[Politics] Brexit

Steve in Japan said:

Next time James O'Brien at LBC goes off on one of his "name one EU law you didn't like" ranting monologues, could somebody say pssssst Tampon Tax. Or indeed any VAT rate applied in this country.

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Funnily, this is an example of Britain achieving a reform within the EU to allow zero rated VAT on sanitary products, across all 28 member states. Tampons will have a zero VAT rate before we leave the EU, so not a good reason to leave the EU, and an example of Britain being able to persuade the other members that a change was neccesary, and getting that change implemented.

Baldseagull said:

Most previous attempts at improving the situation have been asking the EU for a special deal for Britain, quite rightly, they had come to the end of special dispensations for the UK. What we should have been doing and could be doing now, is pushing for changes that everyone can sign up to.

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The 'everyone can sign up to' being the problem. Fundamentally you know the EU is viewed very differently on the continent it's more about political integration/ever closer union. The trade element is of secondary concern. Our position of proritising trade and less EU more Nation State is never going to be a position everyone (especially Germany and France) will sign up to.

JC Footy Genius said:

The 'everyone can sign up to' being the problem. Fundamentally you know the EU is viewed very differently on the continent it's more about political integration/ever closer union. The trade element is of secondary concern. Our position of proritising trade and less EU more Nation State is never going to be a position everyone (especially Germany and France) will sign up to.

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I don't think that "our" position is as you describe, might be the Tory position. I think our position is that we would like the EU to work better than it does, waste less money and address the parts of existing treaties and policy that create difficulty and discontent in some states.
One of the reasons we have higher migration to the UK from Eastern Europe is that the EU gave a free hand to the Nation states as to how they wanted to limit immigration from the accession countries for the first 7 years of their membership, Tony Blair decided to impose no limits, the rest of the EU states limited numbers. Now they have full free movement across the EU, but the network that can help them is bigger and better established in the UK than anywhere else.
Perhaps if the EU had imposed limits on our behalf, we would not be about to leave it.

5ways said:

Breaking news: "Brexit still going to make us all poorer" - Bank of England

"Monetary policy cannot prevent the weaker real income growth likely to accompany the transition to new trading arrangements with the EU. But it can influence how this hit to incomes is distributed between job losses and price rises."

....


"One million people across this country work in financial services. The industry contributes 7% of output and pays taxes that cover almost two thirds of the cost of the NHS. At a time when the UK is running a 5% current account deficit, financial services runs a 1.5% trade surplus with Europe alone. The entire service sector runs a 5% surplus with the world and employs 85% of UK workers.

We could take these realities for granted. And it would be all too easy to give into protectionism. But as we learned in the 1930s, that road leads neither to equity nor prosperity. Raising barriers to trade disproportionately hurts the least well off through higher prices and fewer opportunities."

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The state of the nations credit card and Brexit are a toxic combination. Gonna be either more debt or more tax. I'd favour a tax rise on all leavers but it doesn't work like that, so we're all gonna suffer I'm afraid

JC Footy Genius said:

David Davis and EU rule out soft Brexit on day one of negotiations

David Davis and the EU slammed the door on any prospect of a “soft” Brexit as formal negotiations on leaving the EU finally got underway in Brussels.

The Brexit Secretary confirmed Britain would be leaving the customs union and the single market, in a move designed to scupper any parliamentary plots to water down the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from Europe.

His counterpart, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, also confirmed that Britain would leave the single market and the customs union.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/19/david-davis-eu-rule-soft-brexit-day-one-negotiations/

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How can you scupper plots when you have a majority of 2 (assuming the Tories form a government and enter a love in with the DUP).

We had a massive U-turn yesterday, the row of the summer didn't even make it till mid-summer. I expect more as reality bites

Baldseagull said:

Funnily, this is an example of Britain achieving a reform within the EU to allow zero rated VAT on sanitary products, across all 28 member states. Tampons will have a zero VAT rate before we leave the EU, so not a good reason to leave the EU, and an example of Britain being able to persuade the other members that a change was neccesary, and getting that change implemented.

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You may think that is what has happened, or indeed should have happened, but it's not the case. To my knowledge, the debate about the tampon tax has been going since 2000 at least - only 17 years and we haven't managed to "reform" anything. VAT at 5% is STILL being collected - and being given away to charity in some sort of elegant fudge because the Government couldn't follow through on their promise to zero-rate it.

Member Governments do NOT have the right to determine which products should be zero-rated for VAT. Hence my initial comment - name one thing the EU has ever done to you......well, the whole VAT regime is out of our control.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/28/eu-plan-cut-uk-vat-exemptions-pierre-moscovici

JC Footy Genius said:

Hard to reconcile the losing sides position in a binary choice. If the result had gone the other way how would the leave sides position been accomadated?.

