[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

Djmiles · Jan 16, 2019

Marty McFly said:
Whereabouts in Canada are you, bud?

Just flown over the Maritimes. Seemingly lots of snow on the ground!

Currently just an hour from Detroit/Windsor. Will be moving up to London-Kitchener way in the next few weeks though!

HalifaxSeagull · Jan 16, 2019

Papa Lazarou said:
It's certainly possible, but I think what you're asking is whether is PROBABLE.

Tonight's GFS is a big step in the right direction. The models have been really struggling from the 22nd onwards for a number of days, which is understandable, as it's been many days in the future, and the effect (if any) of the SSW has been hard to model until it started to work its way down through the atmosphere.

Where we are tonight is the GFS ensemble, for the first time in the 'spell' have come to some agreement, and that seems to be more cold than not. However, as the attached shows, although the snow % values have increased nicely there are still milder options (this is the 850hpa temp).

View attachment 103833

Looking at surface temps there is still a 'range' available, but the cold outcomes are increasing.

View attachment 103834

So, it's an increasing chance, but it could still easily got ever so wrong and we get cold rain. I'd say it's now pretty much guaranteed for upland and northern parts of the UK at some stage (even this week), but down here we need to wait a little longer, and although we probably will see snow falling, it's the longevity and persistence (on the ground) that's the variable.

How location specific are the above models? Do you do it by postcode / town / region?

I’ve just put on my winter tyres - what do the models say for ooop north (HX4 specifically)

Papa Lazarou · Jan 16, 2019

HalifaxSeagull said:
How location specific are the above models? Do you do it by postcode / town / region?

I’ve just put on my winter tyres - what do the models say for ooop north (HX4 specifically)

These are generated from this clickable map, and probably equate to somewhere like Burgess Hill

Edit: 51.1N 0.6W = Near Haslemere, so a little more inland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

Alternatively there is Europe Version:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

And a Global one:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=2

the Snow Row Analysis stuff is for Brighton and is from the Brighton GEFS plots on TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Papa Lazarou · Jan 16, 2019

Papa Lazarou said:
The tricky but is this period (21st to 22nd) where the low goes and ow much blocking gets established to the West and North West of the UK

View attachment 103754

Worth quoting myself to show how the change I was talking about can make such a difference.

The slider low zips into France quickly, and pressure can build towards Scandinavia before the next low can arrive, meaning we get an Easterly flow.

There's increasing support for this...

Notters · Jan 17, 2019

Slight dusting on the cars here this morning.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 17, 2019

Looking interesting still

Giraffe · Jan 17, 2019

A brief snow flurry on the Farnham area, now turning to rain.

casbom · Jan 17, 2019

Papa Lazarou said:
Looking interesting still

View attachment 103846

If I had to be picky about that ECM chart, it's that we've got a SE flow which means dry! haha! The GFS run this morning is certainly interesting, it appears to keep us in a longer cold spell.

Frutos · Jan 17, 2019

Steadily falling and settling in NE1.

Bozza · Jan 17, 2019

Papa Lazarou said:
Looking interesting still

View attachment 103846

What does that mean exactly?

Papa Lazarou · Jan 17, 2019

Bozza said:
What does that mean exactly?

What it means is:

1. The likelihood of snow falling in Brighton in the next couple of weeks has increased considerably over the past 24 hours (according to the GFS model).
2. By extension there is an increased chance of snow across Sussex and the whole of the UK
3. The data per calendar day suggests the days with the highest risk of snow are: 21st to 25th January.
4. The West Brom game could be decidedly chilly with snow possible in the days before, and maybe on the day itself
5. There is still a risk of snow after then
6. It could still all go wrong

Papa Lazarou · Jan 17, 2019

casbom said:
If I had to be picky about that ECM chart, it's that we've got a SE flow which means dry! haha! The GFS run this morning is certainly interesting, it appears to keep us in a longer cold spell.

Yes. Id say it's the general setup that's key. Get the block in the right place and BOOM!

The ECM ensembles are very encouraging as well.

This site is for Reading, but shows it will be cold and potentially snowy from the 22nd there.

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro/temperature

pearl · Jan 17, 2019

Papa Lazarou said:
What it means is:

1. The likelihood of snow falling in Brighton in the next couple of weeks has increased considerably over the past 24 hours (according to the GFS model).
2. By extension there is an increased chance of snow across Sussex and the whole of the UK
3. The data per calendar day suggests the days with the highest risk of snow are: 21st to 25th January.
4. The West Brom game could be decidedly chilly with snow possible in the days before, and maybe on the day itself
5. There is still a risk of snow after then
6. It could still all go wrong

You're so much better than Carol Kirkwood, she starts with Scotland and barely mentions Sussex

Frankie · Jan 17, 2019

#weatherlikesussex

BigGully · Jan 17, 2019

Papa Lazarou said:
What it means is:

1. The likelihood of snow falling in Brighton in the next couple of weeks has increased considerably over the past 24 hours (according to the GFS model).
2. By extension there is an increased chance of snow across Sussex and the whole of the UK
3. The data per calendar day suggests the days with the highest risk of snow are: 21st to 25th January.
4. The West Brom game could be decidedly chilly with snow possible in the days before, and maybe on the day itself
5. There is still a risk of snow after then
6. It could still all go wrong

At a sports quiz some years ago a question was correctly answered that West Broms ground is the highest (above sea level) ground in the English football league and I feel compelled to tell people this whenever West Brom is mentioned, perhaps this time there is some relevance to saying it ......

casbom · Jan 17, 2019

GFS has gone off on one (if you like bitterly cold and snow!) Doubt it will have much support but proper weather porn!

pearl · Jan 17, 2019

BigGully said:
At a sports quiz some years ago a question was correctly answered that West Broms ground is the highest (above sea level) ground in the English football league and I feel compelled to tell people this whenever West Brom is mentioned, perhaps this time there is some relevance to saying it ......

why?

I thought Oldham's was actually

Easy 10 · Jan 17, 2019

pearl said:
why?

I thought Oldham's was actually

Oldham's is the coldest.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 17, 2019

casbom said:
GFS has gone off on one (if you like bitterly cold and snow!) Doubt it will have much support but proper weather porn!

But the ensemble is a slight downgrade from an ensemble perspective, so take your pick

Papa Lazarou · Jan 17, 2019

BigGully said:
At a sports quiz some years ago a question was correctly answered that West Broms ground is the highest (above sea level) ground in the English football league and I feel compelled to tell people this whenever West Brom is mentioned, perhaps this time there is some relevance to saying it ......

I remember a game at the Goldstone against West Brom when it snowed throughout the game.

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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

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