[Politics] Brexit

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

There does seem to be a trend among remainders to view leavers as uneducated regarding Brexit, who are easily misled but those who wish to distort truth to further their agenda - but as far as I can tell it extends to both sides.

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

spring hall convert said:
The last referendum built a chap into such a state of frenzy that he thought it was the right thing to do to murder Jo Cox.

Which is part of why I'm objected to another one. The atmosphere in this country for those weeks was the worst I've ever known it.

To be fair I don't think that bloke was a normal rational person, he had an history of mental health problems.
But I think another vote would cause many people to lose it. I like to think I'm rational but have started to despise the constant whining from both sides but especially the remainers. I truly believe there will be unrest rarely seen before and I'm not sure the police could handle it. I think the government know this as well.

Icy Gull · Jul 30, 2018

Great thread idea, I reckon “remain” would win overwhelmingly personally.

spring hall convert · Jul 30, 2018

I really don't know what makes the remainers so confident about winning a second referendum. Once the Sun, Mail & Express have started up all the Turkey joining the EU Islamophobia bollocks that they did last time those numbers will look a lot different.

What were the polls saying 2 months before the last vote?

Baker lite · Jul 30, 2018

Icy Gull said:
Great thread idea, I reckon “remain” would win overwhelmingly personally.

Didn’t last time so it doesn’t really matter now.
We’re on our way.

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

spring hall convert said:
I really don't know what makes the remainers so confident about winning a second referendum. Once the Sun, Mail & Express have started up all the Turkey joining the EU Islamophobia bollocks that they did last time those numbers will look a lot different.

What were the polls saying 2 months before the last vote?

There's also fewer scare tactics for remainers to use as well, such as 'emergency budget' and 'immediate recession'. On the other hand, no buses next time either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...dom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

hans kraay fan club · Jul 30, 2018

Swillis said:
To be fair I don't think that bloke was a normal rational person, he had an history of mental health problems.
But I think another vote would cause many people to lose it. I like to think I'm rational but have started to despise the constant whining from both sides but especially the remainers. I truly believe there will be unrest rarely seen before and I'm not sure the police could handle it. I think the government know this as well.

So, in summary, you think that people should suck it up, and throw their support behind what they feel is an inherently terrible idea, in case some other people who wanted the terrible idea, get punchy if they don't get their way?

What about when the angry mob find out there are no unicorns, no free money for the NHS, and 10% of them get laid off? Will that also justify them causing disorder?

Blue3 · Jul 30, 2018

And I fear the result of this NSC poll is the very reason a second referndum will not take place unless it was AV with only three questions and no don't know option

Ernest · Jul 30, 2018

If the facts change then people are allowed to change their minds which is why referendums are a bad thing and only cowardly politicians go for them

nwgull · Jul 30, 2018

seagulls4ever said:
Have you just plucked those figures out of thin air? I think deaths per year is closer to around 600k. Not sure about ages of the deaths. One estimate for leave 65+ was 64% (not sure it would go up to 75% for 75+). Turnout is key as you said, but you it is not part of your calculations (18-24 turnout was later estimated to be 64%). Don't know figures for 3m, but birth rate (does not factor all) for those coming in since last time is about 1.4m (but again, don't know turnout of this pop).

In short, I don't know the exact figures myself, but I don't trust yours!

You’re right, I doubled the deaths twice by accident when accounting for 2 years. I couldn’t find the age stat beyond 65, but I from memory it increases towards 80% for people in their 80s.

If turnout was indeed that high for the 18-24 group and was repeated in a similar vote, then the millions of new voters since 2016 would make a significant impact.

Level of education was the other significant factor in whether you’re more likely to have voted leave/remain, but that’s not going to have changed much in 2 years.

Thunder Bolt · Jul 30, 2018

Ernest said:
If the facts change then people are allowed to change their minds which is why referendums are a bad thing and only cowardly politicians go for them

I agree. Cameron realised when he lost, what a major muck up it was, and ran away.

Now the Tories are desperate to remain in power, and Labour are desperate to get into power, so in the meantime, us common folk, are left completely in the lurch.
The rich won't suffer, but we will.

