First we take London! Labour are 7 points ahead in the Mayoral election polls

Buzzer · May 6, 2016

NooBHA said:
I was more referring to the fact that they had been slaughtered in the press and on TV news over the Anti Semitic row that this could have been a whole lot worse since that row ran right into the very day of the Elections. The Press made sure of that.

Slaughtered? You wait until the general election and the IRA-loving Marxist McDonnell is put under the spotlight. It's a very sad state of affairs that a government that is so unpopular still maintains so much support and almost certainly it's because of the leadership and direction of the Labour Party. This election proves that an increase in membership of the party has no correlation with public support for Corbyn's leadership. If the Labour Party were being led by Cooper or Johnson then they'd be commanding a healthy lead in the polls and would seriously be looking at planning to win the next election.

Gwylan · May 6, 2016

Buzzer said:
If the Labour Party were being led by Cooper or Johnson then they'd be commanding a healthy lead in the polls and would seriously be looking at planning to win the next election.

Johnson yes - he constantly polls well but he didn't want to stand so it's irrelevant, however, there's no massive support for Cooper. The last opinion poll before the leadership election had her with the support of 13% of the electorate. Corbyn only polled 26%, which is not great, but twice Cooper's support.

I've said it before but I'm convinced there's no real intention to win the next GE. Whoever the leader was, it would require the biggest swing in British electoral history to win and with Labour's real problems in Scotland (which have little to do with Corbyn) and the projected boundary changes, they'd have no chance.

Corbyn's big plan is to push through more power to the ordinary members so there's less disconnect between politicians and electorate. It's a bold idea but he needs to attract more people other than students and old lefties from the 70s to the party. He needs to find a way to bring the skilled working class to it and, especially, the people who are at the bottom of the pile. I can't see much sign of him doing it but I'm not sure many other Labour politicians would do much better

Mellor 3 Ward 4 · May 6, 2016

ROSM said:
Sadly not poor enough for anybody to listen and understand enough to make a move against him

Exactly, and that's the problem.

The longer it takes to replace Corbyn, the less chance Labour have of winning in 2020

With the Tories in disarray, there's an open goal for the Labour Party, but they have politics equivalent of Ronnie Rosenthal playing up front.

Ernest · May 6, 2016

Every single financial goal or target failed ! Junior doctors on all out strike for the first time in NHS history ! Teachers voting for strike action ! The biggest and cheapest sell off of public and state assets in our history ! The collapse of the steel industry ! The worst trade deficit since records began ! Parents now keeping children out of school in protest ! A near doubling of the national debt ! Worst cuts to public services since WW2 ! Councils from some of the most deprived areas forced to beg for funds ! Most officially recorded U turns of any british government ! Some of the worst poverty records for the /Elderly/Adults /Children/ since before the 1950s ! Some of the cruelest cuts to the disabled community ever devised ! Countless deaths directly linked by the fit to work regime as recorded by different coroners all over the country ! The lowest wages growth since records began ! A Prime minister who admitted to tax avoidance after lying about it ! The highest records of homelessness in modern times ! The highest amount of food poverty and usage of food banks in modern times ! The highest amount of winter deaths for over forty years ! Hospitals suffering the worst cuts and closures and under staffing since the NHS was formed. The most hospitals put in special measures since records began ! Housing market out of reach for over 43% of the population and dominated by rich buy to let landlords ! A bedroom tax just for the poor ! The gradual disappearance of women’s refuge centres for domestic violence victims ! The largest sell off of public housing stock in thirty years ! The loss of nearly every bed used for mental health crises ! Mobility cars and electric wheelchairs removed from nearly a hundred registered disbled people each week because of cuts !
And still the country will not punish the greedy Tories ! and we laugh at the thought of Donald Trump being president !
We should take a look at what we keep voting for !

Mellor 3 Ward 4 · May 6, 2016

Ernest said:
Every single financial goal or target failed ! Junior doctors on all out strike for the first time in NHS history ! Teachers voting for strike action ! The biggest and cheapest sell off of public and state assets in our history ! The collapse of the steel industry ! The worst trade deficit since records began ! Parents now keeping children out of school in protest ! A near doubling of the national debt ! Worst cuts to public services since WW2 ! Councils from some of the most deprived areas forced to beg for funds ! Most officially recorded U turns of any british government ! Some of the worst poverty records for the /Elderly/Adults /Children/ since before the 1950s ! Some of the cruelest cuts to the disabled community ever devised ! Countless deaths directly linked by the fit to work regime as recorded by different coroners all over the country ! The lowest wages growth since records began ! A Prime minister who admitted to tax avoidance after lying about it ! The highest records of homelessness in modern times ! The highest amount of food poverty and usage of food banks in modern times ! The highest amount of winter deaths for over forty years ! Hospitals suffering the worst cuts and closures and under staffing since the NHS was formed. The most hospitals put in special measures since records began ! Housing market out of reach for over 43% of the population and dominated by rich buy to let landlords ! A bedroom tax just for the poor ! The gradual disappearance of women’s refuge centres for domestic violence victims ! The largest sell off of public housing stock in thirty years ! The loss of nearly every bed used for mental health crises ! Mobility cars and electric wheelchairs removed from nearly a hundred registered disbled people each week because of cuts !
And still the country will not punish the greedy Tories ! and we laugh at the thought of Donald Trump being president !
We should take a look at what we keep voting for !

