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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Gritt23
New member
When is it getting down South then Papa?
forecasts this morning suggest via ENS and META that this week will see a slight cooling although should not bring snow south, after the weekend temps are on the way up once again and the week before Christmas could be anything upto 5 degrees above seasonal norm, almost unheard of for this time of year
It's making my job of predicting energy demand extremely difficult at the moment
It's making my job of predicting energy demand extremely difficult at the moment
supaseagull
Well-known member
Metcheck has us for a very cold period from the 10th onwards and is predicting snow for next week
Metcheck.com - 14 Day Weather Forecast for Brighton - [Updated on 05 December 2011 at 14:00] - Weather Feeds - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts
Metcheck.com - 14 Day Weather Forecast for Brighton - [Updated on 05 December 2011 at 14:00] - Weather Feeds - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts
Left for work at 8.30 this morning and snow was falling heavily north of Otley (W Yorks). Not really settling, but a good dusting on the hills around us. Leeds itself was just sleet and cold! This time last year I worked from home for 4 days as our road was a couple of feet deep.
I wouldn't put too much faith in Metcheck if I were you. Their long term forecasts are rarely right in my experience (especially the 200+ mph winds they have been known to forecast).
Gritt23
New member
Is it just me who, whenever I go into this thread looking for Papa Lazarou's updates, I'm picturing him like this?
So EXPERTS. I have a football match in Horsham on Saturday, if I do this, I need to miss out on a MAD night out on the Friday. But I don't want to commit to Friday, if the game will be called off due to snow/frost/whatever. So weathernistas, help me decide
Braders
Abi Fletchers Gimpboy
and of course , those of us travelling up to 'Boro want to know if it's worth getting out of bed at stupid o'clock in the morning on Saturday?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Still nothing in the model output that excites my snow loving inner child....
So, in English - Decent snow down here still looking unlikely within the forseeable future.
Edit - I've seen that Metcheck forecast and it does surprise me based upon the 6Z GFS output. It's true there will be a short NW blow behind the weekend low, but I think they've over-egged the chances of snow. I guess we'll see.
So, in English - Decent snow down here still looking unlikely within the forseeable future.
Edit - I've seen that Metcheck forecast and it does surprise me based upon the 6Z GFS output. It's true there will be a short NW blow behind the weekend low, but I think they've over-egged the chances of snow. I guess we'll see.
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Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
It's looking cold, cloudy but mainly dry for the trip to 'Boro. Chance of drizzle at times.
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Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Is it just me who, whenever I go into this thread looking for Papa Lazarou's updates, I'm picturing him like this?
I'm not going to be making many 'coldies' happy at the moment. Looking mild all the way up to Xmas at the moment, but things can and will change.
For those amongst the amteur meteo community that subscribe to the pattern matching 'technique', the following is interesting.
The current setup reminds me of December 1982 (1 year after the severe December of 1981), the first half of the month brought several spells of cold mobile weather (zonality):
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119821210.gif
However, much like how things seem to be heading this year, a high pressure built from the south around mid month leading to a green Christmas.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119821225.gif
It took until the end of January for cold weather to really get going, but Feb was cold with a notable period of NE winds, and lots of snow in the SE.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00119830208.gif
Hillian1
( . ) ( . )
Is it just me who has a shudder every time I see this thread at the top?
I hate the cold. I hate snow and all the chaos it brings.
I hate the cold. I hate snow and all the chaos it brings.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
You may have noticed that it's not me (or any of the other weather savvy NSC members) bouncing this thread. I tend to browse the latest model output every day (up to 4 times a day for the GFS, and twice daily for ECMWF & UKMO).
If there was a clear signal for colder / snowy weather (and not just a sleety shower) I would be on here to apprise everyone immediately.
However, what's happening is that other people are hearing rumours or half truths from the media and assuming that we're heading for a new Ice Age. I then get summoned onto here to comment on it.
I promise, if things change I'll provide as detailed a forecast as possible, but for now, let's all go with the assumption it's going to be coldish to mild in the run up to Xmas, and pretty much snow free down here.
Brighton 9 am 3/12/10 - minus 11C 12F
Brighton 9 am 3/12/11 - plus 12C 54F
Difference 23C 42F warmer this year.
I have a feeling this is going to be the warmest Winter on record. Today is 8C which is normal but as it has been over 5C above normal for 2 months it feels very cold, it is not.
Brighton 9 am 3/12/11 - plus 12C 54F
Difference 23C 42F warmer this year.
I have a feeling this is going to be the warmest Winter on record. Today is 8C which is normal but as it has been over 5C above normal for 2 months it feels very cold, it is not.
Hillian1
( . ) ( . )
I know it's not you, first thing I do is look to see if you've posted on it, because you are horribly accurate.
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,581
I'm with you Papa, I believe it's going to be a green xmas also unfortunately! That Strat is incredibly cold at the moment and currently having a record +AO isn't helping any kind of blocking that we need to have for any lengthy cold spell. Only hope for the next 6 weeks is if the Polar Vortex moves to the West as forecast, we might get a sneeky Scandi high in a couple of weeks, so it might be seasonal over xmas (ie cold).
Long term and it is looking like Mid Jan onwards is when we'll get the best chance of the white stuff, even then there's no guarantee though!
Long term and it is looking like Mid Jan onwards is when we'll get the best chance of the white stuff, even then there's no guarantee though!
Gritt23
New member
To be fair, the thread got bounced today on the back of snow arriving in Manchester. So, not entirely random. As soon as I heard on the drive to work that snow had arrived in the north of the country today, I absolutely knew this thread would get a bounce.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Indeed. What people have to remember is that until the last 3 winters we'd gone many years (since Feb 91 really) since a proper snowy winter.
So, it's not going to be a surprise if this turns out to be a mild one down here.