Play off run in. Team by Team.

Silent Bob · Apr 4, 2012

Garry Nelson's Left Foot said:
Hull have an easy-ish looking run in but have only won one fo their last ten games including four straight defeats so they're going to need a sharp turnaround in form if they want to sneak in. However with only 38 goals scored in 40 games and not particularly impressive home or away records(7 defeats each on the road and at home) that looks unlikely.

Cardiff also have a fairly easy run in but again their form isn't great, just eleven points from their last ten games and no wins in five. If that winless run stretches any further then they'll do very well to recover and get a play off place. In their favour they are hard to beat(only 9 defeats all season) so if they have a little bit of luck they can turn some of those draws into wins and become serious contenders again.

I can't make my mind up on Middleborough. Clearly they're a decent team they don't lose often(like Cardiff only 9 times so far) yet recently they haven't been able to buy a win. It's six games in a row now without a win. I think they might rectify that soon with games coming up against faltering hopefuls Cardiff and Hull. They could do themselves(and ourselves, Blackpool and Birmingham) a big favour by beating Cardiff. I think they are a real threat to our play off hopes so hopefully after they've beaten cardiff they'll resort to their run of draws and defeats...

As for Blackpool, they're the team that I fear the most for some reason. After looking at their form, I'm not too sure why-four wins and four defeats in their last ten. They do, however, have the easiest run in of everyone so I expect them to win more than they lose in the next six games. They're looking good at the moment for a place in the play offs.

Birmingham are now in the driving seat for a play off place. Back to back wins have left them three points clear of the pack in fourth and they also have the best goal difference of all the teams. Like us they have a mixed run in-three tough games and three(on paper...) not so tough. Our game against them at the Amex looks like it could be absolutely massive in terms of our play off chances.

So, to take a guess, I'd say it'll end very similarly to how it is now. I think Brum and Blackpool will get in there and then the last place will be down to us or Middlesborough(or Cardiff if they can re-kick start their season).

Good summary, and hard to disagree with your conclusions. I thought Birmingham might be in a bit of trouble but two good away wins in a row puts them in a good position, they're effectively 4 points clear of 7th with their goal difference but it's not impossible for teams to make that up on them. Blackpool would have to commit suicide not to get there with their run in.

I can't see Middlesbrough losing to Hull or Cardiff, I think they'll get 4-6 points which will almost end those two teams playoff challenges, Hull especially.

The wild card in all this is Watford, who're on a superb run and have to play 5 of the 6 teams. Whether this means their fixtures up to now have been easier I don't know, but if it continues they could easily find themselves in with a shout.

Birmingham 75
Blackpool 75
Middlesbrough 72
Cardiff 71
Hull 68

Tha's my predictions (which will probably turn out to be woefully wrong) for the other teams including us beating Birmingham. Which would mean we need 9/10 points to make the playoffs.

So:
Burnley 1
Reading 0
West Ham 0
Watford 3
Birmingham 3
Barnsley 3

:shrug:

brunswick · Apr 4, 2012

I see West Ham, Brum, and Blackpool all certs for the play-offs (maybe swap reading for west ham).

This leaves one place up for grabs, and it is between Mboro, us, hull, cardiff, and even a few others.

I don't see us making it, we just don't score enough goals as our forwards CMS and Vokes are, well, frankly, lame within the system we play.

But i live in hope and will enjoy the excitement.

fleet · Apr 4, 2012

brunswick said:
I see West Ham, Brum, and Blackpool all certs for the play-offs (maybe swap reading for west ham).

This leaves one place up for grabs, and it is between Mboro, us, hull, cardiff, and even a few others.

I don't see us making it, we just don't score enough goals as our forwards CMS and Vokes are, well, frankly, lame within the system we play.

But i live in hope and will enjoy the excitement.

Agree that we are fighting for the last spot in the playoffs, but we have goals in the team so think it is on. The "6 pointers" may swing it, but we must win the "easy" ones, starting Friday

kevo · Apr 4, 2012

I wonder if the Easter scheduling will help us. We have games on Friday and Tuesday, with three clear days inbetween. Blackpool play Friday and Monday, but our other play-off rivals all have two games in three days (Sat and Mon).

kevo · Apr 13, 2012

Updated, with Leicester fixtures added.

Leaving out Saints, Reading and West Ham leaving just 3 play off spots this is the run in. Games v current top 10 teams will be in red.

Birmingham
70

Bristol City (Home)
Ipswich (Away)
Brighton (Away)
Reading (Home)

2 of the top 10 teams.