So why aren't Labour 15-20% ahead in the polls?

I repeat, wrong leader.

glasfryn · May 6, 2016

Gwylan said:
Johnson yes - he constantly polls well but he didn't want to stand so it's irrelevant, however, there's no massive support for Cooper. The last opinion poll before the leadership election had her with the support of 13% of the electorate. Corbyn only polled 26%, which is not great, but twice Cooper's support.

I've said it before but I'm convinced there's no real intention to win the next GE. Whoever the leader was, it would require the biggest swing in British electoral history to win and with Labour's real problems in Scotland (which have little to do with Corbyn) and the projected boundary changes, they'd have no chance.

Corbyn's big plan is to push through more power to the ordinary members so there's less disconnect between politicians and electorate. It's a bold idea but he needs to attract more people other than students and old lefties from the 70s to the party. He needs to find a way to bring the skilled working class to it and, especially, the people who are at the bottom of the pile. I can't see much sign of him doing it but I'm not sure many other Labour politicians would do much better

nailed and absolutely spot-on
I have always said Corbyn will lay the way the party will go and then hand over to someone else Hmmmm! but who?
someone will appear from the mire/pack, and I am afraid those who are at the moment in the party who are battling against him will dissolve and support a more centre-left leader.
it always makes me laugh Corbyn quiet,calm,and walks around with that wry smile
cameron red faced shouting and running around hither dither to no avail
Oh and Scotland is still in the hands of national socialists ..........hardly a right -wing hotbed

Buzzer · May 6, 2016

Gwylan said:
Johnson yes - he constantly polls well but he didn't want to stand so it's irrelevant, however, there's no massive support for Cooper. The last opinion poll before the leadership election had her with the support of 13% of the electorate. Corbyn only polled 26%, which is not great, but twice Cooper's support.

I've said it before but I'm convinced there's no real intention to win the next GE. Whoever the leader was, it would require the biggest swing in British electoral history to win and with Labour's real problems in Scotland (which have little to do with Corbyn) and the projected boundary changes, they'd have no chance.

Corbyn's big plan is to push through more power to the ordinary members so there's less disconnect between politicians and electorate. It's a bold idea but he needs to attract more people other than students and old lefties from the 70s to the party. He needs to find a way to bring the skilled working class to it and, especially, the people who are at the bottom of the pile. I can't see much sign of him doing it but I'm not sure many other Labour politicians would do much better

I think you're right about no great desire to win the next GE but in order to win the one after that then they need to eat away at the massive swing that is needed esp in light of Scotland. There's no chance at all that Corbyn will make any inroads into this and if that's the case then it means the chances of winning in 2025 are pretty remote too unless Scotland rejects the SNP and returns to Labour.

I'm of the opinion that Cooper suffered from two drawbacks at the last leadership election the first being that Balls is her husband and the association with failure but more importantly, the Corbynistas shouted so loudly that Kendall and Cooper were ultra-Blairites that the mud stuck and they were rejected without any serious analysis. It's clear from the council elections and poll after poll that the British public is very out of kilter with the mood of the Labour Party rank and file. They may hold sway in the party but Corbynistas are a noisy but insignificant proportion of the British electorate, the problem is that they can't and won't see it. The Parliamentary Party have known this all along and it's no surprise that Cooper and Johnson were the favourites to succeed Milliband, they know who can sell the Labour message to the British public.

In some ways though, Corbyn's leadership will be good for the Labour Party in the long run. When he fails, the Labour Party can purge itself of these conspiracy theorists, extremists, useful idiots, fellow travellers and be a proper left of centre party again. As you say though, the longer this goes on, the further Labour are from where they want to be.

JC Footy Genius · May 6, 2016

Ernest said:
.....
We should take a look at what we keep voting for !

