I think the thing with the polls it they will probably look very different after the 31st, or if Johnson is removed as PM.
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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
I think the thing with the polls it they will probably look very different after the 31st, or if Johnson is removed as PM.
nwgull
Well-known member
My answer was in response to the contributions to membership. I compared the trade figures to demonstrate that the loss of net 8 billion is fairly insignificant in relation to the overall turnover of EU countries.
nwgull
Well-known member
It’s the tariffs imposed on exported goods that will ruin British business. Tariff free imports to U.K. makes no deal even more palatable to the EU.
midnight_rendezvous
Well-known member
Erm... in the last GE polls had the Tories winning by a landslide yet Corbyn generated the biggest influx of Labour support since WW2 and wiped out the Tory Majority, so you’ll forgive me if I’m sceptical.
Baldseagull
Well-known member
No, it means that we stay in the EU and press for reforms where needed, and educate the public about the EU, that should ensure the 48% are no longer shitting themselves about being conscripted into an EU Army, being forced to join the Euro, or having all their neighbours become Turkish.
No they didn't:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017
One even had Labour winning.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
I don’t need to argue the point with you, if you choose to believe I am an outright liar, your prerogative.
I spend time in France and Spain and have seen the difference that EU money has made, I haven’t seen the same in the UK. I have no idea why commenting on this makes you keep doubting my being a remainer. I have not heard a single current politician who has made me think “yep this is the man or woman who can sort out this cluster****”. Hence I think we should put the patient out of it’s misery rather than have this dominate politics for the foreseeable future. Get out, have an election and let’s see where we go.
The above may be naive in the extreme, stupid even but it’s how I feel
This is the link. Put in any postcode to see what EU money has financed in what area.
https://www.myeu.uk
I typed in Brighton rather than a postcode. Each blue shape gives the exact amount and detail of EU money and what it has financed.
https://www.myeu.uk/search?Brighton, UK
nwgull
Well-known member
You’re wrong:
Polls in the month prior to EU ref predicted a mixture of leave and remain.
Polls for US predicted Clinton would get more votes that Trump, which she did - 4.5% more.
Polls showed a landslide when May called the election; that’s why she called it. However, in the weeks up to voting day they correctly showed the lead being eroded. The pre election polls predicted a slim majority at best.
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,582
I like your analogy and agree. I just couldn't help thinking that, if from June 2016 things had been done differently after the vote, it could have been very different. Johnson is screwing it up right royally as far as I am concerned, but to be fair he was left an impossible situation to sort out!
And it goes against the grain to be fair to our PM!
midnight_rendezvous
Well-known member
Yes they did. Which is why May called the snap election in the first place. Classic example of opinion polls attempting to shape public opinion rather than reflecting it.
pb21
Well-known member
- Apr 23, 2010
- 6,294
Its worth noting that the betting market currently has 'no overall majority' as favourite.
Also, IMO, there are more shy Labour voters than there are shy Tory voters these days.
midnight_rendezvous
Well-known member
So in other words, polls fluctuate and don’t always correctly represent public opinion. That is precisely the point, perhaps executed poorly on my part, I’m trying to make.
maltaseagull
Well-known member
So, basically you agree. The Tories were not prepared to compromise on customs union or with the rest of the house. QED.
pb21
Well-known member
- Apr 23, 2010
- 6,294
Edit: Of course 2017 had Nick Timothy and 2019/2020 will have Cummings whipping up a frenzy...
Yes of course Remoaners should grow up and accept democracy.
Farage is just one person.
What's more important is how would a second vote help??It wouldn't.If leave won then Remoaners would continue to moan.If Remoaners won then Leave would rightly ask for a 3rd vote and then this would all drag on for years and years.Perfect.
Baldseagull
Well-known member
With the unofficial and unnamed briefings coming from Downing Street, it seems to me the idea is to make the EU believe that there is a cunning plan to exploit a loophole in UK law to leave without a deal, it is false, but they have to try and make it seem real, as the belief is the EU will cave in if they think the alternative is no deal. It isn't, even if there were a way to make it happen, it would not last, Parliament would kick Johnson out and seek to get Mays Withdrawal arrangements applied PDQ. It's Mays deal or something very similar, or remain.
Baldseagull
Well-known member
I can agree with most of that except the equivalence of both remaining and leaving in terms of not being the status quo. It was in law that any treaty changes required a referendum on the changes in the UK, and that we were not obliged to move towards any further integration. There is no preserving the exact status quo in anything, but we had a pretty good handle on how that might change and if we wanted it to by staying in.
I'm not saying I have to make this point a lot to them but I have the link bookmarked.
Regardless of if we do get Brexit,none of this will be over.Remoaners will look for a way to get us back in and the EU will make it easy.If Labour win a future election on the back of taking us back in then thats an obvious route but whatever happens I dont believe for one minute when we leave,if we leave that will be the end.