[Politics] Brexit

ManOfSussex · Jul 22, 2016

The Clamp said:
Well, like we are trying to tell you, it'll take a while for it to sink in.

But it will.

I just noted the comments by the Chinese finance minister prior to Brexit. He seemed to me to take an honest, neutral standpoint on Brexit by saying -

Before Britain voted to leave the EU, China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said the consequences were unclear, but that they would be felt for years to come.
Mr Lou said Brexit would "cast a shadow over the global economy" and that the "repercussions and fallout" would emerge over the next five to 10 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864099

Whether Brexit is a success, a disaster, or an indifference, what things are like in 10 years time might give us a more realistic idea in my opinion.

beorhthelm · Jul 22, 2016

The Clamp said:
When Brexit does take full effect in a couple of years and Brexiteers realise what they have actually voted for. [when] The only international trade we can secure is through toxic deals with toxic countries ...when energy and utility prices soar with little or no regulation...

i know the doom is deeply ingrained, but im curious why is leaving going to restrict international trade to certain countries? do you also understand the regulation from EU on energy imposes carbon tax and other green levies, adding over £100 to average bill?

JC Footy Genius · Jul 22, 2016

ManOfSussex said:
I just noted the comments by the Chinese finance minister prior to Brexit. He seemed to me to take an honest, neutral standpoint on Brexit by saying -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864099

Whether Brexit is a success, a disaster, or an indifference, what things are like in 10 years time might give us a more realistic idea in my opinion.

Indeed, which makes all the seizing on data or comments be they positive or negative a month after the vote rather pointless... but vaguely amusing/irritating, depending on your pov.

ManOfSussex · Jul 22, 2016

JC Footy Genius said:
Indeed, which makes all the seizing on data or comments be they positive or negative a month after the vote rather pointless... but vaguely amusing/irritating, depending on your pov.

I know we voted differently in the referendum [MENTION=33253]JC Footy Genius[/MENTION] but on that point I agree with you entirely.

Baldseagull · Jul 22, 2016

beorhthelm said:
i know the doom is deeply ingrained, but im curious why is leaving going to restrict international trade to certain countries? do you also understand the regulation from EU on energy imposes carbon tax and other green levies, adding over £100 to average bill?

I hope the UK would remain committed to the Kyoto agreement, but you could be correct and we throw out measures to improve, or at least reduce the damage we do to the environment. More good news for the grandkids.

5ways · Jul 22, 2016

JC Footy Genius said:
Indeed, which makes all the seizing on data or comments be they positive or negative a month after the vote rather pointless... but vaguely amusing/irritating, depending on your pov.

That's not quite true. The data which is trickling out shows sharp downturns in investment and confidence. We haven't even taken the plunge yet, we're just dangling the sacrificial article 50 dagger above our chest waiting for Scotland to give us the all-clear to commit what is a committable offence.

Bold Seagull · Jul 22, 2016

Or the government delays things in the hope there is a collective forgetfulness...

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-economic-consequences-may-never-happen-2016-7

5ways · Jul 22, 2016

From the FT. Free to read: https://next.ft.com/content/b95af98a-4e5e-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a

So far there is little evidence of companies moving operations out of the UK though several businesses reported that they were considering doing so.

Among businesses that are worried about hiring, there is also considerable concern about the potential loss of eastern European labour among employers who rely on it.

Consumer spending on services and non-durable goods appears to have held up and activity in the housing market has been more resilient than some of the BoE’s contacts had expected. But consumer spending will be sensitive to falls in disposable income, which are expected as the recent depreciation of sterling feeds through into higher prices.

In expectation of these sorts of change in behaviour, many economists have revised down their forecasts for UK growth, by an average of 0.3 percentage points for this year, and 0.6 percentage points next year, according to a summary published by the Treasury on Wednesday.

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F836e0396-4ea2-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

● Signal for growth
Poor

● Reason to be cautious
House purchases are about confidence — it is a market that can quickly change so more data are needed before a clear trend is established.

