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Thread: How many points needed for automatic promotion?

  1. #1
    Registered User 7oaksgull's Avatar
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    How many points needed for automatic promotion?


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    Here are the final points for the top 3 teams in League One over the last 10 years:

    1st 2nd 3rd
    2009/10 95 86 85
    2008/09 96 89 87
    2007/08 92 82 80
    2006/07 91 85 83
    2005/06 82 79 76
    2004/05 98 86 79
    2003/04 90 83 82
    2002/03 100 86 83
    2001/02 90 84 83
    2000/01 93 91 86

    So 88 points would have been enough to get automatic promotion in any year.

    We have 53 points from 27 games so it looks like another 35 points from the last 19 games will get us in the Championship.

    We have the following games left:

    Home:
    Hartlepool
    Plymouth
    Carlisle
    Tranmere
    Notts County
    Swindon
    Shef Wed
    Dag & Red
    Southampton
    Huddesfield

    Away:
    MK Dons
    Yeovil
    Brentford
    Oldham
    Dag & Red
    Rochdale
    Walsall
    Colchester
    Notts County

    Will we get at least 35 points from these 19 games?


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  2. #2
    Slut Faced Whores Tony Meolas Loan Spell's Avatar
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    On paper we shouldnt LOSE another game all season. But then Bmth turned us over but I reckon we will get close. Maybe it will be a repeat of 2005/6 where only 82 points was enough to finish top?
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    Who's Next? The Large One's Avatar
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    Firekin' stroll on.

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  4. #4
    Registered User Simster's Avatar
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    I think a low points total will do it this year. It's quite a strong division by league 1 standards, and this has meant that no team has really steam-rollered the division.

  5. #5
    Briefcase Mong Badger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7oaksgull View Post
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    Here are the final points for the top 3 teams in League One over the last 10 years:

    1st 2nd 3rd
    2009/10 95 86 85
    2008/09 96 89 87
    2007/08 92 82 80
    2006/07 91 85 83
    2005/06 82 79 76
    2004/05 98 86 79
    2003/04 90 83 82
    2002/03 100 86 83
    2001/02 90 84 83
    2000/01 93 91 86

    So 88 points would have been enough to get automatic promotion in any year.

    How did you work that out? 88 points wouldn't have got us promoted in 00/01 or 08/09.

    As for this season, I reckon somewhere in the 80-85 bracket will be enough.
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  6. #6
    Abort, retry, fail Barrel of Fun's Avatar
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    2010/11 Matches 339 : Draws 87 - 25.66%
    2009/10 Matches 552 : Draws 152 - 27.53%
    2008/09 Matches 552 : Draws 147 - 26.63%
    2007/08 Matches 552 : Draws 140 - 25.36%
    2006/07 Matches 552 : Draws 139 - 25.18%
    2005/06 Matches 552 : Draws 173 - 31.34%
    2004/05 Matches 552 : Draws 149 - 26.99%
    2003/04 Matches 552 : Draws 166 - 30.07%
    2002/03 Matches 552 : Draws 150 - 27.17%
    2001/02 Matches 552 : Draws 152 - 27.54%
    2000/01 Matches 552 : Draws 151 - 27.36%

    Percentage/amount of draws, thus depriving the points pool of 1 point per game.
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  7. #7
    Registered User 7oaksgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badger View Post
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    How did you work that out? 88 points wouldn't have got us promoted in 00/01 or 08/09.

    As for this season, I reckon somewhere in the 80-85 bracket will be enough.
    Sorry, the way I loked at is was in 00/01 the team finishing 3rd had 86 points. In 08/09 the team finishing third had 87 points. So 88 points would have been enough for the team finishing in second place...

  8. #8
    Registered User OSRGull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7oaksgull View Post
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    Here are the final points for the top 3 teams in League One over the last 10 years:

    1st 2nd 3rd
    2009/10 95 86 85
    2008/09 96 89 87
    2007/08 92 82 80
    2006/07 91 85 83
    2005/06 82 79 76
    2004/05 98 86 79
    2003/04 90 83 82
    2002/03 100 86 83
    2001/02 90 84 83
    2000/01 93 91 86

    So 88 points would have been enough to get automatic promotion in any year.

    We have 53 points from 27 games so it looks like another 35 points from the last 19 games will get us in the Championship.

    We have the following games left:

    Home:
    Hartlepool -3
    Plymouth-3
    Carlisle-1
    Tranmere-3
    Notts County-3
    Swindon-3
    Shef Wed-1
    Dag & Red-3
    Southampton-1
    Huddesfield-1

    Away:
    MK Dons-3
    Yeovil-1
    Brentford-1
    Oldham-1
    Dag & Red-3
    Rochdale-1
    Walsall-0
    Colchester-0
    Notts County-3

    Will we get at least 35 points from these 19 games?
    That's 34 points, and even that would take us to 87 so it's going to be hard.

  9. #9
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    Still need another 12wins. Definitely do-able but also far easier said than done. As Gus says we are potentially our own worst enemy this season. We have to remain focused ignore what the other teams are doing and maintain our good form.

  10. #10
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    Another 11 wins and a couple of draws would see us home, allowing us another 4 defeats, unless of course we end up drawing a lot of games. A lot of ifs and buts in there but if we target say 12 wins then we'll be promoted.

    I would target these 16 games as great chances of securing maximum points, this would leave room for a few inevitable hiccups as well as the trickier games against SCC, Huddersfield and Oldham

    Home:
    Hartlepool
    Plymouth
    Carlisle
    Tranmere
    Notts County
    Swindon
    Shef Wed
    Dag & Red

    Away:
    MK Dons
    Yeovil
    Brentford
    Dag & Red
    Rochdale
    Walsall
    Colchester
    Notts County

    To conclude, yes I think we'll do it

  11. #11
    Registered User nwgull's Avatar
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    If all of our promotion rivals were to average 2 points per games for their remaining games (and that's pessimitic since 2 points per game is league winning form), we'd need maximum of 85 points or more likely 84 points with our goal difference. So that would be another 31 points from 19 games, or 9 wins, 4 draws.
    It's only a game - whatever the result you still have to go back to work on Monday.

  12. #12
    Registered User Tricky Dicky's Avatar
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    It's less than an average of 2 points game, so win at home, draw away and that's it with 3 points to spare.
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  13. #13
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    Gus' stated target is 2 points per game = 90 points which would see us safely promoted no matter what anyone else does. We are currently marginally off the pace but with two home games to come we should (hopefully) be pretty much on track at the end of the month. If we are there will be 16 games to go (8 home and 8 away). Maintaining a 2 points per game average is ideal because, not being achievable in any one match, it allows you to draw a game knowing you can make it up next time out - a slight easing of pressure perhaps? And as we go forward, 2 points a game over a shorter run of games should look more achievable.**


    I do however, agree with nwgull that our challengers' form would have to be exceptional to deny us promotion with around 86 points



    ** we currently average a little over 2 points a game at home and a very creditable 1.5 points per game away from home so looked at another way - if we maintain our current form - we could attain something like 22 points from home matches and 13 away points. - which should be enough
    Last edited by severnside gull; 07-02-2011 at 16:40.
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  14. #14
    Abort, retry, fail Barrel of Fun's Avatar
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  15. #15
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    Yay, 11 points clear!
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