Oldham West by election: Result Special...

Simster · Dec 4, 2015

Gwylan said:
As he's already said he's quitting before the next election so that's scarcely sticking your neck out.

What no-one has mentioned is the shocking performance by Lib Dems. They're traditionally strong in by-elections and it's a geographic region they've historically done well. It was only five years ago they were hitting 8,000 in a GE. To collapse to 1000 votes is an indicator that there's really no way back for the usual party of protest

Yes, I was going to mention this. I suspect the Lib Dems will be stronger in by-elections where they have historically had a bit of clout. In Oldham though, they are not a credible alternative to Labour who have the feel of a proper protest party at the moment.

Deleted member 22389 · Dec 4, 2015

Nibble said:
Now you sound like Farage. I'm no fan of labour, but a vote is a vote, implying postal votes are somehow inferior positively reeks of sour grapes.

Postal votes should be used for people who can't get to the polling station, so are they saying 7,000 people couldn't make it, its an awful lot of people. Sounds like to me or thou not illegal people have not used the postal system vote system as it was intended, that's what my issue is here. Sour grapes on my part yes, I don't admitting that, I like UKIP and I feel if the system was used as it was intended I think these results would very different.

dazzer6666 · Dec 4, 2015

Simster said:
I won't disagree with your assertion that Cameron is a terrible Prime Minister, but do you really believe the weak U-turns are what makes this government unelectable? I think you'll find this bombing campaign and their general economic cluelessness are what will do for them in the end - providing Labour bring in a moderate, media savvy front bench.

Poor result for DC but not entirely unsurprising in a safe seat at this point....are you suggesting though we need some Labour economic competence? Didn't work out too well last time.....

Gwylan · Dec 4, 2015

Nibble said:
I believe he said he wouldn't continue leadership if they won again. Besides that I meant I think there's a strong possibility he will render the Tories unelectable and be ousted from power by careerist party members long before the next GE

No chance. He's going to go after the referendum so, probably the summer of 2017. That would enable the Tories to elect a new leader in the autumn giving him/her 18 months to get settled. It's quite hard to unseat a PM mid-term - the only one I can think this happening to was Thatcher - and why would they bother when he's going anyway?

Nibble · Dec 4, 2015

bashlsdir said:
Postal votes should be used for people who can't get to the polling station, so are they saying 7,000 people couldn't make it, its an awful lot of people. Sounds like to me or thou not illegal people have not used the postal system vote system as it was intended, that's what my issue is here. Sour grapes on my part yes, I don't admitting that, I like UKIP and I feel if the system was used as it was intended I think these results would very different.

Bahahahhaha. Priceless. Bloody priceless (once I'd deciphered your terrible English).

vegster · Dec 4, 2015

Nibble said:
A small but significant result and probably showing the first recorded decline for the Tories even though we know public opinion has waned massively due to a brace of weak U Turns, broken promises and now a war that he can't explain and nobody wants. In four more years they are going to unelectable. s I'd be surprised if DC wastill leader by then too.

He already stated his intention to quit politics at the end of this term. Then we get Dead-Eyes Osborne, heaven help us.

Simster · Dec 4, 2015

dazzer6666 said:
Poor result for DC but not entirely unsurprising in a safe seat at this point....are you suggesting though we need some Labour economic competence? Didn't work out too well last time.....

Yes it did - Labour ran the country competently for 13 years before failing to convince the electorate they were properly in control of the purse strings. And let's be clear about this, the Tories have done absolutely NOTHING to turn round the issue they were originally elected to resolve - apparently public borrowing was out of control.

Nibble · Dec 4, 2015

vegster said:
He already stated his intention to quit politics and the end of this term. Then we get Dead-Eyes Osborne, heaven help us.

Not talking about him having a choice.

spring hall convert · Dec 4, 2015

Bry Nylon said:
Is that REALLY Jeremy Corbyn's brother on This Week...?

Bloody hell, Jezza's the normal one...

I saw that. I though it was hilarious that the BBC previously had a policy not to encourage debate on climate change. As soon as they change that policy they dig up Corbyn's brother!

spring hall convert · Dec 4, 2015

Pavilionaire said:
3 voters in 5 couldn't be arsed. An indictment of Labour, or UK politics in general?

