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[Politics] Brexit

If there was a second Brexit referendum how would you vote?

  • Total voters
    1,081


B

BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
Baldseagull said:
I think if you compare us with our nearest economic similar in the EU, France, you can see economic damage in the form of stunted growth.
Click to expand...

So your favoured indicator today is growth between France and the UK, seemingly this offers a view of a damaged UK economy just comparing two economies with one set of economic indicators seems a bit naff and of course one showing higher growth than the other doesn't necessarily mean that the 'other' one is damaged, but perhaps it's worth a look.

Since the referendum:

UK 2016 France 2016

Q2 0.5% Q2 -0.1%
Q3 0.5% Q3 0.1%
Q4 0.7% Q4 0.5%

UK 2017 France 2017

Q1 0.3% Q1 0.6%
Q2 0.3% Q2 0.6%
Q3 0.4% Q3 0.6%
Q4 0.5% Q4 0.5%

It doesn't immediately suggest a damaged UK economy to me.
 
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B

BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
Lincoln Imp said:
True. And we should also bear in mind that the EU won't be standing still for the next few decades - it will be brokering deals with other countries round the world too.
Click to expand...

That's the point its weighed down with 27 member state vested interests for them to efficiently broker these deals, that leaked paper showed the UK gaining global trade outside as compared if it was still inside of it.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,303
Lincoln Imp said:
True. And we should also bear in mind that the EU won't be standing still for the next few decades - it will be brokering deals with other countries round the world too.
Click to expand...

you really think the EU will open up its market and reduce tariffs and barriers to trade, after decades of protectionism? and if they're opening up trade, they'll be eager to trade with those on their doorstep as much as further afield. at least be logical about this.
 


B

BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
Baldseagull said:
I wasn't making a party based criticism, though our system, where consensus is rarely sought and seems to be a dirty word, is part of the problem. The best solution is not one or the other, but collaboration between UK government agencies and the EU. All UK governments have been poor in making the most of the opportunities, outside of Financial Services. It is UK governments that have let down the regions.
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I have no problem if the UK wish to analyse or copy certain models from anywhere, but why fix yourself exclusively with the EU who then divvys out our dosh on our behalf.
 
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Baldseagull

Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,946
Crawley
beorhthelm said:
because it restricts the ability to expand into other, higher growing markets? lets be rational for a minute, accept that there may be a cost to the trade with the rest of EU, can you not at least see that the potential upside is there in trade with rest of world? if you've saturated trade in one market where there's little growth, doesnt it make sense to look elsewhere for new markets where there is higher growth? if it wasnt for the protectionism and narrow insular views on the continent they'd be doing the same, open up to free trade.
Click to expand...

I grew the money in my pocket 100% this morning when I put another fiver in my wallet to keep the other one company. I only grew my bank account by 2% though when I deposited a £40 cheque. If I had the choice of access to only one over the other, I would keep the access to my bank account though.

You make an argument for staying in. We are inside a trading bloc ,that to those nations outside of it, tends to be protectionist, just like the US. We can expect to find barriers to trade from the EU, still have them from the US, but might be able to get a deal with China which is of course, no worry to any manufacturing business in the UK.
 


L

Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
beorhthelm said:
you really think the EU will open up its market and reduce tariffs and barriers to trade, after decades of protectionism? and if they're opening up trade, they'll be eager to trade with those on their doorstep as much as further afield. at least be logical about this.
Click to expand...

I was thinking of arrangements along the various lines of deals with Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chile, Egypt, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Iceland, Israel, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Norway, Palestinian Authority , Russia, San Marino, Serbia, South Korea, Switzerland, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, plus more recent ones going through such as Japan and Canada.
 


Baldseagull

Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,946
Crawley
BigGully said:
I have no problem if the UK wish to analyse or copy certain models from anywhere, but why fix yourself exclusively with the EU who then divvys out our dosh on our behalf.
Click to expand...

