General Election 2015

Vegas Seagull · Mar 25, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
Pollsters factor in historic data, it's part of the job. Ashcroft certainly does as he's explained his methods.

They don't all factor in previous votes for don't knows and those that do, do so in different ways.
They also account for no shows differently ie there are more Labour that say they are Labour but then admit they don't vote so could/should be discounted

Vegas Seagull · Mar 25, 2015

Machiavelli said:
1992 was the last time this happened. There is the notion of 'silent Tories' -- those that think Tory, espouse Tory policies, yet stubbornly refuse to say that they are a Tory, or will vote for them -- but that has been factored out of the polls.
Since 1992, the pollsters have been remarkably accurate. At the last election the exit poll got the number of seats of the three leading parties spot on.

No it hasn't

An exit poll is not an 'opinion' poll

melias shoes · Mar 25, 2015

granny weatherwax said:
I am no fan of camer..n, but he made milliband look a right **** on PMQs this lunchtime.

He certainly did. Some would say he ripped him a new ********.

Soulman · Mar 25, 2015

Lest We Forget........

Blair aide: ‘We screwed up on immigration – 13,000 migrants became ONE MILLION’
ONE of the biggest mass immigrations in the history of the British Isles was solely down to a Blair government cock-up, a senior aide to the former prime minister has conceded.
The Blair government ASSURED voters the number of new arrivals from eastern Europe would be around 13,000.

"We simply didn’t take account properly of the pull factor of England for people with skills

Sir Stephen Wall, a former chief adviser on Europe"
It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant impact on wages and the health service.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-screwed-immigration-13000-became-ONE-MILLION

Sir Stephen Wall, who was Mr Blair’s most senior EU adviser between 2000 and 2004, said: ‘We simply didn’t take account properly of the pull factor of England for people with skills who could probably find a bigger market [in the UK] for their skills - you know, the Polish plumber.’

In comments which will pose a huge headache for Ed Miliband, Sir Stephen also admitted the decision to throw open Britain’s borders at a time when other countries were imposing transitional controls was ‘political’.

No shit Sherlock :facepalm:

Vegas Seagull · Mar 25, 2015

granny weatherwax said:
I am no fan of cameron, but he made milliband look a right **** on PMQs this lunchtime.

He also heaped praise on Brighton Kemptown MP Simon Kirby for being a 'real champion of Brighton' claimants down 52% since last election, long term youth claimants down 50% since last election and Simon helped secure £480m in the Royal Sussex concluding 'the Sun will continue to shine on Brighton'

Downlander · Mar 25, 2015

granny weatherwax said:
I am no fan of cameron, but he made milliband look a right **** on PMQs this lunchtime.

Next time you see Milliband in the Commons he will be Prime Minister? Scary isn't it?

Dandyman · Mar 25, 2015

Soulman said:
Lest We Forget........

Blair aide: ‘We screwed up on immigration – 13,000 migrants became ONE MILLION’
ONE of the biggest mass immigrations in the history of the British Isles was solely down to a Blair government cock-up, a senior aide to the former prime minister has conceded.
The Blair government ASSURED voters the number of new arrivals from eastern Europe would be around 13,000.

"We simply didn’t take account properly of the pull factor of England for people with skills

Sir Stephen Wall, a former chief adviser on Europe"
It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant impact on wages and the health service.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...-screwed-immigration-13000-became-ONE-MILLION

Sir Stephen Wall, who was Mr Blair’s most senior EU adviser between 2000 and 2004, said: ‘We simply didn’t take account properly of the pull factor of England for people with skills who could probably find a bigger market [in the UK] for their skills - you know, the Polish plumber.’

In comments which will pose a huge headache for Ed Miliband, Sir Stephen also admitted the decision to throw open Britain’s borders at a time when other countries were imposing transitional controls was ‘political’.

No shit Sherlock

Migrants from the 2004 EU countries have made a net gain to the British economy of £5bn according to UCL. Also anyone who does not think Polish women are a boon to the country is obviously a long term resident of Kemp Town.

Soulman · Mar 25, 2015

Dandyman said:
Migrants from the 2004 EU countries have made a net gain to the British economy of £5bn according to UCL. Also anyone who does not think Polish women are a boon to the country is obviously a long term resident of Kemp Town.

Obviously you missed the bits, STATED by those that were aides and fellow MP's AT the time.
Again for you.
"Sir Stephen Wall, a former chief adviser on Europe"
It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant IMPACT on WAGES and the HEALTH SERVICE."

Sir Stephen also admitted the decision to throw open Britain’s borders at a time when other countries were imposing transitional controls was ‘POLITICAL".

Dandyman · Mar 25, 2015

Soulman said:
Obviously you missed the bits, STATED by those that were aides and fellow MP's AT the time.
Again for you.
"Sir Stephen Wall, a former chief adviser on Europe"
It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant IMPACT on WAGES and the HEALTH SERVICE."

Sir Stephen also admitted the decision to throw open Britain’s borders at a time when other countries were imposing transitional controls was ‘POLITICAL".

There is in fact little evidence of a negative impact on wages from EU migration. The key issue has been the financial crisis caused by the Banking sector and the usual impact of an economic downturn and increased unemployment.

Soulman · Mar 25, 2015

Dandyman said:
There is in fact little evidence of a negative impact on wages from EU migration. The key issue has been the financial crisis caused by the Banking sector and the usual impact of an economic downturn and increased unemployment.

