[Politics] Brexit

A1X · Oct 9, 2019

midnight_rendezvous said:
The same polls that told us Remain would win, that Trump would lose and that, during May’s snap election, the Tories would win by a landslide? Ok then have fun with that.

Actually, the polls toold us it would be a close result but favoured a Remain win (although 4 of the last 10 polls had Leave wins), they showed that Hillary would win more of the vote than Trump (she did, it's the electoral college which saved his backside) and the polls narrowed increasingly during that campaign (indeed Survation the day before the election called it basically spot on).

A1X · Oct 9, 2019

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Basically he's screwed.

Baldseagull · Oct 9, 2019

Icy Gull said:
I don’t need to argue the point with you, if you choose to believe I am an outright liar, your prerogative.

I spend time in France and Spain and have seen the difference that EU money has made, I haven’t seen the same in the UK. I have no idea why commenting on this makes you keep doubting my being a remainer. I have not heard a single current politician who has made me think “yep this is the man or woman who can sort out this cluster****”. Hence I think we should put the patient out of it’s misery rather than have this dominate politics for the foreseeable future. Get out, have an election and let’s see where we go.

The above may be naive in the extreme, stupid even but it’s how I feel

If you have reached that level of exasperation, it is probably best you don't watch the news. It is not easy for politicians to sort this out, because we have given them an impossible goal, there is no good way forward from where we are, all options come with big difficulties attached.

midnight_rendezvous · Oct 9, 2019

A1X said:
Actually, the polls toold us it would be a close result but favoured a Remain win (although 4 of the last 10 polls had Leave wins), they showed that Hillary would win more of the vote than Trump (she did, it's the electoral college which saved his backside) and the polls narrowed increasingly during that campaign (indeed Survation the day before the election called it basically spot on).

I’ve conceded that the point I was attempting to make, that polls fluctuate and don’t always give accurate representations of public opinion, wasn’t done so in the most articulate manner. The OP I was responding to basing his opinion on Corbyn on recent polls showing a labour behind the Tories. My point, though badly made, was that polls don’t always give an accurate picture (see the Cons 25pt lead over Lab pre 2017 snap election) and that to underestimate Corbyn would be a mistake, as May found out to her peril.

Thunder Bolt · Oct 9, 2019

Goliath said:
Yes of course Remoaners should grow up and accept democracy.
Farage is just one person.
What's more important is how would a second vote help??It wouldn't.If leave won then Remoaners would continue to moan.If Remoaners won then Leave would rightly ask for a 3rd vote and then this would all drag on for years and years.Perfect.

Where's David when we need him?

Goliath · Oct 9, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Where's David when we need him?

Or you could try explaining how a second vote would help?

Grombleton · Oct 9, 2019

Goliath said:
Yes of course Remoaners should grow up and accept democracy.
Farage is just one person.
What's more important is how would a second vote help??It wouldn't.If leave won then Remoaners would continue to moan.If Remoaners won then Leave would rightly ask for a 3rd vote and then this would all drag on for years and years.Perfect.

- Allowing a new group of people, whom weren't previously eligible to vote the opportunity to shape their future.
- Allowing people to make a choice after years of hearing how the may/have been mislead by the lies from both sides in the build-up to the 2016 vote
- To give them a chance to help shape, if we are to leave, what type of exit the people actually want. Not what people 'think' based on their own bias or ideology, but what they ballot boxes show.

Is that enough reasons? Also, telling the Remain side to 'grow up' just makes you sound like a dick, so i'd advise against that.

Baldseagull · Oct 9, 2019

Motogull said:
'Banging on = bullshit and propaganda.

Benn's Law mandates the delivery of a letter making a request, not what the response to that must be because it cannot bind the recipient.

The document/letter read to the Scottish court amounted to an undertaking to comply, but equally significantly, not to frustrate so Alexander Boris de Piffle bungle**** Johnson cannot theoretically sabotage the process. Would you put that past him though? No, me neither. I can see him barely containing his chuckles the morning after while giving a 'I told you so, so what, it is now done' speech.

That would leave Parliament with only the 1 option to avoid no deal, to revoke A50, and I believe they would do that. I think Cummings reckons they would too, which would allow a Johnson led Tory party to claim they were going to get it done, but Labour and Liberals stopped them. Kicking out the rebels voting to block no deal was part of this strategy I think. I don't think Boris wants no deal, but he is using the weakness of his Government as an advantage, he can say he will do it, and count on the opposition to defeat him. It might also produce some movement from the EU, but I doubt it.
The question is what would he do in the event of winning an election on the back of being hard Brexit, I think another referendum would be on the cards, as it would be for almost any other result except a Lib Dem majority

Baldseagull · Oct 9, 2019

Simster said:
Here are the odds of certain outcomes according to Betfair:

UK to leave before 1st Nov: 4.7 (just over 7/2)
No deal Brexit in 2019: 5.1 (just over 4/1)
Article 50 to be revoked: 3.5 (5/2)

Brexit Date:
Before Jan 20: 3.35 (just over 9/4)
Jan-Jun: 2.62 (13/8)

Why oh why couldn't we just leave but stay in a EFTA-like arrangement, in line with the vote and probably public opinion? If anyone gave a tuppenny f*ck about national unity, that is what they would ALL be advocating.