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Well it certainly wouldn't have been accommodated by a victorious Remain side announcing that it was using its slight majority as a go-ahead to enter Schengen and join the Euro.

The Leave side Europhobes, meanwhile, tell us (May's January speech, since confirmed) that they intend to use their slight majority in exactly that sort of way - as a go-ahead for the sort of hard Brexit that most of British industry is pleading with them not to pursue.

Put simply, they are exploiting the referendum result to pursue their own ideology in a way that doesn't reflect the 48/52 outcome. It was the clique's concern that they might not get away with it that led to the attempt to bypass Parliament and, when that failed at the hands of the "Enemies of the People", to increase their majority in the House. That went a bit wonky too. Obviously though, people who share their ideology will be pleased with their tactics and would like everyone who hasn't signed up to clutter off.

(Sorry I didn't respond earlier: I was being harangued by an old friend who told me he voted Leave because too many houses are having to be built between Hurstpierpoint and Hassocks.)

Steve in Japan said:

You may think that is what has happened, or indeed should have happened, but it's not the case. To my knowledge, the debate about the tampon tax has been going since 2000 at least - only 17 years and we haven't managed to "reform" anything. VAT at 5% is STILL being collected - and being given away to charity in some sort of elegant fudge because the Government couldn't follow through on their promise to zero-rate it.

Member Governments do NOT have the right to determine which products should be zero-rated for VAT. Hence my initial comment - name one thing the EU has ever done to you......well, the whole VAT regime is out of our control.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/28/eu-plan-cut-uk-vat-exemptions-pierre-moscovici

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Yes currently 5% since 2000, when lobbying got UK government to apply the lowest EU rate allowed, it should be zero rated next year. The article you have linked to has little to do with this issue in the UK really, it concerns "grandfathered" zero rates which we have applied since membership of the EU(EEC), if we had decided not to charge VAT on Tampons when we joined the EU, we could have zero rate on tampons currently, as Ireland does.
The change I am referring to is in progress, and will take effect whilst we are still in the EU, and therefore is not something to raise as a reason to leave the EU.
Political will is required to get a change implemented, whichever political system you are working within, leaving the EU is unlikely to give you and I any change in what products have VAT applied, or the rate used, and depending on the terms of our agreement with the EU regarding trade, may be even more difficult to change.
Now we have the issue of Tampons out of the way, can I borrow a line from James O'Brian and ask, "Which VAT rate is it you are not happy with?"

bashlsdir said:

That bloke does my head in.

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And mine. But I force myself to listen occasionally, it's good for the soul. And nice when it stops.

bashlsdir said:

That bloke does my head in.

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Steve in Japan said:

And mine. But I force myself to listen occasionally, it's good for the soul. And nice when it stops.

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Well he's most welcome in Hastings anytime and a lot of people would buy the man a drink or two.

Baldseagull said:

Yes currently 5% since 2000, when lobbying got UK government to apply the lowest EU rate allowed, it should be zero rated next year. The article you have linked to has little to do with this issue in the UK really, it concerns "grandfathered" zero rates which we have applied since membership of the EU(EEC), if we had decided not to charge VAT on Tampons when we joined the EU, we could have zero rate on tampons currently, as Ireland does.
The change I am referring to is in progress, and will take effect whilst we are still in the EU, and therefore is not something to raise as a reason to leave the EU.
Political will is required to get a change implemented, whichever political system you are working within, leaving the EU is unlikely to give you and I any change in what products have VAT applied, or the rate used, and depending on the terms of our agreement with the EU regarding trade, may be even more difficult to change.
Now we have the issue of Tampons out of the way, can I borrow a line from James O'Brian and ask, "Which VAT rate is it you are not happy with?"

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The change you are referring to is most likely stuck firmly in the long grass, there is no detailed timetable or firm commitment that I can find.

What VAT rate am I unhappy about? Gas and electricity, for example. Can we change it to zero-rated? Not under the current rules.

Do you remember ever being asked if you agreed with the UK giving up the right to manage it's own VAT? No, me neither. Mr O'Brien would like us to forget that bit.

Anyway, question asked and answered

ManOfSussex said:

Well he's most welcome in Hastings anytime and a lot of people would buy the man a drink or two.

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He's a liberal, leftie shock jock, and there aren't many of them. He can be thought-provoking, and he can also be a bit of a tit.