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F7fc98a6c-4ea2-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

● Signal for growth
Poor

● Reason to be cautious
Although these scores were a very good leading indicator of the 2008 recession, they were not so good at picking up the 2013 recovery.

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F80bcd15e-4ea2-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

How businesses feel about the outlook is a crucial indicator about how likely they are to hire and invest. The signs from the manufacturing sector and large companies are not good. Deloitte reports confidence has tumbled since the Brexit vote, with most finance chiefs surveyed expecting to reduce hiring and investment over the next 12 months.

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F844bf192-4ea2-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

Consumer confidence is usually correlated with the ups and downs of the UK economy.

Ipsos MORI, the pollster, reports that economic optimism has fallen to its lowest since January 2012, with 57 per cent thinking the UK’s economic condition will worsen over the next 12 months. This is up from 29 per cent last month.

Many of the groups seeing the biggest increases in pessimism were also those more likely to have voted Remain: young people; mortgage holders and private renters (compared with those who own outright and social renters); social grades AB (compared with C2DE); and those in London and Scotland.

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F819c7034-4ea2-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

● Signal for growth
Poor

● Reason to be cautious
The number of people visiting shops does not translate directly into the amount of money spent.

beorhthelm · Jul 22, 2016

Baldseagull said:
I hope the UK would remain committed to the Kyoto agreement, but you could be correct and we throw out measures to improve, or at least reduce the damage we do to the environment. More good news for the grandkids.

unlikely we are going to cease commitments to Kyoto, but as we're ahead of target we can take our foot offthe pedal. the EU regulations around CO2 are particularly costly, for one thing making consumers contribute directly while protecting industry, while imposing restrictions on any coal fired plants even if substantialy reducing emissions over old tech, then theres the energy meter debacle handed down by EU directives. EU policy has been hijacked green lobbiest, with French nuclear and German industry the only counterweights, so the consumer picks up the very expensive bill.

pastafarian · Jul 22, 2016

The Clamp said:
when people with talents and skills we need don't come here anymore, not even because they can't but because they simply don't want to work in a country that rejects unity,.

you have been brainwashed into believing this nonsense.
its barking mad to believe people are going to stop wanting to come to this country.

The Clamp said:
when you realise you are a bout 50 years too late to get rid of brown people,

whats wrong with brown people?
how is a vote to end free movement from Europe and have the same immigration system for everyone equally, anything to do with getting rid of brown people

The Clamp said:
when you realise Polish people didn't cause the financial crisis .

Polish people didnt cause the financial crisis, you are the first person i have ever heard even suggesting a link

The Clamp said:
when you realise Islamic extremists didn't leave when we strengthened our borders

didnt realise strengthening our borders was going to make home grown extremists leave in the first place,was this an actual thing or something you just thought up in your head?

The Clamp said:
Then you may just realise what you have voted for..

Yeah, a vote to leave The EU.
but seems the main dire consequence is the constant moaning and doom mongering from self loathers who are clueless as to why people voted Leave.

The Clamp · Jul 22, 2016

beorhthelm said:
unlikely we are going to cease commitments to Kyoto, but as we're ahead of target we can take our foot offthe pedal. the EU regulations around CO2 are particularly costly, for one thing making consumers contribute directly while protecting industry, while imposing restrictions on any coal fired plants even if substantialy reducing emissions over old tech, then theres the energy meter debacle handed down by EU directives. EU policy has been hijacked green lobbiest, with French nuclear and German industry the only counterweights, so the consumer picks up the very expensive bill.

Once EU breaks for energy companies don't apply to the UK anymore, bills will soar.

The Clamp · Jul 22, 2016

pastafarian said:
you have been brainwashed into believing this nonsense.
its barking mad to believe people are going to stop wanting to come to this country.

whats wrong with brown people?
how is a vote to end free movement from Europe and have the same immigration system for everyone equally, anything to do with getting rid of brown people

Polish people didnt cause the financial crisis, you are the first person i have ever heard even suggesting a link

didnt realise strengthening our borders was going to make home grown extremists leave in the first place,was this an actual thing or something you just thought up in your head?

