[Politics] Brexit

ManOfSussex · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
Ah, assume that everyone who didn't vote would have agreed with you.

Good plan.

Fact is a deal is done. Stability and the end of uncertainty is around the corner.

Are you going to stick to your hard remain guns and refuse to compromise?

If you get your 2nd vote, you would lose it anyway, and many of you calling for a 2nd vote would then go on to refuse to accept it again.

Thank f*ck this will be over in less than two weeks.

Comic genius with your last line. Like it.

Mellotron · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
Well you would like to think that they wouldn't be so irresponsible as to drop a lit match on the carpet on their way out.

They may not have to face the consequences, but their parties will.

No doubt there are some of them who are "remain at all costs", but only a few with that extreme/hard view you would think.

It lost by 12 votes last time. TWELVE.

It was also the most popular option in the indicative votes, receiving 280 votes. More popular than Customs Union Brexit.

You are being deliberately disingenuous by trying to paint something that is very much a mainstream view as being "extreme".

Kinky Gerbil · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
Well you would like to think that they wouldn't be so irresponsible as to drop a lit match on the carpet on their way out.

They may not have to face the consequences, but their parties will.

No doubt there are some of them who are "remain at all costs", but only a few with that extreme/hard view you would think.

You are assuming they care about the party anymore - look how many have had whip withdrawn/left party.

Stat Brother · Oct 17, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Fishing must be your hobby Stat !!!

End of Union - Which Union ? The EU ? Good. The UK ? The Scots were always going to leave eventually.
Workers’ rights trashed - exactly what evidence is there of this ? All current EU legislation is to be transposed into UK law
Environmental protections ending - rubbish, we have better environmental laws than the EU
Huge hit to trade - in the short term
Huge slump in growth - a small slump in growth, the word huge is just project fear. Apparently we were due a HUGE slump in growth the moment we voted leave …. hmmm
Jobs going - some yes
Chlorinated chicken - what a load of scaremongering. Also, if it did happen ( which it won't ), just don't buy it if it bothers you that much
NHS for sale to US - yet again, project fear
End of right to work, retire & live in 30 countries - weird, I know people that worked in these countries before we joined the EU ( ECC ). People retired there before as well. People lived there before. Actually I know people that have done all three activities in countries OUTSIDE the EU. Who would have thought it ?? Project Fear again.

So you're basically saying:-

'We're better off in the EU, as they meet our basic needs, all the while the UK has still been able to improve up from that bottom line, but comparatively high standard'.

vegster · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
Ah, assume that everyone who didn't vote would have agreed with you.

Good plan.

Fact is a deal is done. Stability and the end of uncertainty is around the corner.

Are you going to stick to your hard remain guns and refuse to compromise?

If you get your 2nd vote, you would lose it anyway, and many of you calling for a 2nd vote would then go on to refuse to accept it again.

Thank f*ck this will be over in less than two weeks.

I'm really looking forwards to 3 weeks time, that's when Boris can bring in the ground-breaking legislation that will improve everybody's life which the EU has prevented us from doing for all these years !

Stat Brother · Oct 17, 2019

vegster said:
I'm really looking forwards to 3 weeks time, that's when Boris can bring in the ground-breaking legislation that will improve everybody's life which the EU has prevented us from doing for all these years !

It's know wonder we are where we are if people genuinely believe it'll all be over in 3 weeks time.

dingodan · Oct 17, 2019

Mellotron said:
No I didn't. I said Leave hasn't been the preferred option since early 2017. That is broadly true, and the stats back that up.

I never said Leave hasn't won a single poll since early 2017, simply that the preferred option - i.e. the general consensus - has been Pro-Remain.

No it hasn't.

When leave with a deal, and leave with no deal collectively get more than remain, that is a preference for leaving. It's not a preference for remaining.

Kinky Gerbil · Oct 17, 2019

Nigel Farage [MENTION=17857]Nigel[/MENTION]_Farage
So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave.

He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability.

Appalling people.

He is fuming hun.

dingodan · Oct 17, 2019

As an olive branch for remainers.

I don't think much will change in our relationship with the EU once we have left.

We are taking off the handcuffs, but only so we can hold hands instead.

Mo Gosfield · Oct 17, 2019

Mellotron said:
No I didn't. I said Leave hasn't been the preferred option since early 2017. That is broadly true, and the stats back that up.

I never said Leave hasn't won a single poll since early 2017, simply that the preferred option - i.e. the general consensus - has been Pro-Remain.

Oh dear God...please please don't tell me that there are sensible people out there still taking notice of opinion polls. They have been discredited over and over again. They got Brexit wrong, they got Trump wrong, they got GE 2017 wrong and they have got umpteen other elections wrong. We all know, if we cast individual bias aside that a 2nd ref would be very similar to the first.i.e close again. Hard line Leavers and Remainers are unchanged in opinion. Waverers pretty much balance each other out. It won't solve anything because whoever loses in a tight vote will demand ref no.3 ( or 4, whichever way you look at it )

JC Footy Genius · Oct 17, 2019

Mellotron said:
It lost by 12 votes last time. TWELVE.