It isn't our money, Most Billionaires pay far more in to the system than they get out, does not make it their money, or make them the best placed at how to spend it for the wider population, or even in their own long term interest.
 




beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,303
Baldseagull said:
...We can expect to find barriers to trade from the EU, still have them from the US, but might be able to get a deal with China which is of course, no worry to any manufacturing business in the UK.
Click to expand...

the days of mass manufacturing are behind us, as many are so quick to tell us. we're not going to hold back the tide in the EU and neither are they, we must hold our own on high-quality and advance technology. i see the wider economics wont be accepted, clouded by politics and dogma. the future is not in our past, EU is going to face the same challenge, and added complications of holding together the southern and northern economies in one size fits none.
 


Baldseagull

Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,946
Crawley
BigGully said:
I have no problem if the UK wish to analyse or copy certain models from anywhere, but why fix yourself exclusively with the EU who then divvys out our dosh on our behalf.
Click to expand...

Apologies for replying twice to the same comment, but analysing and copying is not the same as collaboration.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,303
Lincoln Imp said:
I was thinking of arrangements along the various lines of deals with Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chile, Egypt, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Iceland, Israel, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Norway, Palestinian Authority , Russia, San Marino, Serbia, South Korea, Switzerland, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, plus more recent ones going through such as Japan and Canada.
Click to expand...

i look forward to joining that list.
 




Baldseagull

Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,946
Crawley
beorhthelm said:
the days of mass manufacturing are behind us, as many are so quick to tell us. we're not going to hold back the tide in the EU and neither are they, we must hold our own on high-quality and advance technology. i see the wider economics wont be accepted, clouded by politics and dogma. the future is not in our past, EU is going to face the same challenge, and added complications of holding together the southern and northern economies in one size fits none.
Click to expand...

If I am ignoring wider economics, it is by only responding to your current points. I have made points before about the strength of the EU as a negotiator compared to the strength of the UK alone, and the issue of one currency across varying economies, the US has this issue too, China will face it. The EU is actually taking action though, it is why UK, German and French contributions end up used in infrastructure projects in Poland and Spain, the aim to make all regions prosperous, and to have diversity in economies. I agree, we must be at the forefront of technology and be high quality in what we do, sharing of knowledge within the EU is beneficial to this aim, the links between Universities across the EU and the ability of EU citizens with bright ideas to come to Britain to start their enterprise, and utilise the talent and resources here that may not be present in their home country.
China is not just mass producing low quality items these days. The Japanese started out by copying European manufactured goods, and doing it cheaper, then made it better, made it smaller, made it more efficiently. Leica still make great cameras, but so do Nikon and Canon and they dominate the professional and consumer market. China are doing the same. UK universities are not short on Chinese students, they are on the same engineering and design degree courses as our kids, and they will be as good if not better as any industrialised nation in the world at producing high quality, innovative product, if they continue to keep their currency artificially low, we would have to impose tariff on product produced with subsidy, or other methods unfair to competetion, if we had a competing domestic industry. Europe will fall away somewhat, inevitably, as China and other Asian countries rise, the UK will fall further if we are alone.

In the end, greater distribution of wealth in the world has to be a good thing for us all, those of us in the richer parts of the world will find it uncomfortable at times, but by being within a larger union, we can manage it better, negotiate with those like China and the US, who subsidise industry, to give them better access if they are fairer in their practices, and more respectful of the environment.

The EU is not as good as it should be, it does make mistakes, is wasteful at times, particularly in the move to Strasbourg once a month, every month, but it is not useless and can be made to function better, but even as is, is far more beneficial to be in for the UK, than being out.
We should be in it, and driving it to be what it can be, our mistake has always been to ignore it until we found an issue with it, and then see it as a battle with the enemy.
 


Herr Tubthumper

Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,517
The Fatherland








P

portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,606
portslade
Baldseagull said:
It isn't our money, Most Billionaires pay far more in to the system than they get out, does not make it their money, or make them the best placed at how to spend it for the wider population, or even in their own long term interest.
Click to expand...