Simster · Jul 30, 2018

Ernest said:
If the facts change then people are allowed to change their minds which is why referendums are a bad thing and only cowardly politicians go for them

Yep. The Conservatives deserve to be slaughtered in the next election for what they've done to this country. Absolutely shameful.

nwgull · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
So, in summary, you think that people should suck it up, and throw their support behind what they feel is an inherently terrible idea, in case some other people who wanted the terrible idea, get punchy if they don't get their way?

What about when the angry mob find out there are no unicorns, no free money for the NHS, and 10% of them get laid off? Will that also justify them causing disorder?

They don’t care coz they ‘won’ and get their blue passports.

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
So, in summary, you think that people should suck it up, and throw their support behind what they feel is an inherently terrible idea, in case some other people who wanted the terrible idea, get punchy if they don't get their way?

What about when the angry mob find out there are no unicorns, no free money for the NHS, and 10% of them get laid off? Will that also justify them causing disorder?

This angry mob. They are they same people who have been called naive, racist, stupid and many more things. Now these people are being told that maybe their vote meant nothing. I would say they have a right to be angry. As for the public disorder, it's never a good thing but if you push people to far it's inevitable.

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

nwgull said:
If turnout was indeed that high for the 18-24 group and was repeated in a similar vote, then the millions of new voters since 2016 would make a significant impact. .

I also questioned your 'millions of new voters' (3m) statement as well. My basic calculation gives me around 1.4m, 64% (high end estimate) of which is 900k (although that would obviously increase by the time another referendum came around). If turnout was that high, then of course there's less scope to increase turnout in that population as well (an argument which a lot of people make, although I could see turnout being much higher anyway).

Pavilionaire · Jul 30, 2018

The argument that there shouldn't be another Referendum because we've already had one doesn't make sense when the Leave campaign has been revealed to be a pack of lies and everyone knows it.

There will be no £350 million a week for the NHS, we will not be getting a good deal from the EU, they really don't need us more than we need them, Turkey won't be joining the EU, while leaked plans for No Deal preparations for stockpiling food, medicine and fuel show there might have been a grain of truth in Project Fear.

That isn't to say that Leaving the EU is right or wrong, but it would be an acknowledgement that a Leave campaign heavy on lies and light on a road map was - at best - very misleading. Besides, the Leavers assert that many floating voters were influenced to vote Remain because of 'Project Fear', so if voters believe Project Fear IS bollocks there should be plenty of new votes going the way of Leave.

If the Tories crash out of the EU with no Second Referendum then their party will never be the same again and they may be looking at a very long time in the political wilderness.

GT49er · Jul 30, 2018

Thunder Bolt said:
The rich won't suffer, but we will.

And ain't that just the truth! - whether we're in the EU or out of it!

Although it is interesting to reflect that the wealth gap between the rich and the poor was much less in the 1970s than it is now - in fact I understand that somewhere in the 70s the gap got to the smallest it's ever been. Since we joined the EU, however, the gap has stopped progressively getting smaller and has grown consistently for 40 years.

spring hall convert · Jul 30, 2018

Pavilionaire said:
If the Tories crash out of the EU with no Second Referendum then their party will never be the same again and they may be looking at a very long time in the political wilderness.

Haha. I wish. They'll find someone else to blame it on.

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

mejonaNO12 aka riskit said:
EU tribalism is so fun to watch.

Pathetic

But fun.

Let me be clear, there is a massive difference between reasoned debate and the tribalism which I refer to.

Not much reasoned debate from either side before the referendum, and not much now.

Icy Gull · Jul 30, 2018

Baker lite said:
Didn’t last time so it doesn’t really matter now.
We’re on our way.

I will go with whatever is decided, I voted remain but accepted the result. It’s the most painful “On Our Way” though and I still maintain that May has been hit with the shittiest stick of any British PM other than maybe Winston Churchill. It irritates the **** out of me that the politicians that were so keen on getting us out and had the most influence in getting people to vote Leave have had no influential and constructive part in actually taking us out

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[Politics] Brexit

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