I suspect he's drifted off the Newsnight back-up list these days

Steve in Japan said:

He's a liberal, leftie shock jock, and there aren't many of them. He can be thought-provoking, and he can also be a bit of a tit.

I suspect he's drifted off the Newsnight back-up list these days

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I can't really disagree with you there. I don't listen to him a great deal but he's something different.

Listening to the speeches from the Mansion House you can understand why Brexiteers want Brexit as fast as possible at any cost. The real fear for them is the economic downturn leading to a realisation and change of the public mood.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ohnson-brexit-britain-worse-off-a7798551.html

A smooth path to a land of cake and consumption?

Steve in Japan said:

He's a liberal, leftie shock jock, and there aren't many of them. He can be thought-provoking, and he can also be a bit of a tit.

I suspect he's drifted off the Newsnight back-up list these days

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Sometimes spot on though...


http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-proof-politicians-brexit-disaster/

nicko31 said:

Listening to the speeches from the Mansion House you can understand why Brexiteers want Brexit as fast as possible at any cost. The real fear for them is the economic downturn leading to a realisation and change of the public mood.

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Indeed - see these comments from George Soros:

"Economic reality is beginning to catch up with the false hopes of the general population. They believed the promises of the popular press that Brexit would not reduce their living standards, so they managed to maintain those standards by running up their household debts.

This worked for a while because household consumption stimulated the economy. But the moment of truth is fast approaching. As the latest figures published by the Bank of England show, wage growth is not keeping up with inflation, so that real incomes have begun to fall.

Once the experience of June is repeated in subsequent months, households will realize that their living standards are falling and they will have to adjust their spending habits. To make matters worse, they will also realize that they have become over-indebted and they will have to pay back their debts. This will reduce the household consumption that has sustained the economy even further. Moreover, the Bank of England has made the same mistake as the average household: it underestimated the impact of inflation and is now catching up by raising interest rates in a pro-cyclical manner.

We are fast approaching the tipping point that characterizes all unsustainable economic developments. In my theoretical writings, I refer to the tipping point as “reflexivity.”

Economic reality is reinforced by political reality. The fact is that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition, harmful both to Britain and the European Union. It cannot be undone, but people can change their minds. Apparently, this is happening.

Theresa May’s attempt to strengthen her negotiating position by holding a snap election has badly misfired: she lost her parliamentary majority. The primary cause of her defeat was her fatal misstep with the dementia tax that offended her core constituency, the elderly. But the increased participation of young people was also an important contributing factor. They voted for labor in protest, not because they wanted to join a trade union or support Jeremy Corbyn (although he gave an impressive performance). Their attitude to the single market is diametrically opposed to that of Theresa May. Young people are eager to find well-paying jobs, whether in Britain or elsewhere. In that respect, their interests correspond with the interests of the City of London, where some of those jobs are to be found.

If Theresa May wants to stay in power, she has to change her approach. There are signs she is prepared to do so. By approaching the negotiations starting on Monday in a conciliatory spirit, she could reach an agreement with the European Union on their agenda and agree to continue as a member of the single market for a long enough period to carry out all the legal work. This would be a great relief to the European Union because it would postpone the evil day when Britain’s absence would create an enormous hole in the EU’s budget. That would be a win-win arrangement.

Only by taking this path can she hope to persuade parliament to pass all the laws that need to be enacted. She may have to abandon her ill-considered alliance with the Ulster Unionists and side with the Tories of Scotland. She would also have to atone for the sins of the Tories in Kensington with regard to Grenfell Towers. She could then carry on leading a minority government, because nobody else would want to take her place. There are signs she is prepared to do so.

The divorce process would take at least five years to complete and during that time new elections would take place. If all went well, the two parties may want to remarry even before they have divorced."

Steve in Japan said:

The change you are referring to is most likely stuck firmly in the long grass, there is no detailed timetable or firm commitment that I can find.

What VAT rate am I unhappy about? Gas and electricity, for example. Can we change it to zero-rated? Not under the current rules.

Do you remember ever being asked if you agreed with the UK giving up the right to manage it's own VAT? No, me neither. Mr O'Brien would like us to forget that bit.

Anyway, question asked and answered

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When we joined the EU we had zero rate for domestic Gas and electricity, and were entitled to keep it that way, until Torys stuck 8%VAT on it, after that the lowest available rate the EU would permit is 5%.

Can we change it to zero? Possibly, but we would have to seek permission from the EU, the other 27 would have to agree to it.

Has any UK government sought to do this with the EU? No.

