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[Sussex] United States of Europe



M

Maldini

Banned
Aug 19, 2015
927
If anyone in the Remain camp does not believe this will happen then they are seriously deluded.

It is only natural that the EU will become more and more integrated.There will be a central goverment and they will make most of the decisions. I honestly cannot fathom the ignorance of those who do not think this will happen.Even that EU bigwig said last week that Brussels meddles too much in things it should not.Over the last X amount of years Brussels has become more and more powerful and is taking over more and more.The more we are integrated the more we can be controlled and blackmailed.
 




M

Maldini

Banned
Aug 19, 2015
927
heathgate said:
Never happen... too many diverse languages and cultural nuances. ..... but that won't stop Merkel pushing for it.

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The things that make the world unique,our own languages,traditions,cultures,foods etc will be slowly eroded as the EU integrates more and more.In 50 years the difference between each EU will be far less than it is today because of integration.We will merge as one under a central goverment and become one large,bland,superstate.
 


heathgate

heathgate

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 13, 2015
3,469
Thank christ I won't be around to see that then...

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W

Weatherman

New member
Jun 10, 2008
323
The future under the EU ?
Orwell's book should have been titled Two Thousand And Forty Four. He gave then too much credit thinking the 'project' would take just 35 years
 




Herr Tubthumper

Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,566
The Fatherland
Maldini said:
The things that make the world unique,our own languages,traditions,cultures,foods etc will be slowly eroded as the EU integrates more and more.In 50 years the difference between each EU will be far less than it is today because of integration.We will merge as one under a central goverment and become one large,bland,superstate.
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The world keeps turning....who'd have thought it eh?
 




GreersElbow

GreersElbow

New member
Jan 5, 2012
4,870
A Northern Outpost
Westdene Seagull said:
Title 4 of TSCG to name but one instrument
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Fiscal convergence is a necessary element of any monetary union, that doesn't signify union. The 4 presidents report wanted a push for deeper economic integration but that has largely been collecting dust and considered wishful thinking.

JC Footy Genius said:
Look forward to reminding you of that quote after the next Treaty is signed ... and the one after that .... and the one after that. :p
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By all means, but none of the treaties so far have suggested fiscal union, only fiscal convergence. They're completely different concepts. Fiscal union would see a centralised budget with transfer payments. Convergence is what it says on the tin, states still retain control of their budgets.
beorhthelm said:
really, this is despite of the leaders of the EU for years saying it is about further integration? are you saying that after decades they've given up on the project. certainly the follow on post suggests there are speedbumps and reasons this is slowing down, but are you saying in a decade or so (assuming it hasnt collapsed) they wont be revisiting the previous roadmap?
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Where on earth have I said they've given up? Come back to me on that.

larus said:
That's the crux of the demise of Europe/Euro. The EURO CANNOT survive long-term unless there is FULL political/fiscal integration. That's a fact which any sensible economist would agree.

Therefore, on the assumption that you would accept the above, this is the polar opposite to the view that there won't be more integration. If there is no more integration, the EURO will eventually collapse. Once it does, then Europe will break apart as a centralised structure. You can't have it both ways now. The political strains in different countries due to the debt crisis are still there are are not going away. Christ, even with all of these creative 'free money' gimmicks of QE they can't kick-start the Eurozone. The level of output from the Eurozone is still below the pre crisis level of 2008. Europe is screwed long-term until they start to reform and regain competitiveness. 40% youth unemployment in southern countries still. Far right parties will eventually take hold more and more.

Note - if the old trading block/single market structure was in place without the EURO, it could survive. The introduction of the EURO totally changed the destination of the project. It is now either eventual collapse or full statehood (as per a US model).
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I was never arguing that the EU/EMU shouldn't deepen integration. The conclusion of my dissertation was that Fiscal Union is the best solution for the crisis it faces. It's plain to see that a mixture of monetary centralisation and fiscal decentralisation doesn't work because of economic imbalances within the union became apparent after systemic shocks (Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian bond yields as an example of shocks).

The problem the EMU has at the moment is that they misdiagnosed the cause of the economic crisis, assuming debt was the problem. Debt is an issue, but not in the context of the crisis, it was a liquidity crisis that threatened depository banks which required central bank emergency liquidity funding to recapitalise. Subsequently, the credit crunch then happens. Which is still largely the problem of the EMU.

Austerity has failed because it contradicts the necessary requirements of recovery, Greece is notoriously unproductive; forcing austerity only stifles productivity. Greece needs a 'New Deal' so to speak and much needed tax reform. If I remember likely, Greece hasn't got an electronic tax collecting system. Hence why its marinas were filled with Yachts and streets with Porsches.
 




beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,310
GreersElbow said:
Where on earth have I said they've given up? Come back to me on that.
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its a question, you infered it when saying anyone thinking the EU is heading for deeper integration is being deluded or not reading the situation. seems the point you are making is that this is true right now while the EU are in holding pattern and wait whether or not the EU can work through the Euro problems. bit unfair to say people are deluded when it is the stated aims of the architects and leaders of the EU.
 




J

jaghebby

Active member
Mar 18, 2013
300
Its interesting to note that one argument put forward by those that support leave is about control of our borders and the level of migration. But they don't say that half those coming to this country are non EU citizens who would more than likely still come anyway! And would we really be able to control our borders for instance the most powerful nation on the planet, the USA, has over 11 million undocumented migrants. So if they can't control their borders will we do any better!
 