Yeah, a vote to leave The EU.
but seems the main dire consequence is the constant moaning and doom mongering from self loathers who are clueless as to why people voted Leave.

Pastafarian in "Nothing can possibly go wrong because the majority voted for Brexit and we had good intent so that means it cannot be wrong" re-hash shocker. Yawn.

pastafarian · Jul 22, 2016

The Clamp said:
Pastafarian in "Nothing can possibly go wrong because the majority voted for Brexit and we had good intent so that means it cannot be wrong" re-hash shocker. Yawn.

Not at all.
just pointing out your lies and BS on certain points,

The Clamp · Jul 22, 2016

pastafarian said:
Not at all.
just pointing out your lies and BS on certain points,

Uh-hu. How would NSC ever do without you :yawn:

beorhthelm · Jul 22, 2016

The Clamp said:
Once EU breaks for energy companies don't apply to the UK anymore, bills will soar.

nope, there are no EU subsidies on our energy, there's no reason for energy to rise due to leaving the EU. and plese let us know why leaving the EU will restrict who we can trade with, or was that just empty rhetoric?

The Clamp · Jul 22, 2016

beorhthelm said:
nope, there are no EU subsidies on our energy, there's no reason for energy to rise due to leaving the EU. and plese let us know why leaving the EU will restrict who we can trade with, or was that just empty rhetoric?

It's the British government that put carbon levies on UK energy, not the EU.
The EU subsidises private energy firms that supply the UK. Only if the UK is in the EU.
We will probably beg to stay on in the cross border Energy Union Project but as a non eu nation we won't be involved or have any input in policy so will get a pretty shitty deal and face higher costs. But mainly the EU fund energy projects in the UK such as EIB for EFTA. It is likely that it will become unlawful for the EU to fund any project in a nation outside of the EU.

To pick up on your carbon charges point, that can go a couple of ways. We could drop the charge and de-regulate. This means we would not be able to export energy abroad. Not good.

Or we keep the charge, making your point void.

If you're going to call bullshit, at least get your own facts straight.

Trade deals we make will likely be hard won and come with caveats about working hours and workers rights. We will have countries that won't want to work with us because we cannot guarantee workers rights outside of eu regulation and those that do want to trade will give us awful deals and will be with other countries that have appalling workers rights records.

Not set in stone but it's my belief this will play out. I know you lot want to believe it's all going to be rosy and if anyone dares suggest otherwise we are "self loathers" or not loyal to our country or moaners. What so many Brexiters just plain ignore is that yes, we pay a lot of money to the EU and yes, we have to follow legislation set by the EP but we get A LOT in return plus we get multi national expertise.

We'll see. We'll see.

pastafarian · Jul 22, 2016

The Clamp said:
Uh-hu. How would NSC ever do without you

prob just fine
you carry on lying and ill carry on pointing it out.......sounds like a fair deal.

The Clamp · Jul 22, 2016

pastafarian said:
prob just fine
you carry on lying and ill carry on pointing it out.......sounds like a fair deal.

I'll keep on saying things you don't agree with / don't understand and you keep getting your pompous knickers in a twist about it.....Sounds like a fair deal.

studio150 · Jul 22, 2016

pastafarian said:
prob just fine
you carry on lying and ill carry on pointing it out.......sounds like a fair deal.

Perhaps you can also comment on the lies from the leavers also but this won't happen as you have been brainwashed to believe that junk

pastafarian · Jul 22, 2016

studio150 said:
Perhaps you can also comment on the lies from the leavers also but this won't happen as you have been brainwashed to believe that junk

if leavers came out with junk like people are not going to want to come to this country anymore,leavers just want to get rid of brown people, leavers think Polish people caused the financial crisis and leavers think home grown terrorists will leave if we have stronger borders.... then i would comment

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