JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
Every treaty signed is another small or bigger step along the road.. but you know this.
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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
Every treaty signed is another small or bigger step along the road.. but you know this.
Baldseagull
Well-known member
It is, but it is now in UK law that a referendum would be held to decide if we would sign up to any new treaty or treaty amendment, it is also the case that our current status allows us to go no further without risk of being excluded from anything we currently enjoy the benefits of. This will probably not be the case if we reapply for membership.
With the result so close, and the younger generations being more pro EU, rejoining has to be a likely event, if we leave now.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
Looks like the swivel eyed head bangers are going to go into meltdown today
Aye. Stephen Bush, always good at a simple analysis, has it thus....
Are the Brexit talks heading for a serious crisis? In Whitehall, ministers are nervously waiting to see what the European Union's proposed next steps are. Driving much of the anxiety is the Irish border.
The word of the moment around Westminster as far as the UK, the EU and what was agreed at the end of the first phase of talks in December is "fudge". But the truth is that what was agreed was not a fudge at all. The British government agreed that it would guarantee no return to physical infrastructure (or a "hard border" in other words) on the island of Ireland. There was an agreement that if any of the more absurd ideas floated by the shallower end of the Brexit elite - Zeppelins, blockchain, drones - are shown to work, they can be used in lieu of regulatory and customs alignment. But as that was always a fiction, the truth of what Theresa May agreed at the end of phase one was a sharply limited version of Brexit for the United Kingdom, as the internal politics of her own government prohibit any new barriers in the Irish Sea.
But now those guarantees are set to be written into law, with the EU27 expected to lay them out exactly later today, and the "fudge" (or rather, the perfectly clear position that some Leavers are pretending is fudge) will be over.
The simple trade-off is this: you can't have significant customs and regulatory divergence and maintain the border between the United Kingdom and Ireland as it is. You can create a bespoke arrangement for Northern Ireland with a new set of barriers in the Irish Sea, you can have regulatory and customs alignment for the whole of the United Kingdom, or you have a hard border. That's it.
Some pro-Leave politicians have realised this trade-off which is one reason why Boris Johnson made the argument for a harder border than the current one in a private latter to Theresa May (Sky's Faisal Islam has got hold of a copy) at the end of the month.
What the Foreign Secretary recognises is that you cannot have "the benefits of Brexit" (parking for a moment whether you believe those benefits are illusory) and maintain the United Kingdom's current policy position towards Northern Ireland. Something has to give. It may be the British government's Brexit objectives, it may be the EU27's willingness to guarantee an open border come what may, or it could be any prospect of a deal at all.
Are the Brexit talks heading for a serious crisis? In Whitehall, ministers are nervously waiting to see what the European Union's proposed next steps are. Driving much of the anxiety is the Irish border.
The word of the moment around Westminster as far as the UK, the EU and what was agreed at the end of the first phase of talks in December is "fudge". But the truth is that what was agreed was not a fudge at all. The British government agreed that it would guarantee no return to physical infrastructure (or a "hard border" in other words) on the island of Ireland. There was an agreement that if any of the more absurd ideas floated by the shallower end of the Brexit elite - Zeppelins, blockchain, drones - are shown to work, they can be used in lieu of regulatory and customs alignment. But as that was always a fiction, the truth of what Theresa May agreed at the end of phase one was a sharply limited version of Brexit for the United Kingdom, as the internal politics of her own government prohibit any new barriers in the Irish Sea.
But now those guarantees are set to be written into law, with the EU27 expected to lay them out exactly later today, and the "fudge" (or rather, the perfectly clear position that some Leavers are pretending is fudge) will be over.
The simple trade-off is this: you can't have significant customs and regulatory divergence and maintain the border between the United Kingdom and Ireland as it is. You can create a bespoke arrangement for Northern Ireland with a new set of barriers in the Irish Sea, you can have regulatory and customs alignment for the whole of the United Kingdom, or you have a hard border. That's it.
