KingstonSeagull
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- Thread starter Pretty pink fairy
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KingstonSeagull
New member
The betting markets currently have it as 67% chance of Remain v 33% chance of Leave. One of you could make a fortune if you follow how certain you are...
I don't bet so it won't be me.
Sussex Nomad
Well-known member
Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
We had to break the whole thing up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
Sir Humphrey
We had to break the whole thing up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
Sir Humphrey
Wrong!
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
- Thread starter
- #28
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
- Thread starter
- #29
I haven't seen anything linking the Sterling's performance to a 60% figure. Genuine question - where have you seen this, can you link to it?
If they're wrong, they're worth looking at for other reasons. 2/1 on a 60% likelihood? Worth filling your boots...
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
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- #33
crookie
Well-known member
I'm guessing what PPF is inferring is that if there really was only a 33% chance of leaving the £ would not have dropped so substantially in the last few weeks. Definitely all to play for, for both sides. In my view the more establishment bodies like the IMF get involved, more likely the vote will be out. People are mightily sick of bankers big business and their organisations. Who knows maybe people will feel like giving an almighty kick up the arse to the Establishment. My brother is going to do this
Sent from my SM-G928F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G928F using Tapatalk
I replied twice so maybe you missed the other one - where is this connection from the financial markets to this 60% you quote? Can you give us a link?
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
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- #37
DONT BE LAZY HAVE A LOOK AROUND POUND/ EURO EXCHANGE RATE PAGES
regards
DR
regards
DR
DONT BE LAZY HAVE A LOOK AROUND POUND/ EURO EXCHANGE RATE PAGES
regards
DR
What?
I can see the exchange rates - I don't see how you get from them to a 60% chance of leaving the EU.
Is that your own calculation - if so show your workings? If not show your link?
Pretty pink fairy
Banned
- Jan 30, 2008
- 31,981
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- #39
I sound like I don't believe you. Which is exactly right.
I can link to some markets that price it at almost precisely a 2/3 chance of Remain: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
If that were wildly wrong then those with the money to gamble on the referundum would be all over it....... which would bring it in line.
You're a pretty good fisherman though - you had me believing you were serious for a while