JCFG would tell you that is a remainers Brexit, not a real Brexit, the hard brexiters are claiming they have the mandate for No Deal, and are not letting go.

Mellotron · Oct 9, 2019

portslade seagull said:
There were far more from remain which had far more resource to make them up. It worked against them

Far more resource?! Aaron Banks is bankrolled by ****ing RUSSIA.

Goliath · Oct 9, 2019

Grombleton said:
- Allowing a new group of people, whom weren't previously eligible to vote the opportunity to shape their future.
- Allowing people to make a choice after years of hearing how the may/have been mislead by the lies from both sides in the build-up to the 2016 vote
- To give them a chance to help shape, if we are to leave, what type of exit the people actually want. Not what people 'think' based on their own bias or ideology, but what they ballot boxes show.

Is that enough reasons? Also, telling the Remain side to 'grow up' just makes you sound like a dick, so i'd advise against that.

There's a new group every year so should we vote every year?
What type of exit?As if people are not confused enough as it is.
Let's assume Leave win again then of course we will have all this nonesense again of trying to stop us leave.Right?
Or if Remoaners won then of course Leave would demand a second vote.It would never end.

Goliath · Oct 9, 2019

Grombleton said:
- Allowing a new group of people, whom weren't previously eligible to vote the opportunity to shape their future.
- Allowing people to make a choice after years of hearing how the may/have been mislead by the lies from both sides in the build-up to the 2016 vote
- To give them a chance to help shape, if we are to leave, what type of exit the people actually want. Not what people 'think' based on their own bias or ideology, but what they ballot boxes show.

Is that enough reasons? Also, telling the Remain side to 'grow up' just makes you sound like a dick, so i'd advise against that.

Dick is fine.I've been called much worse as most leavers have.

Lever · Oct 9, 2019

Goliath said:
Dick is fine.I've been called much worse as most leavers have.

I don't believe you are a dick, just that you could do with a bit more practice at thinking things through...... and of course refraining from using a tired, worn out expression like 'remoaners' which further undermines the points you make.

Kinky Gerbil · Oct 9, 2019

Baldseagull said:
That would leave Parliament with only the 1 option to avoid no deal, to revoke A50, and I believe they would do that. I think Cummings reckons they would too, which would allow a Johnson led Tory party to claim they were going to get it done, but Labour and Liberals stopped them. Kicking out the rebels voting to block no deal was part of this strategy I think. I don't think Boris wants no deal, but he is using the weakness of his Government as an advantage, he can say he will do it, and count on the opposition to defeat him. It might also produce some movement from the EU, but I doubt it.
The question is what would he do in the event of winning an election on the back of being hard Brexit, I think another referendum would be on the cards, as it would be for almost any other result except a Lib Dem majority

Boris will do anything he thinks that will keep him in power.

It makes me laugh to think people believe he is willing to break the law for Brexit, he doesn't care enough about Brexit to potentially go to jail over it - it was a means to get to power.

portlock seagull · Oct 9, 2019

DavidinSouthampton said:
I like your analogy and agree. I just couldn't help thinking that, if from June 2016 things had been done differently after the vote, it could have been very different. Johnson is screwing it up right royally as far as I am concerned, but to be fair he was left an impossible situation to sort out!

And it goes against the grain to be fair to our PM!

Yes, if you’ll indulge me, I quite liked my analogy too! Not sure where it came from but hey, not bad for a Wednesday morning!! Anyway, more seriously, I despise Boris Johnson and have done since way back. He’s dangerous, a wannabe Poundland Churchill and a Trump apologist. I was pro Brexit and firmly believe we should be given a 2nd referendum in which I’d now vote remain without question knowing what we do now about e.g. backstop.

nwgull · Oct 9, 2019

Goliath said:
There's a new group every year so should we vote every year?
What type of exit?As if people are not confused enough as it is.
Let's assume Leave win again then of course we will have all this nonesense again of trying to stop us leave.Right?
Or if Remoaners won then of course Leave would demand a second vote.It would never end.

Like voting for the government every 5 years?

Is it PotG? · Oct 9, 2019

nwgull said:
Like voting for the government every 5 years?

But the result of the previous vote would have been implemented, prior to the new one taking place and similarly being implemented.

A1X · Oct 9, 2019

Is it PotG? said:
But the result of the previous vote would have been implemented, prior to the new one taking place and similarly being implemented.

Ah yes, who can forget when we all voted for that Tory / Lib Dem joint ticket back in 2010.

Klaas · Oct 9, 2019

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I'm feeling 'Backstop'

Goliath · Oct 9, 2019

Lever said:
I don't believe you are a dick, just that you could do with a bit more practice at thinking things through...... and of course refraining from using a tired, worn out expression like 'remoaners' which further undermines the points you make.

Leave it.Dick is fine.I'm good with it.Its when you call me racist and nazi I get a little upset.

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