The Jeremy Corbyn thread

GT49er · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
Er, the Lib Dems are campaigning on the ticket of giving the British public a chance to vote on the deal, so it might not come to us quitting the EU in the first place. Nothing cloud cuckoo about that. There is nothing done and dusted about Brexit at all. It was a non-binding referendum with a paper thin majority where nobody actually knows what Brexit will mean. With that in mind, a referendum on the deal seems a perfectly reasonable policy.

There are likely to be far more people who don't want a second referendum. Leavers, for a start, plus those who voted remain but have since accepted the will of the majority. We all know that the vast majority of Westminster politicians are pro Brussels - unlike the electorate. If there appears to be some sort of coup in the offing to thwart the will of the British people, that might just not go down too well. Any sort of hung Parliament or coalition would then be far more likely to involve UKIP than the Lib Dems (who are still toxic with many voters for getting into bed with the Tories anyway).

spring hall convert · Sep 29, 2016

Biscuit Barrel said:
The fact that Corbyn's position has been strengthened will mean that things will get worse. All the time he is leader the party will go from disaster to disaster. He has been in charge of the party just over 12 months and all that has happened is "trench warfare" within the party and continued division within the party.

It's a tricky position though. Two big reasons that Corbyn got back in this time 1) Large portions of the membership felt that Corbyn was not given a fair crack of the whip by the PLP, including some that didn't vote for him last time 2) Owen Smith.

They need to sort at least one of these things out, possibly both, to get rid of him through a future leadership contest. I'm not saying it won't happen but continued undermining of the leadership in the meantime would likely be counter productive.

The worst case scenario for May is the open war in the Labour Party becomes a phony one for the next 12 months or so and a candidate emerges (early days but perhaps Clive Lewis) that both wings of the party can get behind. I think this Corbynista talk is overplayed a little, the people that voted Corbyn in this election that I know
can see his limitations and are open to a different leader but they felt that Owen Smith was lightweight and untrustworthy.

JC Footy Genius · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
I agree it will not rest on how Brexit serves us - that particular shìt show won't appear for about 15 years. Luckily we will have a GE (or maybe 2) before it happens, and I'm confident that a re-energised Lib Dem party will be involved in this. With the Labour party lurching to an unelectable extreme left and the Lib Dems the only true pro-EU party, they are finally in a position to position themselves as something quite separate from both of the two main parties. I think they are going to tick all the boxes for up to 25% of the electorate, which might be enough to force a hung parliament.

Mmmmm ... I note the Lib Dems are currently flatlining in the polls despite the ongoing (over a year now) Labour meltdown and when any residual remain voter resentment at the referendum result is still a factor. It also looks like around 28-33 % ish of Labour voters may stick with the brand come what may. Whereas the soft Labour vote (over 50% of Labour voters who voted leave say they are unlikely to vote for Labour again) obviously won't be heading in a Lib Dem direction. UKIP are more likely to attract this vote.

If the Lib Dems go into the next election on a second referendum/re join the EU ticket I think it more likely they will struggle to get into double figures.

Labour is losing its Leave voters

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters/

Simster · Sep 29, 2016

GT49er said:
There are likely to be far more people who don't want a second referendum. Leavers, for a start, plus those who voted remain but have since accepted the will of the majority. We all know that the vast majority of Westminster politicians are pro Brussels - unlike the electorate. If there appears to be some sort of coup in the offing to thwart the will of the British people, that might just not go down too well. Any sort of hung Parliament or coalition would then be far more likely to involve UKIP than the Lib Dems (who are still toxic with many voters for getting into bed with the Tories anyway).

IF it's the will of the people, you won't worry about a second referendum then.

Biscuit · Sep 29, 2016

Corbyn preparing for a general election is like me preparing to shag Michelle Keegan. We might well want the gig, but there's **** all chance of it happening.

Biscuit Barrel · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
IF it's the will of the people, you won't worry about a second referendum then.

Grow up.

Simster · Sep 29, 2016

Biscuit Barrel said:
Grow up.

What an odd thing to say.

Biscuit Barrel · Sep 29, 2016

I said it because I am fed up with people (people who voted remain) asking for a second referendum.

These people are starting to sound like Nicola Sturgeon. She's had two referendums in two years and lost them both. She will keep demanding referendums until she wins one.

spring hall convert · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
IF it's the will of the people, you won't worry about a second referendum then.

You know as a remainer who would vote remain again and believes strongly that we made the wrong decision, there is no way I want to go through that again in the near future, even if you guaranteed me we would vote remain.

It was a horrible time. Nothing that made it horrible would change, I'd argue that it would probably be worse. And for what? A debate that doesn't categorically have an answer and 6 weeks of the media demonising immigrants in increasingly hysterical terms. No thanks.

Soulman · Sep 29, 2016

Biscuit Barrel said:
I said it because I am fed up with people (people who voted remain) asking for a second referendum.

These people are starting to sound like Nicola Sturgeon. She's had two referendums in two years and lost them both. She will keep demanding referendums until she wins one.

Correct.

beorhthelm · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
IF it's the will of the people, you won't worry about a second referendum then.

isnt it a shame that when Boris mooted there could be a second referendum early on, the Remain camp soundly stamped on it: this is it, only one referendum, we cant vote leave then change our minds later, they said.

i think its far too to say it cant happen, if the remain camp had left this open it would be part of the leave mandate to seek a confirmation. as it stands the will of the people is to leave, if we dont respect that why should we respect a second referendum if the vote switches to remain?

Hastings gull · Sep 29, 2016

beorhthelm said:
isnt it a shame that when Boris mooted there could be a second referendum early on, the Remain camp soundly stamped on it: this is it, only one referendum, we cant vote leave then change our minds later, they said.

i think its far too to say it cant happen, if the remain camp had left this open it would be part of the leave mandate to seek a confirmation. as it stands the will of the people is to leave, if we dont respect that why should we respect a second referendum if the vote switches to remain?