Some pro-Leave politicians have realised this trade-off which is one reason why Boris Johnson made the argument for a harder border than the current one in a private latter to Theresa May (Sky's Faisal Islam has got hold of a copy) at the end of the month.
What the Foreign Secretary recognises is that you cannot have "the benefits of Brexit" (parking for a moment whether you believe those benefits are illusory) and maintain the United Kingdom's current policy position towards Northern Ireland. Something has to give. It may be the British government's Brexit objectives, it may be the EU27's willingness to guarantee an open border come what may, or it could be any prospect of a deal at all.
nicko31
Well-known member
Excellent post
The Tories have been kidding themselves since December, many just can't face reality and they will have to face it very soon. I also think most of Joe Public haven't a clue what is actually going on with Brexit, many are just bored of it and its hard to get the true facts from a lot of the press. Much of what is written is emotionally driven hogwash
Something inside me says May knows there is no solution but has to show 100% commitment to Brexit for the sake of party unity.
I may eat my words later, but I think remaining in the CU is the only way. Either that or we have a GE or 2nd EU Ref to try and settle it, though the later has its dangers. We will see
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
Forgive me for being a tad cynical about that particular cast iron guarantee. Firstly it doesn't necessarily apply to every new treaty or amendment. Second, the government decides if any new treaty/amendment breaches the conditions needed to trigger a referendum. Third, we know the powers that be are quite good at circumventing referendum results/constructing treaties that manage to avoid democratic public scrutiny (see Lisbon Treaty). Finally, it can be removed at any time. Leaving the EU was, is the only way to guarantee an end to the UK participating in ever closer union.
As you have already pointed out rejoining at some point in the future = no rebates, no exemptions, and even less of a say plus of course dumping the pound for the Euro entry criteria. The young will mature and grow wiser. Likely .... mmmmmm.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
Party unity and clinging onto power more important to the Tories than what is best for the country
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
I see Labours cake and eat it, fantasy solution hasn't gone down well in their working-class heartlands.
“If this is what he’s trying to do, it’s opportunistic rather than principled. He may be principled in many ways, but he’s trying to take government by dividing the Tory party and splitting their vote. It’s fairly cynical.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-plan-hasnt-12093689
Spot on. Putting cynical party advantage before a principled position or the national interest.
“If this is what he’s trying to do, it’s opportunistic rather than principled. He may be principled in many ways, but he’s trying to take government by dividing the Tory party and splitting their vote. It’s fairly cynical.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-plan-hasnt-12093689
Spot on. Putting cynical party advantage before a principled position or the national interest.
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
At least you're now speaking sense, glad to see you have seen what the Tories are doing
nicko31
Well-known member
Of course the Tories wouldn't dream of such a thing
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
Both parties are guilty of this to some degree as I'm sure you would agree .. my fellow Brexiteer.
Garry Nelson's teacher
Well-known member
As ever: the voice of reason!
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
And that's the reason Cameron called the referendum in the first place. Great Britain seems to be regarded as a facilitating department of Central Office.
European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/bre...nts-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/bre...nts-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en
ManOfSussex
We wunt be druv
The EU27's draft legal text has been published - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement.pdf
119 pages worth, but I'm sure whatever's in there will be an outrage to the swivel eyed, red trouser, wax jacket wearing, freakoids among us.
119 pages worth, but I'm sure whatever's in there will be an outrage to the swivel eyed, red trouser, wax jacket wearing, freakoids among us.
ManOfSussex
We wunt be druv
Corbyn's favourite attack dog, Barry Gardiner, currently being ripped a new one over the Labour 'a customs union' nonsense by Andrew Neil on The Daily Politics. 
ManOfSussex
We wunt be druv
Corbyn's favourite attack dog, Barry Gardner, currently being ripped a new one over the Labour 'a customs union' nonsense by Andrew Neil on The Daily Politics.
I doubt you'd know how to spell Barry Gardiner though.
mikeyjh
Well-known member
Cloud cuckoo land - Who was the last one to say a deal would be 'the easiest ever'??