GreersElbow

GreersElbow

New member
Jan 5, 2012
4,870
A Northern Outpost
beorhthelm said:
its a question, you infered it when saying anyone thinking the EU is heading for deeper integration is being deluded or not reading the situation. seems the point you are making is that this is true right now while the EU are in holding pattern and wait whether or not the EU can work through the Euro problems. bit unfair to say people are deluded when it is the stated aims of the architects and leaders of the EU.
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It's the stated ambition of Arsenal to win the league, they don't. Having ambition and not achieving it is two different areas. I disagree that my post inferred that they have given up on it. The EU in its current format is an intergovernmental organisation, there has been no 'federalisation' as such since the Treaty of European Union. Yes, leaders such as Merkal have expressed a greater desire for fiscal union, but have not pushed for this since 2013, in fact, Merkel has come out and said it's not going to happen. France once against fiscal union, is in favour of it (under its current Finance Minister), however, the French are growingly anti-Hollande and his allies in government won't be around, it's too uncertain to say that the next lot will be in favour of fiscal union. I doubt it, as the French are notoriously protective about their sovereignty.

Just because the EU isn't heading towards deeper integration, doesn't mean they haven't given up. It is in my view, necessary; but the EU has been functioning almost ad hoc, plastering over flaws or entirely ignoring them. There is no clear direction that it is heading in, but it is certainly not being 'given up on'. The indication is that EU leaders in the core states want it, but the periphery don't.

More so, there may be many more issues regarding deepening integration which would require states to get authorisation from their population. An example of this was the creation of the Outright Monetary Transactions mechanism in 2013, the German Supreme Court believed this to be unconstitutional and challenged it. The German courts have not been particularly fond of deeper integration and that could prove costly for those who have ambitions of deepening.

As such, whilst the ambition is there. There is no indication at all that the EU is moving towards deeper integration let alone a federal state.

jaghebby said:
Its interesting to note that one argument put forward by those that support leave is about control of our borders and the level of migration. But they don't say that half those coming to this country are non EU citizens who would more than likely still come anyway! And would we really be able to control our borders for instance the most powerful nation on the planet, the USA, has over 11 million undocumented migrants. So if they can't control their borders will we do any better!
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I'm not sure you can compare UK borders to that of the U.S given we're an island.

More so, the vast majority of migrants from the EU are economic ones; we needed them due to a skills/labour shortage.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,310
GreersElbow said:
...As such, whilst the ambition is there. There is no indication at all that the EU is moving towards deeper integration let alone a federal state.
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to draw upon the Arsenal analogy :)lolol:), they need to sort out a few areas, get a few key players in, an assistant maybe, or a change of management and they'll be on the way to winning the league. the EU have the simpler issue to resolve the Euro problems, then they'll be on their way to the next level too.
 


GreersElbow

GreersElbow

New member
Jan 5, 2012
4,870
A Northern Outpost
beorhthelm said:
to draw upon the Arsenal analogy :)lolol:), they need to sort out a few areas, get a few key players in, an assistant maybe, or a change of management and they'll be on the way to winning the league. the EU have the simpler issue to resolve the Euro problems, then they'll be on their way to the next level too.
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Merkel is the Arsene Wenger of European Politics, the main issue has been that France and Germany seem to change their mind all the bloody time.

Germany 2011 - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/dec/02/angela-merkel-eurozone-fiscal-union
Germany 2014 - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/01/greece-problems-eurozone-fiscal-policy-germany "Germany will drag its feet on fiscal union"

France 2014 - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/b...o-austerity-budget-defying-eu-rules.html?_r=0
France 2015 - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-calls-for-full-fiscal-union-in-eurozone.html
 


M

Maldini

Banned
Aug 19, 2015
927
Herr Tubthumper said:
The world keeps turning....who'd have thought it eh?
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And in 50 years the main language of the great superstate will of course be German as ordered by our great leader Merkel years earlier.

So Hitler wasn't the only leader of Germany that wanted/wants total domination. It seems to be a thing with that nationality.

Anyway thanks for taking such an interest in my country Herr.
 




JC Footy Genius

JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
GreersElbow said:
By all means, but none of the treaties so far have suggested fiscal union, only fiscal convergence. They're completely different concepts. Fiscal union would see a centralised budget with transfer payments. Convergence is what it says on the tin, states still retain control of their budgets.
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As others have said your broad and sweeping statement didn't appear to be confined to fiscal Union. Deeper integration as in more powers leaving the nation states transferring to EU institutions. As far as I am aware this always happens with every treaty signed, the pace may change but the destination is the same.
 


GreersElbow

GreersElbow

New member
Jan 5, 2012
4,870
A Northern Outpost
JC Footy Genius said:
As others have said your broad and sweeping statement didn't appear to be confined to fiscal Union. Deeper integration as in more powers leaving the nation states transferring to EU institutions. As far as I am aware this always happens with every treaty signed, the pace may change but the destination is the same.
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The ambition within the EU has always been economic integration before political integration, it's only due to underlying pressures that political institutions like the Parliament spilled over. However, I generally refer to economic integration due to my degree and that is of course my fault for being ambiguous, apologies.

However, I still fundamentally believe any transfer of competencies, political, social or economic will be difficult for the EU under current circumstances. We've seen the Schengen area come under scrutiny and that's pivotal in the context of European trade.

Maldini said:
And in 50 years the main language of the great superstate will of course be German as ordered by our great leader Merkel years earlier.

So Hitler wasn't the only leader of Germany that wanted/wants total domination. It seems to be a thing with that nationality.

Anyway thanks for taking such an interest in my country Herr.
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4/10 for the trolling attempt.
 


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