Blackpool
67

Forest (Away)
Leeds (Home)
Burnley (Home)
Millwall (Away)

0 of the top 10 teams.

Cardiff
65

Barnsley (Away)
Derby (Home)
Leeds (Home)
Palace (Away)

0 of the top 10 teams.

Brighton
63

West Ham (Away)
Watford (Home)
Birmingham (Home)
Barnsley (Away)

2 of the top 10 teams.

Middlesbrough
63

Derby (Away)
Doncaster (Home)
Southampton (Home)
Watford (Away)

1 of the top 10 teams.

Leicester
62

Millwall (Away)
Burnley (Home)
West Ham (Home)
Leeds (Away)

1 of the top 10 teams.

Hull
61

Watford (Away)
Barnsley (Home)
Forest (Home)
West Ham (Away)

1 of the top 10 teams.[/QUOTE]

Rugrat · Apr 13, 2012

Dirk Gently · Apr 13, 2012

By the time Brum play Reading and Boro play Saints the top two places might well be decided, so the relevance of them as playing "top 10 teams" could have gone.

Nathan · Apr 13, 2012

Palace to do us a favour on the last day of the season? Muzza to score the winning to defeat cardiff.

les dynam · Apr 13, 2012

who are saints playing, other than reading tonight? i think they'll lose tonight, plus an away game, and i could see them bottling it under sadkins allowing west ham to pip them to second spot. they will then choke choke choke in the play offs. if we get there we'll win the thing, as on our day, we're a much better team than any of the others - i.e. we have vicente!

edit - i now see saints still have to go to boro... that's the other game they'll lose.

Rugrat · Apr 13, 2012

Dirk Gently said:
By the time Brum play Reading and Boro play Saints the top two places might well be decided, so the relevance of them as playing "top 10 teams" could have gone.

and all 6 pointers gone now

Simster · Apr 13, 2012

les dynam said:
who are saints playing, other than reading tonight? i think they'll lose tonight, plus an away game, and i could see them bottling it under sadkins allowing west ham to pip them to second spot. they will then choke choke choke in the play offs. if we get there we'll win the thing, as on our day, we're a much better team than any of the others - i.e. we have vicente!

edit - i now see saints still have to go to boro... that's the other game they'll lose.

If we are going to qualify, the chances are we will have to beat West Ham (or possibly draw). So I can't see West Ham pipping Southampton AND us making the play-offs...

les dynam · Apr 13, 2012

Simster said:
If we are going to qualify, the chances are we will have to beat West Ham (or possibly draw). So I can't see West Ham pipping Southampton AND us making the play-offs...

we won't. think we'll get tonked tomorrow, and west ham will win their last 3 after that to pip southampton by a point. for the play offs, i reckon cardiff will grind out a nil nil in the final and win on penos.

sparkie · Apr 13, 2012

Can't see us making the playoffs if we lose to West Ham

Bold Seagull · Apr 13, 2012

kevo said:
updated, with leicester fixtures added.

Leaving out saints, reading and west ham leaving just 3 play off spots this is the run in. Games v current top 10 teams will be in red.

birmingham
70 - final 76

bristol city (home)
ipswich (away)
brighton (away)
reading (home)

2 of the top 10 teams.

blackpool
67 - final 74

forest (away)
leeds (home)
burnley (home)
millwall (away)

0 of the top 10 teams.

cardiff
65 - final 73

barnsley (away)
derby (home)
leeds (home)
palace (away)

0 of the top 10 teams.

brighton
63 - final 71

west ham (away)
watford (home)
birmingham (home)
barnsley (away)

2 of the top 10 teams.

middlesbrough
63 - final 70

derby (away)
doncaster (home)
southampton (home)
watford (away)

1 of the top 10 teams.

leicester
62 - final 69

millwall (away)
burnley (home)
west ham (home)
leeds (away)

1 of the top 10 teams.

hull
61 - final 68

watford (away)
barnsley (home)
forest (home)
west ham (away)

1 of the top 10 teams.

[/quote]

How I think the points will end up....and I honestly know jack shit.

Rastamouse84 · Apr 13, 2012

Whether Brighton get in the Play-Offs all hinges on tomorrow for me. If they win then I think they'll do it .......Just. Anything else and they wont.

West Ham (a) Win

?
Watford (H) Win
Birmingham (H) Draw - they should have secured a play-off place by then
Barnsley (A) Win - if a win is needed on the final day then Brighton will get it

So I see a finish of 72 points with a west ham win. 70 with a draw.

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Play off run in. Team by Team.

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Silent Bob

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fleet

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