I think most billionaires spend most of their time trying to find ways to avoid paying tax. Hence they are mega rich. A bit like the coffee shops and search engines etc etc
 


pastafarian

pastafarian

Well-known member
Sep 4, 2011
11,902
Sussex
Lincoln Imp said:
I was expecting this. I've always been interested in how mass persuasion techniques can be applied in order to shift public reactions in a certain direction. The obvious example is what happened in Germany from 1918. That was malign. Another example was the UK from, say, 2015 on. That was in a different and obviously more benign league. But while the story was different, the chapter headings occasionally have things in common. One-question referendums, an inclination to cite foreigners, a distrust of experts, the snappy slogans of populism and even, in the past few days, the blaming of shadowy elites for warping the truth. Note that there are no criticisms of Brexit in that last sentence but, as I say, I expected you to pretend that I was comparing Boris's Britain to Hitler's Germany. So many of the extremely-cross wing of the Brexit movement seem to love donning the mantel of victimhood. ("We're all thick racists!") It's odd, given that they are staring victory in the face.

PS If you're interested in the subject, the best read I've come across lately is Geert Mak's 'In Europe', chapter 16.
Click to expand...

So in conclusion no similarity with the events surrounding brexit and Nazi Germany. Just as I originally thought then.

Incidently ,The best read I have had on the subject on how their beginnings as a workers socialist movement transformed into something very different and sinister and the people and events who were key to the madness was Albert Speers autobiography Inside the Third Reich , the whole craziness of it straight from the horses mouth, so to speak.
 






G

Garry Nelson's teacher

Well-known member
May 11, 2015
5,257
Bloody Worthing!
Baldseagull said:
If I am ignoring wider economics, it is by only responding to your current points. I have made points before about the strength of the EU as a negotiator compared to the strength of the UK alone, and the issue of one currency across varying economies, the US has this issue too, China will face it. The EU is actually taking action though, it is why UK, German and French contributions end up used in infrastructure projects in Poland and Spain, the aim to make all regions prosperous, and to have diversity in economies. I agree, we must be at the forefront of technology and be high quality in what we do, sharing of knowledge within the EU is beneficial to this aim, the links between Universities across the EU and the ability of EU citizens with bright ideas to come to Britain to start their enterprise, and utilise the talent and resources here that may not be present in their home country.
China is not just mass producing low quality items these days. The Japanese started out by copying European manufactured goods, and doing it cheaper, then made it better, made it smaller, made it more efficiently. Leica still make great cameras, but so do Nikon and Canon and they dominate the professional and consumer market. China are doing the same. UK universities are not short on Chinese students, they are on the same engineering and design degree courses as our kids, and they will be as good if not better as any industrialised nation in the world at producing high quality, innovative product, if they continue to keep their currency artificially low, we would have to impose tariff on product produced with subsidy, or other methods unfair to competetion, if we had a competing domestic industry. Europe will fall away somewhat, inevitably, as China and other Asian countries rise, the UK will fall further if we are alone.

In the end, greater distribution of wealth in the world has to be a good thing for us all, those of us in the richer parts of the world will find it uncomfortable at times, but by being within a larger union, we can manage it better, negotiate with those like China and the US, who subsidise industry, to give them better access if they are fairer in their practices, and more respectful of the environment.

The EU is not as good as it should be, it does make mistakes, is wasteful at times, particularly in the move to Strasbourg once a month, every month, but it is not useless and can be made to function better, but even as is, is far more beneficial to be in for the UK, than being out.
We should be in it, and driving it to be what it can be, our mistake has always been to ignore it until we found an issue with it, and then see it as a battle with the enemy.
Click to expand...

Really like the your final line. When I used to visit Brussels in the 1990s, the usual take on the British was one of benign perplexity; they couldn't really see our problem with the EU. Obviously this was post-Thatcher and Maastricht and the view tended to be 'why do you stay on the sidelines and not fully engage' - and often contrasted with Ireland who got their sleeves rolled up, jumped on every funding bandwagon, got their people in all the key positons and punched far above their weight.
I don't think we've ever as a nation 'got it'. I for one (and as a 'No' in 1975) never saw it ending quite this way but perhaps it was always destined to end in tears (of laughter for some on this thread, sadness for others).
 


WATFORD zero

WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
25,809
portslade seagull said:
I think most billionaires spend most of their time trying to find ways to avoid paying tax. Hence they are mega rich. A bit like the coffee shops and search engines etc etc
Click to expand...

The best way to go after multi-national tax evaders is DEFINITELY using a national government.

I wonder what they will think of to combat that :lolol:
 


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