Absolutely. If you have a referendum, then you abide by the result -and I voted Remain, by the way.

Triggaaar · Sep 29, 2016

The Clamp said:
The majority of leave voters were very suggestable, they fell for the whole thing. The £350m, immigration, overpaying for little return. Of course, they all claim now to not have believed a word of it but they did

Actually, I made it clear before the vote that I didn't believe those claims, just like I didn't believe the claims of the remainers that the world would end if we left.

Hastings gull · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
He is remarkably feeble at this debating lark isn't he? His modus-operandi is to pompously declare his opinions as fact, but under the teeniest bit of scrutiny he - without fail - completely crumples with nonsense about playing the ball not the man, or being incapable of backing up his assertions with evidence, or even explaining his position properly. Just wait until he decides "you're not worth the effort", then he'll unilaterally decide that explaining himself isn't even necessary. Possibly signing off with "have a good day" or something else that makes him feel grown up despite being shown up.

Or, when really desperate, he says that you have not understood what he was going on about.

Hastings gull · Sep 29, 2016

Biscuit Barrel said:
Maybe he is just saying this to try and stop the "trench warfare" within his own party by saying they need to prepare for an early election.

He must believe this as he would not lie. He is far to decent and honest to lie. He is such a nice bloke that he sits on the floor of trains when all the seats are take by peoples luggage or very small people that can't be seen by CCTV.

Thanks for this -I too had not realised how kind he is . .

Kalimantan Gull · Sep 29, 2016

Simster said:
I agree it will not rest on how Brexit serves us - that particular shìt show won't appear for about 15 years. Luckily we will have a GE (or maybe 2) before it happens, and I'm confident that a re-energised Lib Dem party will be involved in this. With the Labour party lurching to an unelectable extreme left and the Lib Dems the only true pro-EU party, they are finally in a position to position themselves as something quite separate from both of the two main parties. I think they are going to tick all the boxes for up to 25% of the electorate, which might be enough to force a hung parliament.

GT49er said:
Ah yes, the re-vitalised Lib Dem party that still believes it will rise to power and lead us back into the EU. Once we have Brexited, rejoining the EU (if it even still exists) will not be an option. Not even if 100% of the British electorate vote for it, because that decision won't be up to Britain. That part of Lib Dem vision is as much a part of cloud cuckoo land as McDonnell's apparent belief that the majority of the British electorate will vote for a hard-core left wing socialist government.

I think the point is more that that people will vote for the LibDems in that hope for a second referendum, not that the LibDems will ever get the chance to enact that policy. A group of 20% or so of the country could make a difference in the result (although I imagine a lot will be disgruntled Labour voters)

Simster · Sep 29, 2016

beorhthelm said:
isnt it a shame that when Boris mooted there could be a second referendum early on, the Remain camp soundly stamped on it: this is it, only one referendum, we cant vote leave then change our minds later, they said.

i think its far too to say it cant happen, if the remain camp had left this open it would be part of the leave mandate to seek a confirmation. as it stands the will of the people is to leave, if we dont respect that why should we respect a second referendum if the vote switches to remain?

Yet Nigel Farage said if it was 52-48 remain, then it was far from over. Regardless, if the negotiated deal is a truly crap one, how is it serving the country well NOT to have a vote on it?

spring hall convert · Sep 29, 2016

GT49er said:
Ah yes, the re-vitalised Lib Dem party that still believes it will rise to power and lead us back into the EU. Once we have Brexited, rejoining the EU (if it even still exists) will not be an option. Not even if 100% of the British electorate vote for it, because that decision won't be up to Britain. That part of Lib Dem vision is as much a part of cloud cuckoo land as McDonnell's apparent belief that the majority of the British electorate will vote for a hard-core left wing socialist government.

Rejoining the EU would mean The Euro and Schengen. Not going to happen.

Buzzer · Sep 29, 2016

spring hall convert said:
You know as a remainer who would vote remain again and believes strongly that we made the wrong decision, there is no way I want to go through that again in the near future, even if you guaranteed me we would vote remain.

It was a horrible time. Nothing that made it horrible would change, I'd argue that it would probably be worse. And for what? A debate that doesn't categorically have an answer and 6 weeks of the media demonising immigrants in increasingly hysterical terms. No thanks.

Excellent post. We do need to sort it out and have a fair policy on immigration but the EU referendum brought out the worst on all sides and even now we're still getting scare stories from one side and crudely playing on people's emotions from the other. Remember in Drop The Dead Donkey when the war reporter always had a teddy bear to hand to drop into news footage of conflicts? That was basically Yvette Cooper's speech yesterday when she talked about the camp at Calais and today there's a Labour MP who has basically re-hashed Nigel Farage's speech about impending race riots in UK cities. Neither positions do anything except polarise the debate further.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...immigration-riots_uk_57ea791ee4b00e5804ef5ae0

Brovion · Sep 29, 2016

spring hall convert said:
Even if you believe the Corbyn 'electability' thing, it's a two way street. The Tories could very easily become unelectable, especially with an extremely tough Brexit negotiation to navigate and a precarious global economy that hasn't really recovered from the last crash.

If I were Theresa May, I'd strike while the iron's hot. It's hard to see Labour reaching a lower point than they are at currently, she'd have a monster majority.

That's exactly it. As Buzzer has said all the data, every single metric you look at, they all point to a massive Labour defeat - today.

However given time, a 'bad' Brexit, a recession, a scandal, and even if people still don't like Corbyn they might vote against the Tories on the 'throw the *******s out' principle.

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