Agreed, 'we' being all those who voted Corbyn in and continue to support him. They should take a long hard look at themselves. Remember to vote for a credible candidate next time (July ish). :thumbsup:

Chicken Run · May 6, 2016

Ernest said:
Every single financial goal or target failed ! Junior doctors on all out strike for the first time in NHS history ! Teachers voting for strike action ! The biggest and cheapest sell off of public and state assets in our history ! The collapse of the steel industry ! The worst trade deficit since records began ! Parents now keeping children out of school in protest ! A near doubling of the national debt ! Worst cuts to public services since WW2 ! Councils from some of the most deprived areas forced to beg for funds ! Most officially recorded U turns of any british government ! Some of the worst poverty records for the /Elderly/Adults /Children/ since before the 1950s ! Some of the cruelest cuts to the disabled community ever devised ! Countless deaths directly linked by the fit to work regime as recorded by different coroners all over the country ! The lowest wages growth since records began ! A Prime minister who admitted to tax avoidance after lying about it ! The highest records of homelessness in modern times ! The highest amount of food poverty and usage of food banks in modern times ! The highest amount of winter deaths for over forty years ! Hospitals suffering the worst cuts and closures and under staffing since the NHS was formed. The most hospitals put in special measures since records began ! Housing market out of reach for over 43% of the population and dominated by rich buy to let landlords ! A bedroom tax just for the poor ! The gradual disappearance of women’s refuge centres for domestic violence victims ! The largest sell off of public housing stock in thirty years ! The loss of nearly every bed used for mental health crises ! Mobility cars and electric wheelchairs removed from nearly a hundred registered disbled people each week because of cuts !
And still the country will not punish the greedy Tories ! and we laugh at the thought of Donald Trump being president !
We should take a look at what we keep voting for !

Where did you copy that from?

Bozza · May 6, 2016

Mellor 3 Ward 4 said:
Exactly, and that's the problem.

The longer it takes to replace Corbyn, the less chance Labour have of winning in 2020

With the Tories in disarray, there's an open goal for the Labour Party, but they have politics equivalent of Ronnie Rosenthal playing up front.

I was mulling on this earlier.

Is it really in the interests of the Tories to full-on attack Corbyn? If he's not electable, and surely he isn't, would it be better for the Tories to give him a soft ride in the hope that he's not knifed by his own before 2020, and the Tories get a free pass for another five years?

If the Tories really do go after Corbyn he could be replaced by someone eminently more electable. In fact, almost regardless of who replaces Corbyn, there could be large swathes of the electorate who may think "They've finally got rid of Corbyn, I can now vote Labour again"...

Ernest · May 6, 2016

If the Tory Election Expenses fraud results in 10 + by elections Cameron will be OUT on his ear whatever happens in the Euro referendum and who knows what will happen then ?

spring hall convert · May 6, 2016

I see Ken Livingstone's forgotten to take his medication again.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-great-catastrophe-tv-interview-a7016156.html

Buzzer · May 6, 2016

glasfryn said:
it always makes me laugh Corbyn quiet,calm,and walks around with that wry smile
cameron red faced shouting and running around hither dither to no avail

So far, Cameron has had no need to do any shouting. Despite being the leader of a mess of a party and a deeply unpopular one at that, the only threat to his leadership comes from within. Labour offer no credible opposition so I'd say that it's about time Corbyn started getting angry - it might just be the thing to stop the Tories from winning again...and again.

glasfryn said:
I am afraid those who are at the moment in the party who are battling against him will dissolve and support a more centre-left leader.

When Corbyn fails then the Labour Party will be pushed back towards the centre ground and away from the hard(ish) left it's currently trying to occupy. Those who are battling against him will win because Corbyn will get beaten badly at the General Election. If the Corbynistas try to gerrymander the next leadership election then it might just split the party in two.

glasfryn said:
Oh and Scotland is still in the hands of national socialists ..........hardly a right -wing hotbed

I think you mean nationalist socialists...but they have shown no inclination to rejoin the Labour Party under Corbyn. Labour need to win Scotland back to govern the UK. Scotland may be left-wing but they aren't Labour left-wing. This is a big problem for them, I'm not sure how you can dress it otherwise.

nicko31 · May 6, 2016

Bozza said:
I was mulling on this earlier.

Is it really in the interests of the Tories to full-on attack Corbyn? If he's not electable, and surely he isn't, would it be better for the Tories to give him a soft ride in the hope that he's not knifed by his own before 2020, and the Tories get a free pass for another five years?

If the Tories really do go after Corbyn he could be replaced by someone eminently more electable. In fact, almost regardless of who replaces Corbyn, there could be large swathes of the electorate who may think "They've finally got rid of Corbyn, I can now vote Labour again"...

Think you are right. The Tories can't believe their luck getting JC in opposition. Odds of him winning are pretty similar to Trump beating Hilary..

Stato · May 6, 2016

Bozza said:
I was mulling on this earlier.

Is it really in the interests of the Tories to full-on attack Corbyn? If he's not electable, and surely he isn't, would it be better for the Tories to give him a soft ride in the hope that he's not knifed by his own before 2020, and the Tories get a free pass for another five years?

