[Politics] Brexit

Garry Nelson's teacher said:

'Same old story' indeed; and as for 'willfully ignoring', well I couldn't have expressed it better myself.

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JC Footy Genius said:

Out of interest how many times does the B of E or the numerous other organisations have to get predictions/forecasts horrendously wrong before you have some doubts about their assessments?

Perhaps we can just agree that uncertainty, as we transition out of the EU back to independent nation-state status, has some economic effect in the short term but it's silly to put specific numbers on this?

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JC Footy Genius said:

Out of interest how many times does the B of E or the numerous other organisations have to get predictions/forecasts horrendously wrong before you have some doubts about their assessments?

Perhaps we can just agree that uncertainty, as we transition out of the EU back to independent nation-state status, has some economic effect in the short term but it's silly to put specific numbers on this?

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Herr Tubthumper said:

Maybe some, who have to work and are not pensioners for starters, are not willing to take this risk?

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Garry Nelson's teacher said:

45.464% of the times................................

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JC Footy Genius said:

From this thread and wider discourse, I would agree that some maybe even most remain voters put economic considerations/guesstimates above all other issues (sovereignty/self-determination, immigration). Safety first is understandable and the theoretical economic impact was the main issue that gave me pause for thought before casting my vote. But as you and others have admitted you are all for a European Superstate which is clearly the end destination for the EU project. In addition, the road to ever closer union has created the biggest economic and social cohesive threat to European stability in my view so this particular worker in his 40's voted to leave.

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Herr Tubthumper said:

Interesting. If you look at some of the places with high leave numbers they also have high unemployment. I wonder if they did put economic reasons first? But not that the economy will flourish, more the economy will tank and reduce the risk of them having to actually find a job?

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Two Professors said:

This has really been done to death.WE CANNOT SIGN TRADE DEALS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES UNTIL WE LEAVE THE EU.(just in case you are internet deaf).
Here is a nice bit of optimism for you-the motor industry is not dead,despite 'expert' predictions.

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Garry Nelson's teacher said:

Thanks for rising to the challenge . I think the point isthat maybe we might need to look behind or beyond the data if we think it is dreadfully flawed (I would personally use the adjective 'imperfect'; not conclusive but highly suggestive.) So the big picture issue could be framed thus: what are your grounds for thinking that the UK economy will perform better outside of the EU than it would do within the EU? (With the supplementary question - and can you convincingly argue that these grounds are sufficiently robust given the projections of trade bodies, academic trade experts, former EU trade negotiators and ex-senior civil servants?

In the meantime, while you pick up you pen(s) to tackle this I shall offer in return some positives on leaving the EU. I do this in the vain hope that one or two Brexiteers might be similarly moved to
acknowledge that their case is not cast-iron:

1. I think it might help our fishing industry. (I actually typed 'fisting industry' which might have provoked some excitement in parts of Brighton and would for some be good enough grounds for leaving)

2. It gives us a chance to re-model our agricultural policy for the better

3. It frees us from some of the rulings of the ECJ which arguably (at least potentially) could be against our national interests

4. It saves us a few quid by not having to stage elections to the European parliament

5. It might in the long term make us less exposed to a collapse in the EU economic model

6. I'm not entirely comfortable with the uncontrolled movement of EU labour especially as it impacts in some parts of the UK

7. We do hand over a fair (or arguably unfair) amount of dosh

8. The EU does waste a proportion of the above

9. I'm not wholly comfortable with some of the current governments of EU states (eg the current Polish one); a generic drift to the right would bother me greatly

10. Brussels is a bubble and somewhat self-serving.

You see? It can be done. We don't have to sit in our respective trenches trading insults. Actually, I've even now convinced myself that I should have voted Leave...........

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vegster said:

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

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vegster said:

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

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vegster said:

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

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jaghebby said:

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44229606

The much heralded savings on leaving the EU may not materialize after all!

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JC Footy Genius said:

From this thread and wider discourse, I would agree that some maybe even most remain voters put economic considerations/guesstimates above all other issues (sovereignty/self-determination, immigration). Safety first is understandable and the theoretical economic impact was the main issue that gave me pause for thought before casting my vote. But as you and others have admitted you are all for a European Superstate which is clearly the end destination for the EU project. In addition, the road to ever closer union has created the biggest economic and social cohesive threat to European stability in my view so this particular worker in his 40's voted to leave.

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astralavi said:

Just curious if you would be happy overall with soft brexit i.e stay in single currency and customs union?

As a remainer I would

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JC Footy Genius said:

....................

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astralavi said:

a no then?

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astralavi said:

Just curious if you would be happy/satisfied with a soft brexit i.e stay in single currency and customs union?

As a remainer, I would

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