It was also the most popular option in the indicative votes, receiving 280 votes. More popular than Customs Union Brexit.

You are being deliberately disingenuous by trying to paint something that is very much a mainstream view as being "extreme".

Wrong, the customs union lost by three.

C) Customs union (Ken Clarke)
AYES: 273 NOES: 276

E) Second Referendum (Peter Kyle)
AYES: 280 NOES: 292

https://brexitcentral.com/results-brexit-indicative-votes-ii-every-option-rejected/

Interestingly the Brady amendment requiring changes to the backstop passed with a majority, 317 votes to 301, Boris's deal removes that backstop completely which suggests it might get a majority although knowing the HoC they will probably find a reason to vote down any deal.

Mellotron · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
No it hasn't.

When leave with a deal, and leave with no deal collectively get more than remain, that is a preference for leaving. It's not a preference for remaining.

*Sigh*

Poll of Polls - Leave vs. Remain - conducted by (famously pro-Tory) YouGov.

See https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

I would link the two exact graphs here, however they are in an interactive format rather than a flat image.

Both show a clear pattern that since early 2017, Remain is consistently more popular than Leave.

Anthony Wells, director of political research at YouGov, said: “The polling evidence is concrete. The overwhelming majority of questions asking people if Brexit is right or wrong, or if they would now vote Remain or Leave, show a lead for Remain, and have done for over two years.

Stat Brother · Oct 17, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
Interestingly the Brady amendment requiring changes to the backstop passed with a majority, 317 votes to 301, Boris's deal removes that backstop completely which suggests it might get a majority although knowing the HoC they will probably find a reason to vote down any deal.

So is this a better deal than Terry May's last offering to the house?

Blue Valkyrie · Oct 17, 2019

Mo Gosfield said:
Oh dear God...please please don't tell me that there are sensible people out there still taking notice of opinion polls. They have been discredited over and over again. They got Brexit wrong, they got Trump wrong, they got GE 2017 wrong and they have got umpteen other elections wrong. We all know, if we cast individual bias aside that a 2nd ref would be very similar to the first.i.e close again. Hard line Leavers and Remainers are unchanged in opinion. Waverers pretty much balance each other out. It won't solve anything because whoever loses in a tight vote will demand ref no.3 ( or 4, whichever way you look at it )

Only a 65%+ win for either side would settle it. That will not happen.

Time to get this withdrawal agreement done and finally crush a *no deal* disaster-Brexit.

JC Footy Genius · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
As an olive branch for remainers.

I don't think much will change in our relationship with the EU once we have left.

We are taking off the handcuffs, but only so we can hold hands instead.

That's beautiful ... brings a tear tp the eye

Mellotron · Oct 17, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
Wrong, the customs union lost by three.

C) Customs union (Ken Clarke)
AYES: 273 NOES: 276

E) Second Referendum (Peter Kyle)
AYES: 280 NOES: 292

You know 280 is a bigger number than 273....right?

This is worrying.

JC Footy Genius · Oct 17, 2019

Stat Brother said:
So is this a better deal than Terry May's last offering to the house?

Oh yes much better, full steam ahead, Brexit here we come :wink:

Stat Brother · Oct 17, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
Oh yes much better, full steam ahead, Brexit here we come

Why?

Mellotron · Oct 17, 2019

Mo Gosfield said:
It won't solve anything because whoever loses in a tight vote will demand ref no.3 ( or 4, whichever way you look at it )

Actually they got Trump pretty much bang on, if you look at Nate Silver and 538's analysis - Clinton won the popular vote by millions. Brexit they were close on but the final polls were giving some wins to Brexit, so not massively wrong.

There is no 3rd or 4th referendum if this one is done correctly (i.e. legally binding so the Leave side cannot lie with impunity, and on SPECIFICS i.e. what type of Brexit). A 2nd ref ends it once and for all.

You are of course aware that if the 1st referendum had been legally binding, the results would've been declared legally null and void? That has been confirmed in a court of law due to the findings of the Electoral Commission.

Of course you knew that, sorry, don't mean to patronise.

Hugo Rune · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
Prediction:

HoC vote down the deal on Saturday.

Benn Act triggered.

Extension refused.

HoC pass the deal between Saturday and 31st.

Or

Prediction:

HoC vote down the deal on Saturday.

Benn Act triggered.

EU accept.

Vote Of No Confidence lost by government.

Opposition parties form temporary coalition.

Election called.

Tories record a record low MPs as No Deal Brexit Morons steak their votes.

Lab/Lib Dem coalition formed.

2nd Referendum ‘Law making not advisory’

Public vote 55% 45% to remain.

Law changed.

Brexit dead.

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