[Politics] Brexit

Mellotron · Oct 17, 2019

I could see this being win-win for Boris and Remainers.

Boris gets a deal - he’s done his bit. Labour now swinging behind 2nd ref which along with Lib Dem’s etc should now carry.

2nd referendum votes Remain.

Boris gets his majority in an election, as he did his part.

We get to not fall off an economic cliff.

I’d take 5 years of that ***** Government if it meant no Brexit.

dingodan · Oct 17, 2019

Stat Brother said:
Gun To Head politics.

Classy.

Not really, it's just time to bite the bullet.

ManOfSussex · Oct 17, 2019

I see Barnier has said the transition will last to December 2020, but could be extended by another year or two* if there's joint agreement.

* - More like 10 years.

Stat Brother · Oct 17, 2019

Pavilionaire said:
Why do you say you want it done? If you are a true Remainer you'll want Parliament to vote against it on Saturday because it's a crock of shite, then support moves for a Second Referendum, then campaign for Remain? Make no mistake, if we leave the EU it will be economic disaster AND take a decade to conclude trade deals that are not as good as we have at present.

and it will be far from 'over'.

In fact we'd only be at the start line of the marathon having struggled to put on our old timey diving suit.

Pavilionaire · Oct 17, 2019

Brighton Lines said:
I can see them granting an extension for election purposes. Johnson could sell that. Even the BREXIT Party are on board there now.

We know where this is going.

There is no point the DUP existing if they're going to roll over and let NI be treated differently from the rest of the UK.

By doing so they move away from London and towards Dublin and Brussels. Boris would be happy to throw NI under a bus if he had to, and it looks like he just has.

And when it becomes clear to people this isn't actually a "Deal", it is a Withdrawal Agreement, we stay in until 31 Dec 20 and pay £39 billion then it won't look so rosy.

Baldseagull · Oct 17, 2019

Brighton Lines said:
This could all have been over in March. Not seen the new 'deal' but, let's face it, it will be the old one with a few tweaky bits.

This has all been about the Tory party. Johnson, however, will successfully promote it as 'taking back control' when he said the opposite previously.

There will be a border down the Irish Sea, something he and the ERG were
vehemently opposed to. The rest is the May agreement and we know what they thought of that.

Still, even as a 'remainer', I want it done now. I totally oppose no deal, but hope this gets voted through.

It is only a victory for Johnson because it will be spun as such. It's a triumphant retreat without the promised spoils.

For those who insist on war analogies, this is more Dunkirk than VE Day.

A legal challenge to the deal will come in if there is a different customs arrangement for Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, the ERG put forward the legislation to make it illegal for the UK goverment to seek a deal that did that. Not sure if the dual customs status for Northern Ireland circumvents that successfully.

Stat Brother · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
Not really, it's just time to bite the bullet.

I see what you've done there...

...but I'm not sure you do.

whitelion · Oct 17, 2019

Live by the sea said:
Like him or not, Boris has done what he said he would. Corbyn must be fuming, he knows his days as labour leader are numbered. That in itself is good news. Perhaps Labour will return to a more moderate Labour Party that actually appeals to voters once Corbyn and his extreme lefty bullying cronies have gone.

To be fair Boris Johnson said the UK would be leaving the EU on 31st October. The UK parliament will block any deal I still feel.

dingodan · Oct 17, 2019

Brighton Lines said:
I can see them granting an extension for election purposes. Johnson could sell that. Even the BREXIT Party are on board there now.

We know where this is going.

I'd like to think we will be out by Nov 1.

Bold Seagull · Oct 17, 2019

Pavilionaire said:
There is no point the DUP existing if they're going to roll over and let NI be treated differently from the rest of the UK.

By doing so they move away from London and towards Dublin and Brussels. Boris would be happy to throw NI under a bus if he had to, and it looks like he just has.

He probably still has this one in the garage...

Tom Hark Preston Park · Oct 17, 2019

Surprise surprise the DUP do not back the deal. And neither does Corbyn

Blackadder · Oct 17, 2019

Stat Brother said:
and it will be far from 'over'.

In fact we'd only be at the start line of the marathon having struggled to put on our old timey diving suit.

As WC once said.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

Baldseagull · Oct 17, 2019

Tom Hark said:
Surprise surprise the DUP do not back the deal. And neither does Corbyn

For the first time ever I am interested in seeing Mark Francois interviewed on this.

ManOfSussex · Oct 17, 2019

Here it is - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sit...g_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf

Pavilionaire · Oct 17, 2019

whitelion said:
To be fair Boris Johnson said the UK would be leaving the EU on 31st October. The UK parliament will block any deal I still feel.

Yep, by rehashing May's Withdrawal Agreement he either gets parliament to vote Leave or - more likely - they vote against his Withdrawal Agreement and he gets to play his Boris and the People vs Parliament card in the next General Election, which I expect him to call over the weekend.

I expect Corbyn to lead the Opposition to a narrow win on Saturday but given the direction of travel - and after this latest Ellman business - big pressure will come down on Corbyn to resign and let someone else fight the General Election. Hilary Benn or Keir Starmer would be two strong candidates but because there is a process and the timescale is tight you wonder whether Tom Watson as Deputy could take over straight away.

Mellotron · Oct 17, 2019

dingodan said:
I'd like to think we will be out by Nov 1.

You can “like to think it”, but that’s definitely not going to happen. The ratification process takes months, for one thing.

Blue Valkyrie · Oct 17, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
I see Barnier has said the transition will last to December 2020, but could be extended by another year or two* if there's joint agreement.

* - More like 10 years.

10 years would be excellent as we'd retain all current trade deals and EEA access while we negotiate the Switzerland deal ( that the EU hate and probably don't want us to have - but at the end of the day is a Trade deal. Oh and Switzerland are trying to negotiate Financial Services into their deal now. Let's have some of that as well ).

Blue Valkyrie · Oct 17, 2019

Baldseagull said:
A legal challenge to the deal will come in if there is a different customs arrangement for Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, the ERG put forward the legislation to make it illegal for the UK goverment to seek a deal that did that. Not sure if the dual customs status for Northern Ireland circumvents that successfully.

Part of passing the deal in Parliament would have to be repealing Mogg's tax amendment.

dingodan · Oct 17, 2019

Everyone keeps saying, "it's May's deal" etc.

It's not, the key issues with that deal have been addressed. It was once said that the WA could not be changed under any circumstances. Fair play to the EU, they have compromised. We have addressed their concerns in relation to the Irish boarder. Compromise on both sides, and a new deal which deals with the objections to the old deal. If politicians were sincere in their objections to May's deal, then they should support this one I would have thought.

ManOfSussex · Oct 17, 2019

Baldseagull said:
For the first time ever I am interested in seeing Mark Francois interviewed on this.

There's quite a few I'm interested in hearing from.

Waiting for Nigel Farage's Twitter account to update has become almost as exciting as the football scores on Ceefax used to be.

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