Ok, if you want to ignore what two prominent figures have stated, and the fact that "The Blair government ASSURED voters the number of new arrivals from eastern Europe would be around 13,000"...and it was a Million. Then obviously it is not worth taking anything that they "assured" , the fact that mass immigration was "political" and that the warning of the "significant impact on wages and the health service", was not "a negative impact on wages from EU migration."
Fair enough.

Dandyman · Mar 25, 2015

The real value of wages fell between 2008 and 2013 (post the 2007 crash) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-suffer-unprecedented-fall-in-real-wages.html

Wages rose between 2000 and 2007 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regio...-employees-in-the-UK-and-its-regions--2002-12

Dandyman · Mar 25, 2015

Soulman said:
Ok, if you want to ignore what two prominent figures have stated, and the fact that "The Blair government ASSURED voters the number of new arrivals from eastern Europe would be around 13,000"...and it was a Million. Then obviously it is not worth taking anything that they "assured" , the fact that mass immigration was "political" and that the warning of the "significant impact on wages and the health service", was not "a negative impact on wages from EU migration."
Fair enough.

Tony Blair was a liar - Who knew ? You have yet to provide any evidence that the EU migrants have had a negative effect on wages.

Soulman · Mar 25, 2015

Dandyman said:
Tony Blair was a liar - Who knew ? You have yet to provide any evidence that the EU migrants have had a negative effect on wages.

Well the "evidence" that i have gone by is that who were involved at the time re: "It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant impact on wages and the health service".
I would imagine they have a better idea than you and i.
My personal "evidence" comes with working in an industry that is stacked with immigrant workers that decended here in the Labour term, and YES it has had "impact" on wages, definitely.

Dandyman · Mar 25, 2015

Soulman said:
Well the "evidence" that i have gone by is that who were involved at the time re: "It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant impact on wages and the health service".
I would imagine they have a better idea than you and i.
My personal "evidence" comes with working in an industry that is stacked with immigrant workers that decended here in the Labour term, and YES it has had "impact" on wages, definitely.

Whereas that well know Trot rag the Torygraph says wages have fallen post 2008 and all the other evidence shows wages rising from 1999 to 2007. Therefore the fall in wages came after the Bankers screwed the economy not when new EU migrants arrived in 2004.

Soulman · Mar 25, 2015

Dandyman said:
Whereas that well know Trot rag the Torygraph says wages have fallen post 2008 and all the other evidence shows wages rising from 1999 to 2007. Therefore the fall in wages came after the Bankers screwed the economy not when new EU migrants arrived in 2004.

Really, then how come my rate was unchanged, and actually decreased between 2004 and 2010. My rate has actually risen only in the last 5 years, though not really in keeping with inflation. I would imagine that other tradesmen on here in the construction industry will back up my claim.
I will admit that the banking crisis that came under Labours watch has to take some blame, but you still seem to think that what prominent people in the Labour party have stated did not have .....quote: " a negative effect on wages"
So how do you explain ""It also emerged that former Cabinet minister John Denham, who served under Mr Blair, wrote to chancellor Gordon Brown and home secretary Charles Clarke to warn the influx of new workers was having a significant impact on wages and the health service".
These two people are not the only Labour people that have admitted they got it wrong.
My memory after Labours 13 years of waste and mounting debt, is not that short. They will do the same again, they have history.

By the way, from YESTERDAY, another Labour candidate, notice the year 2004 is mentioned.
Labour got it wrong on EU migration, admits party's General Election candidate.
http://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news...n__admits_party_s_General_Election_candidate/

Here we go, the right honourable Ed Milliband. From Labour List no less.
Miliband told the BBC that:

“We lost trust and we lost touch, particularly in the south of England, I think that living standards is a big part of it, I think immigration is a part of it too.”

“I don’t think we lied, but I do think we got it wrong in a number of respects, first of all we underestimated the number of people coming in from Poland, and that had more of an effect therefore than we would otherwise have thought.”

“And secondly I think there is this really important issue of people coming together, more people coming into this country, and the PRESSURE on peoples WAGES.”

So how can you say it did not in your words have " " a negative effect on wages"..........tell me.

melias shoes · Mar 25, 2015

Downlander said:
Next time you see Milliband in the Commons he will be Prime Minister? Scary isn't it?

Bloody terrifying. :ohmy:

Titanic · Mar 26, 2015

Latest YouGov poll (25 - 26 Mar):

CON - 36% (+2)
LAB - 34% (-1)
UKIP - 13% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-1)

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 27, 2015

I'm looking forward to the first post debate polls. I doubt we'll see Titanic over the next few weeks :lolol:

Herr Tubthumper · Mar 27, 2015

Dandyman said:
Whereas that well know Trot rag the Torygraph says wages have fallen post 2008 and all the other evidence shows wages rising from 1999 to 2007. Therefore the fall in wages came after the Bankers screwed the economy not when new EU migrants arrived in 2004.

This.

beorhthelm · Mar 27, 2015

Dandyman said:
Whereas that well know Trot rag the Torygraph says wages have fallen post 2008 and all the other evidence shows wages rising from 1999 to 2007. Therefore the fall in wages came after the Brown screwed the economy not when new EU migrants arrived in 2004.

ftfy. please do remember that the bankers you so detest also underpinned most the economic growth in most of the previous decade.

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