[Politics] Brexit

Herr Tubthumper said:

"Immigration Minister Brandon Lewis was speaking as the government commissioned a "detailed assessment" of the costs and benefits of EU migrants."

"Speaking in Sydney, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said he was unaware of the report that has been commissioned"



Arse and elbow spring to mind.

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nicko31 said:

Incidentally, Why has it taken the government a whole year to get round to making this assessment?

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Jim in the West said:

After this morning's announcement by Amber Rudd, I thought it worth a summary of where we are, 13 months after the Referendum:


1. We have given up our seat at the decision-making table of the bloc we've been part of for decades, which is also by far our biggest trading partner and, by the way, more or less the largest trading bloc and single mkt in the world.
2. Our biggest national industry - financial services - which is our biggest export and comprises 12-13% of GDP and employs many of the 300k people who pay 30% of all the income tax in the uk as well as the banks who pay a chunk in corporation taxes and bank super taxes etc, has started to dismantle itself to head into the EU so it can continue its business.
3. We re-open the NI problem and potentially lose the peace dividend, which means maybe we get a return of Ira terrorism etc.
4. We discover the whole Euratom issue, and construction of all these regulators we'll need, both associates and unassociated with that;
5. We look forward to a decade or more of legal minefields trying to unlock this Gordian knot of legislation we've shared with the EU over decades;
6. We chuck the economy into a major league recession b/c of the uncertainty and disinvestment etc alone, even before we got near the exit gates;
7. Then, reality starts finally to dawn on us and we start trying to haggle for a "transitional" arrangement as the cliff edge looms into view, probably too late to change course or get agreement from the EU 27 erstwhile partners;
8. Finally, we realise we can't actually function as a nation without all the immigrant skilled and unskilled workers who are employed in our economy in the first place, getting rid of whom was a primary argument for many leave voters.

[I've excluded the exchange rate issue, which has made us 15% poorer vis-a-vis the rest of the world, and probably missed other stuff. Are there any positives...?]

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Westdene Seagull said:

A majority of your points of 'where we are' are actually predictions - i.e. they haven't happened and there is no reason why they should. Of course they make nice doom-mongering.

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nicko31 said:

Unfortunately, Labour are just the same. I've joined to Lib Dems this week, the only party with a clear objective

Incidentally, Why has it taken the government a whole year to get round to making this assessment?

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Jim in the West said:

In new news, the Office for Statistics Regulation has found that the government estimates of foreign students staying in the UK illegally (after their course finishes) is wrong. The government estimate was 100,000 per annum. The true figure is "likely to be about 1% of that number". So - government stats only wrong by 99%. I hope the Daily Mail and Torygraph will highlight these errors.....

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nicko31 said:

Unfortunately, Labour are just the same. I've joined to Lib Dems this week, the only party with a clear objective

Incidentally, Why has it taken the government a whole year to get round to making this assessment?

Click to expand...

Jim in the West said:

After this morning's announcement by Amber Rudd, I thought it worth a summary of where we are, 13 months after the Referendum:


1. We have given up our seat at the decision-making table of the bloc we've been part of for decades, which is also by far our biggest trading partner and, by the way, more or less the largest trading bloc and single mkt in the world.
2. Our biggest national industry - financial services - which is our biggest export and comprises 12-13% of GDP and employs many of the 300k people who pay 30% of all the income tax in the uk as well as the banks who pay a chunk in corporation taxes and bank super taxes etc, has started to dismantle itself to head into the EU so it can continue its business.
3. We re-open the NI problem and potentially lose the peace dividend, which means maybe we get a return of Ira terrorism etc.
4. We discover the whole Euratom issue, and construction of all these regulators we'll need, both associates and unassociated with that;
5. We look forward to a decade or more of legal minefields trying to unlock this Gordian knot of legislation we've shared with the EU over decades;
6. We chuck the economy into a major league recession b/c of the uncertainty and disinvestment etc alone, even before we got near the exit gates;
7. Then, reality starts finally to dawn on us and we start trying to haggle for a "transitional" arrangement as the cliff edge looms into view, probably too late to change course or get agreement from the EU 27 erstwhile partners;
8. Finally, we realise we can't actually function as a nation without all the immigrant skilled and unskilled workers who are employed in our economy in the first place, getting rid of whom was a primary argument for many leave voters.

[I've excluded the exchange rate issue, which has made us 15% poorer vis-a-vis the rest of the world, and probably missed other stuff. Are there any positives...?]

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Westdene Seagull said:

David Bellotti, Norman Baker, LDC ...... hmmmmm

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nicko31 said:

Is that the best you've got?

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Westdene Seagull said:

A majority of your points of 'where we are' are actually predictions - i.e. they haven't happened and there is no reason why they should. Of course they make nice doom-mongering.

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pastafarian said:

Well here is the report by The Office for Statistics Regulation you are talking about.(published today)
Perhaps you could highlight the part where you saw them assess gov stats as "99% wrong".
Maybe just highlight the bit that says "likely to be about 1% of that number"

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov...of-long-term-student-migration-statistics.pdf

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Jim in the West said:

The report highlights that the government previously presented data showing the average number of net student immigrants is around 110,000 pa. The implication (as reported by the DM, etc) is that all these 110,000 were therefore staying beyond the period of their study. However, the Home Office separately admitted that only 1,500 stay illegally. The problem is that the ONS data is flawed, can't count the students in and out properly, and doesn't take into account the time-lag between students entering the UK and leaving. This report takes ONS (i.e. the government) to task for the failure in its methodology. The true extent of the "problem" is therefore 1,500 students pa, not 110,000. The former figure is roughly 1% of the latter.

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pastafarian said:

So you couldn’t find in the The Office for Statistics Regulation report an assessment that gov figures were 99% wrong and couldn’t find the part either that said "likely to be about 1% of that number"

Perhaps you could dig out the home Office statement that said
“the Home Office separately admitted that only 1,500 stay illegally”.

It would certainly be at odds with the Guardians reporting that said the Home Office denied it.
The Home Office said the contents of the report(Times) were inaccurate. “There is no secret report and we do not recognise the 1% figure,” a spokesperson said. “We are continuing to analyse the data collected since exit checks were introduced to ensure that it is statistically robust.”
https://www.theguardian.com/educati...call-on-universities-to-help-them-with-access

Perhaps you are just putting too much reliance on a Times article that reported this figure (1500)saying it was in a Home Office report even though they admitted they hadn’t actually read a Home office report with these figures in it.

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nicko31 said:

Is that the best you've got?

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Westdene Seagull said:

Members of that political party nearly put the Albion out of business. They lied about many things as did a Lib Dem MP and a Lib Dem council. The party leadership just shrugged their shoulders - couldn't have given a toss. Even when a member of NSC ( Locky ? ) spotted a senior party member out having a meal and sat down and explained everything they did nothing and didn't care. They even gave Bellotti another chance in politics in Bath. So if you want to get into bed with a party that nearly destroyed the Albion feel free, I assume it won't be long before you start supporting Palace.

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