[Politics] Brexit

Kinky Gerbil · Mar 30, 2017

GT49er said:
Have you no heard of the Great Repeal Bill, the White Paper for which is due to be published today?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/brexit-explained-great-repeal-bill

This will enshrine all the European laws from the last 40 years into British law, so there will be no sudden black hole in the legislation. Parliament can then decide as and when which bits it repeals or replaces. Presumably, then, this rule will still apply, and if Parliament thinks it is a good thing they won't change it.

Sure, and what if they don't like that part of it...... They can change it at will (I believe)

Driver8 · Mar 30, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
I doubt £650 million investment would be heading to Heathrow if there was any realistic chance of the doomsday scenario occurring, do you? World's biggest sovereign wealth funds not good enough then.

A high proportion of Heathrow's passengers are just transferring flights to go elsewhere.

Baldseagull · Mar 30, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
I doubt £650 million investment would be heading to Heathrow if there was any realistic chance of the doomsday scenario occurring, do you? World's biggest sovereign wealth funds not good enough then.

Nobody thinks that if an agreement is not sorted soon there will be no flights ever, but there could be a period where planes are grounded. Heathrow itself will not suffer too badly from that, the shops and airlines will.
The risk in an investment in Heathrow, is that by being outside the EU, it loses more hub business to Schipol and others inside the EU. This will reduce the footfall that they provide to the shops, and therefore the chargeable rents, and the fees from the airlines.

Nobody thinks Heathrow will close, it will still be a profitable airport, but it will probably be less profitable.

mikeyjh · Mar 30, 2017

GT49er said:
Have you no heard of the Great Repeal Bill, the White Paper for which is due to be published today?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/brexit-explained-great-repeal-bill

This will enshrine all the European laws from the last 40 years into British law, so there will be no sudden black hole in the legislation. Parliament can then decide as and when which bits it repeals or replaces. Presumably, then, this rule will still apply, and if Parliament thinks it is a good thing they won't change it.

Just like that eh? Writing bills, agreeing them in parliament, taking them through the Lords, just like that? And it's going to removing all the little bits of regulation that the brexiteers don't like. Just like that. Fantasy politics.

GT49er · Mar 30, 2017

Kinky Gerbils said:
Sure, and what if they don't like that part of it...... They can change it at will (I believe)

I've no idea whether the 49% restriction is a good thing or a bad thing. You appear to very worried they might change it. Well, I suppose they might (or might not!) - the point, however, is that it won't automatically be scrapped by the Brexit process.

JC Footy Genius · Mar 30, 2017

Kinky Gerbils said:
You are more than likely right, but to suggest airlines are not worried and dismissing the problem is foolish - they are 100% are - the ones that fly to the EU more so - Norwegian Air are taking the piss with some of the rates they charge, which UK companies are struggling to match at the moment - this will be even harder moving forward.

It goes back to the point I made yesterday, we have 2 years to sort out massive issues - with each sector suggesting they have the biggest impact on the UK and will take months to sort out.

Thank you. As I said previously I don't blame individual sectors for fighting their corner and yes, of course, the negotiations will be fiendishly complicated. Not so sure about people who continually highlight the worst case scenarios no matter how unlikely just to bash Brexit though.

I expect a lengthy transitional period will be needed for numerous sectors.

Soulman · Mar 30, 2017

Baldseagull said:
Nobody thinks that if an agreement is not sorted soon there will be no flights ever, but there could be a period where planes are grounded. Heathrow itself will not suffer too badly from that, the shops and airlines will.
The risk in an investment in Heathrow, is that by being outside the EU, it loses more hub business to Schipol and others inside the EU. This will reduce the footfall that they provide to the shops, and therefore the chargeable rents, and the fees from the airlines.

Nobody thinks Heathrow will close, it will still be a profitable airport, but it will probably be less profitable.

Could, might, probably.....

Kinky Gerbil · Mar 30, 2017

GT49er said:
I've no idea whether the 49% restriction is a good thing or a bad thing. You appear to very worried they might change it. Well, I suppose they might (or might not!) - the point, however, is that it won't automatically be scrapped by the Brexit process.

From a UK job point of view its a bad thing, why would Delta if they owned 51% keep the number of heads in the UK?

They would not need to.

Kinky Gerbil · Mar 30, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
Thank you. As I said previously I don't blame individual sectors for fighting their corner and yes, of course, the negotiations will be fiendishly complicated. Not so sure about people who continually highlight the worst case scenarios no matter how unlikely just to bash Brexit though.

I expect a lengthy transitional period will be needed for numerous sectors.

Because it is a potential, and it highlights how foolish (in my view) it was - unnecessary risk

ManOfSussex · Mar 30, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
I expect a lengthy transitional period will be needed for numerous sectors.

