "vast, vast majority" in favour of remaining ? I think it's you two that need to learn how to read a graph !

Oh dear. Getting a little angry?!

Westdene Seagull · Oct 23, 2019

The Clamp said:
Oh dear. Getting a little angry?!

You're looking a little stupid aren't you ? That graph indicated a very small majority in favour of remaining, ironically almost the identical reverse of the referendum, yet according to you it's a vast, vast majority in favour of remain now. I guess the four letter word 'vast' is a bit difficult to understand for a simpleton like you.

I'm not angry at all - just laughing because someone that likes to shout 'thicko' at leavers has shown themselves up to be a thicko.

ManOfSussex · Oct 23, 2019

Notters said:
It's not just about people changing their minds is it, it's about people dying and being replaced with new young people. I assume he's not suggesting that none of the people who've reached the age of 18 over the last three years would vote?

My older brother is a sixth form teacher in West Sussex. He did a degree, then a PGCE, as most people on his original course ended up doing - so he knows a lot of teachers around the country and they all apparently say the same thing - kids like the ones they teach have become enthused politically by what happened in 2016 like nothing before and it's all for remain or rejoin. Second referendum or one to rejoin, he's quite sanguine about it all. That's only his opinion though.

The Clamp · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
You're looking a little stupid aren't you ? That graph indicated a very small majority in favour of remaining, ironically almost the identical reverse of the referendum, yet according to you it's a vast, vast majority in favour of remain now. I guess the four letter word 'vast' is a bit difficult to understand for a simpleton like you.

I'm not angry at all - just laughing because someone that likes to shout 'thicko' at leavers has shown themselves up to be a thicko.

Perhaps my perception is not based solely on one graph. So carry on getting angry and frustrated. People don’t want Brexit. Get used to it.

Westdene Seagull · Oct 23, 2019

The Clamp said:
Perhaps my perception is not based solely on one graph. So carry on getting angry and frustrated. People don’t want Brexit. Get used to it.

Oh dear, they're getting Brexit anyway.

Marshy · Oct 23, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
My older brother is a sixth form teacher in West Sussex. He did a degree, then a PGCE, as most people on his original course ended up doing - so he knows a lot of teachers around the country and they all apparently say the same thing - kids like the ones they teach have become enthused politically by what happened in 2016 like nothing before and it's all for remain or rejoin. Second referendum or one to rejoin, he's quite sanguine about it all. That's only his opinion though.

Absolutely, having sons of 17 and 12 they are far more politically engaged than I ever was at that age, all because of Brexit, which I think is a good thing if nothing else.

The Clamp · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Oh dear, they're getting Brexit anyway.

Maybe.

Westdene Seagull · Oct 23, 2019

Plooks said:
You have your head in the sand like the rest of your brediteering racist MINORITY.

Shove over, you've got Nibble joining you on the stupid step.

The Clamp · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Shove over, you've got Nibble joining you on the stupid step.

You’re so easy to rile. Such a brexiteer cliche. It’s your immediate reaction when your mistakes are pointed out. Like a spoilt child on his first day at nursery.

Lever · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Strange, you've made numerous posts complaining about leavers use of language and insults ( even when not aimed specifically at you ) yet never pull up a fellow remainer for doing the same - especially Chooper who appears to have a special skill of diplomacy ( well he's special anyway ). Then when a leaver complains of EXACTLY the same type of language and insults you suggest there's something the matter with her.

On second thoughts, strange isn't the correct word, hypocrite is.

I think you should reflect a bit more carefully before using that term... your behaviour often seems to meet the same criteria.
Perhaps you just hadn't noticed.....

Is it PotG? · Oct 23, 2019

Plooks said:
You have your head in the sand like the rest of your brediteering racist MINORITY.

Bit of a generalised statement, not that I expected any better.

WATFORD zero · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
But the 'new' deal is about 90% the same of the May deal. So they should definitely have read the May deal. Equally, it was only 110 pages - how long does it take to read 110 pages ?

So have you read these 11 pages (your own estimate) and decided whether these 11 pages turn it from the 'Vassal State' deal of May's to your 'good deal' that you have championed all along

Maybe you missed the last 3 times I've asked whether this is your 'good deal'

WATFORD zero · Oct 23, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Oh dear, they're getting Brexit anyway.

On October 31st, just like they did on 31st March and 12th April ?

That stupid step looks like it might be getting a little crowded :lolol:

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