By-elections have much lower turn outs, especially in winter when it's tougher to get people out to vote in the dark. Not sure how it compares to similar scenarios though.

Gwylan · Dec 4, 2015

Simster said:
Yes, I was going to mention this. I suspect the Lib Dems will be stronger in by-elections where they have historically had a bit of clout. In Oldham though, they are not a credible alternative to Labour who have the feel of a proper protest party at the moment.

It's not the perfect seat for them but even so, they've been strong in neighbouring constituencies and a time when the government is not popular, you'd expect the LDs to mop up a few votes - that's what they're normally good at doing. Of course, UKIP are a big protest party but are there really lots of people who waver between anti-EU UKIP and pro-EU LDs?

vegster · Dec 4, 2015

Still at least this result will keep Bozza,our own Baron Greenback, off the boards until tonight's Drinking Thread... and he won't be on the Champagne.

DavidinSouthampton · Dec 4, 2015

beorhthelm said:
its not a bad result, lets be fair though it was an expected win for Labour and little to get excited about. its a 1-0 at home. the elation is indication of shear relief that it didn't go badly.

In the last few days there had been predictions of a UKIP victory, set against which labour actually increased their share of the vote. That, in anybody's books, has got to be a good result..... and I am not a Corbyn fan, so despite being left-leaning would have quite liked a dip in Labour fortunes in order to increase the pressure for change..

Igzilla · Dec 4, 2015

Gwylan said:
As he's already said he's quitting before the next election so that's scarcely sticking your neck out.

What no-one has mentioned is the shocking performance by Lib Dems. They're traditionally strong in by-elections and it's a geographic region they've historically done well. It was only five years ago they were hitting 8,000 in a GE. To collapse to 1000 votes is an indicator that there's really no way back for the usual party of protest

I think this is the saddest part as it weakens our democracy and underlines the tendency of FPTP systems to evolve towards a two party state. Saying that, the Lib Dems have been totally anonymous since the GE, though this is probably due to the massive drop in funding due to their MP count.

Soulman · Dec 4, 2015

bashlsdir said:
Postal votes should be used for people who can't get to the polling station, so are they saying 7,000 people couldn't make it, its an awful lot of people. Sounds like to me or thou not illegal people have not used the postal system vote system as it was intended, that's what my issue is here. Sour grapes on my part yes, I don't admitting that, I like UKIP and I feel if the system was used as it was intended I think these results would very different.

7,000 is a lot of postal votes in a constituency this size, i would wager that the vast vast majority were votes for Labour, sounds a bit dodgy to me. Still at least help can be given on the best place to put the cross.

BigGully · Dec 4, 2015

Serious question, how does a postal vote work, what are the criteria for you to qualify to do so ...... ??

Igzilla · Dec 4, 2015

Soulman said:
7,000 is a lot of postal votes in a constituency this size, i would wager that the vast vast majority were votes for Labour, sounds a bit dodgy to me. Still at least help can be given on the best place to put the cross.

It's funny how these things come around. Didn't the SNP claim something similar at the referendum, but both CON and LAB laughed at the very idea?

Nibble · Dec 4, 2015

Soulman said:
7,000 is a lot of postal votes in a constituency this size, i would wager that the vast vast majority were votes for Labour, sounds a bit dodgy to me. Still at least help can be given on the best place to put the cross.

So, just for the record , you are asserting the election was fixed?

Flex Your Head · Dec 4, 2015

To all those saying it's not a good result for Labour, it is, it really is. I recall reading on here that people should 'go large' when betting on a UKIP win, and many were expecting Labour to finish second.

This short article seems to sum it up pretty well:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

Cue the usual Mail and Telegraph readers claiming that the BBC is a Marxist institution and it needs to be destroyed

)

Igzilla · Dec 4, 2015

Flex Your Head said:
To all those saying it's not a good result for Labour, it is, it really is. I recall reading on here that people should 'go large' when betting on a UKIP win, and many were expecting Labour to finish second.

This short article seems to sum it up pretty well:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35003373

Queue the usual Mail and Telegraph readers claiming that the BBC is a Marxist institution and it needs to be destroyed )

I'm looking forward to see how Laura Kuenssberg spins this one :lolol:

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Oldham West by election: Result Special...

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