Then what happens when these and other transitional arrangements, if they happen, go on well beyond 2019 though?

Is that acceptable though? There are reportedly several EU institutions we will need to stay under the remit of during such transitional arrangements. For how long? Is that Brexit meaning Brexit? I get the distinct impression some people may be disappointed with such an outcome - http://www.ukip.org/six_key_tests_to_prove_brexit_means_exit

Baldseagull · Mar 30, 2017

beorhthelm said:
the trickle has been there for years, offices move, jobs come and go. last week Deutsche Bank took out new lease on offices in London, as one counter example to this claim of an exodus. companies will move some operations to EU, meanwhile their will be some EU based firms looking to move operations to London to maintain access to the markets here. some will see risks, some will see opportunities.

its like the stories of the airline above: Heathrow investors are continuing because they see the long game, while Ryan air claims they will move operations looking for short term gain (its hardly a surprise they see growth elsewhere than the saturated UK market). its going to be a long couple of years pouring over every claim and counter claim, most of which will be full of bias and bluster to furnish agendas, probably a good idea to switch off from the whole thing and come back in 2019 to see what the final score is.

Deutsche bank are not moving jobs from Germany to London, they are moving London employees in various buildings to one building, I suspect that some of the 7,000 employees will be cut in the process and some will move into the EU.

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 30, 2017

GT49er said:
Have you no heard of the Great Repeal Bill, the White Paper for which is due to be published today?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/brexit-explained-great-repeal-bill

Yes. I've heard. Who is going to administer and uphold the laws though?

GT49er · Mar 30, 2017

mikeyjh said:
Just like that eh? Writing bills, agreeing them in parliament, taking them through the Lords, just like that?

Yes, that is the normal process for legislation in our democratic system. 'Just like that' is a rather flippant way of describing the democratic legislative process though; there is usually quite a lot of consideration and debate that goes into the process as it passes on its way.

mikeyjh said:
And it's going to removing all the little bits of regulation that the brexiteers don't like.

Actually, it will be 'all the little bits' that Parliament doesn't like. Only it won't be 'all the little bits' just like that; changes will be made and some of the laws will be repealed or replaced as and when the Government sees fit, after due consideration and debate in Parliament. I seem to remember remainers had some fantasy politics dream of reforming the EU - well, now they will at least be able to reform some of the laws they feel the EU should have reformed.

mikeyjh said:
Just like that. Fantasy politics.

Yeh, right.......................................

GT49er · Mar 30, 2017

Kinky Gerbils said:
From a UK job point of view its a bad thing, why would Delta if they owned 51% keep the number of heads in the UK?

They would not need to.

Fair enough. You'll be glad to know that it's not happening, then. Well, not unless the UK government decide to change it at a later date.

Baldseagull · Mar 30, 2017

GT49er said:
Have you no heard of the Great Repeal Bill, the White Paper for which is due to be published today?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/brexit-explained-great-repeal-bill

This will enshrine all the European laws from the last 40 years into British law, so there will be no sudden black hole in the legislation. Parliament can then decide as and when which bits it repeals or replaces. Presumably, then, this rule will still apply, and if Parliament thinks it is a good thing they won't change it.

The sovereignty of Parliament will be bypassed in most of the changes to incorporated EU law.

GT49er · Mar 30, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Yes. I've heard. Who is going to administer and uphold the laws though?

I think you'll find this is traditionally the role of our democratically elected Parliament, backed by the independent judiciary..

GT49er · Mar 30, 2017

Baldseagull said:
The sovereignty of Parliament will be bypassed in most of the changes to incorporated EU law.

Here, have one of these -

http://www.otherwisetrading.co.uk/house/1houseballs.htm

JC Footy Genius · Mar 30, 2017

Baldseagull said:
Nobody thinks that if an agreement is not sorted soon there will be no flights ever, but there could be a period where planes are grounded. Heathrow itself will not suffer too badly from that, the shops and airlines will.
The risk in an investment in Heathrow, is that by being outside the EU, it loses more hub business to Schipol and others inside the EU. This will reduce the footfall that they provide to the shops, and therefore the chargeable rents, and the fees from the airlines.

Nobody thinks Heathrow will close, it will still be a profitable airport, but it will probably be less profitable.

Or the far more likely none of the above.

You don't think anyone is sensible enough to opt for transitional arrangements rather than grounding flights causing chaos then.

World largest Sovereign wealth funds seem OK with the risk.

I'm adding this to your Brexit predictions LIST.

CHAPPERS · Mar 30, 2017

I see that Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, was not part of the process to draft the Article 50 letter.

Odd.

ManOfSussex · Mar 30, 2017

CHAPPERS said:
I see that Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, was not part of the process to draft the Article 50 letter.

Odd.

Yes he is.

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