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albionalex · May 5, 2015

Ernest said:
Had Real Madrid at 6/1 in play, could have cashed out for £93 but let it ride so just got my £50 back

Snap.

Zebedee · May 5, 2015

Have you had your refund already?

Tarpon · May 5, 2015

£50 at 28/1 on Real to win first half when one down. James Rodríguez owes me a pint (or two) :facepalm:

knocky1 · May 6, 2015

I lost £2.32 but get that back tonight plus a big return on a yet chosen Bayern next scorer or next score a header.

Next goal being a penalty was 16/1 in live betting yesterday.

Alan Cundle · May 6, 2015

I had draw at half time for evens. Nice little earner! Same tonight methinks

Oscar · May 6, 2015

The in-play draw didn't quite come off but all ready for another go tonight. Very tempted to go with over 1.5 goals as a pre-match bet though as surely Barca and Bayern isn't going to be a cagey affair.

Nathan · May 6, 2015

Have gone for £50 on over 0.5 goals at 1/25, returns £52, and also have £4 on 0-0 at 12/1, returns £52. Yes either way I will be £2 down, but then have the chance to win big with the free £50 bet.

Simster · May 6, 2015

Oscar said:
The in-play draw didn't quite come off but all ready for another go tonight. Very tempted to go with over 1.5 goals as a pre-match bet though as surely Barca and Bayern isn't going to be a cagey affair.

Assuming you do >1.5 goals and an in-play draw, I think that is risky. The problem with that is that if it ends up 1-0* to either team, you've lost £50. If that is a risk worth taking, then why not go with over 2.5 goals instead? You'll get better odds, and the 1-1 is covered by your in-play draw (as well as the 0-0).

*1-0 is the most common scoreline in Champions League football since 1992:
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles...Publications/01/88/50/85/1885085_DOWNLOAD.pdf

Chinman3000 · May 6, 2015

Simster said:
Assuming you do >1.5 goals and an in-play draw, I think that is risky. The problem with that is that if it ends up 1-0* to either team, you've lost £50. If that is a risk worth taking, then why not go with over 2.5 goals instead? You'll get better odds, and the 1-1 is covered by your in-play draw (as well as the 0-0).

*1-0 is the most common scoreline in Champions League football since 1992:
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles...Publications/01/88/50/85/1885085_DOWNLOAD.pdf

This actually works out a better deal even if you want to be cautious and cover the 1-0's off evither way with another bookies.

1-0 Barca s 8/1 & 0-1 Bayern is 15/1. Therefore £6.50 & £3.50 retrospectivly will cover your £50, then put the £50 on over 2.5 which gives you £90 return. Take off the £10 spent covering the one nils and you are still £30 better off this way.

Unless I am missing something?

MattBackHome · May 6, 2015

I was on the in play (HT) Madrid win as well.

So no joy there but looking forward to making a monkey of some Bet365 chumps tonight. Actually watching the match will help*

*No it won't.

knocky1 · May 6, 2015

MattBackHome said:
I was on the in play (HT) Madrid win as well.

So no joy there but looking forward to making a monkey of some Bet365 chumps tonight. Actually watching the match will help*

*No it won't.

Nice one. Odds of 9-1 plus your money back will make you a monkey, me old son. Risk free, too.

reigate · May 6, 2015

Has everyone who did the > 0.5 goals pre match and then draw in play had the refund? I went down another route last night to gaurantee (by also using another bookie) a profit on any result, but every time I have done the above bet the draw has come in so I have never tested it. Just worried they will catch up with the guaranteeing a profit.

I once had a problem with a £2,000 bonus Bet 365 offered so want to stay on the right side of thern!

Simster · May 6, 2015

Chinman3000 said:
This actually works out a better deal even if you want to be cautious and cover the 1-0's off evither way with another bookies.

1-0 Barca s 8/1 & 0-1 Bayern is 15/1. Therefore £6.50 & £3.50 retrospectivly will cover your £50, then put the £50 on over 2.5 which gives you £90 return. Take off the £10 spent covering the one nils and you are still £30 better off this way.

Unless I am missing something?

I've done the analysis here, and I think we've nailed this between us:

With the >0.5 goals / in-play draw bet, you don't really win unless it's a draw.
With the >2.5 goals / hedge / in-play draw bet, you win every way, unless it finishes 1-0 to either team.

And either way, you can't actually lose.

ArfurW8 · May 6, 2015

On the Betfair exchange 1=0 is 8-1, 0-0 is 13/1 and 0-1 is 17.5/1.
Maybe over 1.5 or 2.5 goals could be the option for the first bet.

Simster · May 6, 2015

ArfurW8 said:
On the Betfair exchange 1=0 is 8=1, 0-0 is 13/1 and 0-1 is 17.5/1.
Maybe over 1.5 or 2.5 goals could be the option for the first bet.

I don't see the point of doing >1.5 + in-play draw, as it doesn't cover 1-0 or 0-1 - same problem as >2.5 goals, except the odds are worse.

So the only reason to do >1.5 is if you believe it'll be 1-1, but then surely you probably wouldn't do these two markets anyway.

Chinman3000 · May 6, 2015

Simster said:
I've done the analysis here, and I think we've nailed this between us:

View attachment 65169

With the >0.5 goals / in-play draw bet, you don't really win unless it's a draw.
With the >2.5 goals / hedge / in-play draw bet, you win every way, unless it finishes 1-0 to either team.

And either way, you can't actually lose.

Yep this is what I'll be doing- great spreadsheet. Could even afford to put a little more on the one nil's to balance it better....

ArfurW8 · May 6, 2015

Simster said:
I don't see the point of doing >1.5 + in-play draw, as it doesn't cover 1-0 or 0-1 - same problem as >2.5 goals, except the odds are worse.

So the only reason to do >1.5 is if you believe it'll be 1-1, but then surely you probably wouldn't do these two markets anyway.

I see what you mean, I am leaning towards over 2.5, covering 0-0,0-1, and 1-0 on the exchange then backing the draw in play.

Simster · May 6, 2015

Chinman3000 said:
Yep this is what I'll be doing- great spreadsheet. Could even afford to put a little more on the one nil's to balance it better....

I'll update it and re-post with latest odds (>2.5 have tightened to 3/4, Betfair exchange odds on both 1-0 have drifted), and make it a little more balanced.

8ace · May 6, 2015

Simster said:
I'll update it and re-post with latest odds (>2.5 have tightened to 3/4, Betfair exchange odds on both 1-0 have drifted), and make it a little more balanced.

Don't forget the commission!

ArfurW8 · May 6, 2015

Simster said:
I'll update it and re-post with latest odds (>2.5 have tightened to 3/4, Betfair exchange odds on both 1-0 have drifted), and make it a little more balanced.

Good work.

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