Baldseagull said:

I don't think that "our" position is as you describe, might be the Tory position. I think our position is that we would like the EU to work better than it does, waste less money and address the parts of existing treaties and policy that create difficulty and discontent in some states.
One of the reasons we have higher migration to the UK from Eastern Europe is that the EU gave a free hand to the Nation states as to how they wanted to limit immigration from the accession countries for the first 7 years of their membership, Tony Blair decided to impose no limits, the rest of the EU states limited numbers. Now they have full free movement across the EU, but the network that can help them is bigger and better established in the UK than anywhere else.
Perhaps if the EU had imposed limits on our behalf, we would not be about to leave it.

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I seem to remember you were a fully signed up ever closer union chap and that is the utimate goal of the EU. A few treaty adjustments and policy changes (you make it sound so simple) doesn't address that underlying point. Plus of course despite the ongoing Eurozone crisis (still bubbling away), migrant crisis, rise in extremism ... no significant reform or change of direction. They are clearly heading down the same track come what may .. a majority of the UK population wants to get off.

That was nice of them giving us a temporary window allowing us to control a small part of EU migration. Shame our elected representatives didn't have the power to reverse or alleviate the impact of that decision. Perhaps if we had full control of our borders back then we wouldnt be overly reliant on cheap EU Labour.

Lincoln Imp said:

Well it certainly wouldn't have been accommodated by a victorious Remain side announcing that it was using its slight majority as a go-ahead to enter Schengen and join the Euro.

The Leave side Europhobes, meanwhile, tell us (May's January speech, since confirmed) that they intend to use their slight majority in exactly that sort of way - as a go-ahead for the sort of hard Brexit that most of British industry is pleading with them not to pursue.

Put simply, they are exploiting the referendum result to pursue their own ideology in a way that doesn't reflect the 48/52 outcome. It was the clique's concern that they might not get away with it that led to the attempt to bypass Parliament and, when that failed at the hands of the "Enemies of the People", to increase their majority in the House. That went a bit wonky too. Obviously though, people who share their ideology will be pleased with their tactics and would like everyone who hasn't signed up to clutter off.

(Sorry I didn't respond earlier: I was being harangued by an old friend who told me he voted Leave because too many houses are having to be built between Hurstpierpoint and Hassocks.)

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Oh given time I expect they would.

There you go again reverting to this hard/soft brexit meaningless terminollogy. A tedious construct of remainers trying for a 2nd prize half in option.

Put simply the government and the EU understood that a vote to leave the EU meant we would leave the EU. No cherry picking .. it meant leaving the internal/single market, customs union and ending free movement . They have been rightly astonished at the lengths some people have gone to thwart or undermine this process while claiming to fully respect the result.

Fortunately the undemocratic loons have been seen off.

https://reader.chathamhouse.org/fut...6536#how-extensive-is-the-public-elite-divide

For the EU nerds (on both sides of the debate), Chatham House released this report today. They interviewed 10,000 members of the public in 10 EU countries, and 1800 "elites" (love that word) defined as individuals in positions of influence. Timing was December 2016 to February 2017, so post Brexit but pre Macron.

Quoting from the summary

The data reveal a continent split along three lines. First, there is a divide between elites and the public. There is alignment between the two groups in their attitudes to, among other things, EU solidarity, EU democracy and a sense of European identity. However, the data also show an important divide in general attitudes, beliefs and life experiences. The elite are more likely to experience the benefits of EU integration and are more liberal and optimistic. Meanwhile, there is simmering discontent within the public, large sections of whom view the EU in negative terms, want to see it return some powers to member states, and feel anxious over the effects of immigration. Only 34% of the public feel they have benefited from the EU, compared with 71% of the elite. A majority of the public (54%) think their country was a better place to live 20 years ago.


Second, within the public, there is a pronounced divide between more liberal and authoritarian-minded groups, particularly on issues of identity. This divide plays a much stronger role than other measures, such as economic status or experience of social hardship, in shaping attitudes towards the EU. The political challenges resulting from this divide are likely to persist for many years, even after economic growth is restored and sustained.

Third, there is a lack of consensus among the elite on important questions about the EU’s direction. While the elite overwhelmingly feel they have benefited from the EU, they are far from united in their attitudes to further integration. Contrary to assumptions that the elite are pro-integration, 28% support the status quo, 37% think the EU should get more powers, and 31% think the EU should return powers to member states. More oppose than support the eventual creation of a ‘United States of Europe’, although there is support for deeper eurozone integration.

Within the body of the report I thought this was interesting. There's a symmetry to the table that indicates the elites and the public are somewhat at odds. (I believe the UK responses were not included in this section as not relevant)



Anyway, for anybody who might be interested.