If the Tories really do go after Corbyn he could be replaced by someone eminently more electable. In fact, almost regardless of who replaces Corbyn, there could be large swathes of the electorate who may think "They've finally got rid of Corbyn, I can now vote Labour again"...

Although this is a fair point, to take advantage would require long term planning by the Conservative's strategists. Lynton Crosby's approach doesn't seem to have room for this kind of subtlety and, even if it had, the big beasts are probably more distracted by knifing each other over Europe and then searching through the corpses for a successor to Cameron.

Personal disagreements and ambitions mean that the Tory leadership are no geniuses when it comes to tactics. They are just very fortunate that they currently seem to be playing Aston Villa every week.

glasfryn · May 6, 2016

Buzzer said:
So far, Cameron has had no need to do any shouting. Despite being the leader of a mess of a party and a deeply unpopular one at that, the only threat to his leadership comes from within. Labour offer no credible opposition so I'd say that it's about time Corbyn started getting angry - it might just be the thing to stop the Tories from winning again...and again.

you obviously do not watch PMQ's he goes red then purple twisting to his own benches and trying to convince his own people he is right.

When Corbyn fails then the Labour Party will be pushed back towards the centre ground and away from the hard(ish) left it's currently trying to occupy. Those who are battling against him will win because Corbyn will get beaten badly at the General Election. If the Corbynistas try to gerrymander the next leadership election then it might just split the party in two.
Corbyn will not be leading the Labour party at the next election, unless it comes early, the tories **** up or you know something we don't

I think you mean nationalist socialists...but they have shown no inclination to rejoin the Labour Party under Corbyn. Labour need to win Scotland back to govern the UK. Scotland may be left-wing but they aren't Labour left-wing. This is a big problem for them, I'm not sure how you can dress it otherwise.

whatever they are still socialists .........................and hate the tories with even more passion than I do, and lets hope they don't decide to do a runner when/and if we leave the EU

scamander · May 6, 2016

Cameron and pals desperately want Corbyn to remain in, politically I'm neutral but it's laughable that Cameron could eat a baby live at PMQs and most of the press would ignore it and simply roll out a piece about Labour infighting/extremism.

The Tory nightmare is Corbyn to go with 18-24 months left before a GE and someone more centre of party to come in. I know Jarvis has his critics but sadly we live in the age of the media, they don't have the dossier on him that they do other politicians. He'd be very hard for the Tory press to throw mud at. Our political system has gone the way of the US, it's about personas now, less so policies.

Gwylan · May 6, 2016

Buzzer said:
I think you're right about no great desire to win the next GE but in order to win the one after that then they need to eat away at the massive swing that is needed esp in light of Scotland. There's no chance at all that Corbyn will make any inroads into this and if that's the case then it means the chances of winning in 2025 are pretty remote too unless Scotland rejects the SNP and returns to Labour.

I don't disagree with this but Scotland is a special case and has little to do with Corbyn. I certainly don't believe that Johnson or Cooper would make any difference to Labour's vote - in fact, I suggest they make things worse. In a way, however, it's irrelevant as 95% of the time the SNP would side with Labour. No, Labour won't win a majority but they could govern with SNP support.

On the flip side of this, I wonder whether the Conservatives could be going down the same road with London. They're not there yet but there appears to be a big swing to Labour in the mayoral election, which continues what happened at the GE. It could of course swing back but I don't think the Tory campaign was the appealing to the diverse London electorate

the Corbynistas shouted so loudly that Kendall and Cooper were ultra-Blairites that the mud stuck and they were rejected without any serious analysis.

I don't agree with this: the mud stuck because they are ultra-Blairites. I don't think there was great enthusiasm for Corbyn in the party. As events have shown, he's not a natural leader, but there was enthusiasm for someone who was different. Burnham, Cooper and Kendall all took pretty much the same position on policies and all had a near identical background. It's noticeable that Johnson is by far the most popular Labour figure -despite his politics being little different from the other three - and I put this down to the fact that he's clearly had a life outside the world of PPE and policy wonkdom.

glasfryn · May 6, 2016

Mellor 3 Ward 4 said:
So why aren't Labour 15-20% ahead in the polls?

I repeat, wrong leader.

tory33%
Labour34%

one point ahead
slowly slowly does it
it does take some time to sink in

beorhthelm · May 6, 2016

glasfryn said:
tory33%
Labour34%

one point ahead
slowly slowly does it
it does take some time to sink in

which is about where we were a year ago. and i read Miliband's Labour was around 38% at the time these elections were last contested. it'll sink in eventually, but by that time it'll probably be too close to an election for Labour to change course.

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First we take London! Labour are 7 points ahead in the Mayoral election polls

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