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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Remember this threat of rain won't be until end of next week (if it happens at all), we could end up with a Channel low!

It's going to get cold enough for snow from Sunday night through to Thurs at least based on the current Models.
How cold and how snowy is what we don't know until maybe 12 hours beforehand.

Yep. EVEN the GFS ensemble (which only goes out to day 7 currently - still in progress) shows solid cold until then, plus good snow percentages and growing totals. (Remember it's the GFS that's more keen on the mild push - the ECM keeps it colder for longer)

graphe_ens4_byj2.gif
 


Djmiles

Barndoor Holroyd
Dec 1, 2005
12,060
Kitchener, Canada
Yep. EVEN the GFS ensemble (which only goes out to day 7 currently - still in progress) shows solid cold until then, plus good snow percentages and growing totals. (Remember it's the GFS that's more keen on the mild push - the ECM keeps it colder for longer)

graphe_ens4_byj2.gif

So exactly how much SLEET are we going to get, Papa?
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
The GFS ensemble is out, and the Op and Control runs are slightly too keen on a mild breakdown... so the possibility of cold / snow post Thursday is still there,

graphe_ens3_fuf8.gif


The 2m Temps show the control as a BIG outlier by Friday

graphe_ens4_lvd1.gif
 








Flex Your Head

Well-known member
Best I've ever seen!
:cheers:
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.
 


Djmiles

Barndoor Holroyd
Dec 1, 2005
12,060
Kitchener, Canada
Best I've ever seen!
:cheers:
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

Amazes me how they can put out a forecast for the next 4 weeks, when we don't even know what's happening next week. Here's my forecast:

Cold, very cold at times with a chance of snow throughout most of next week, then who the f*ck knows.
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Best I've ever seen!
:cheers:
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

That is mental...
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Aug 8, 2005
26,460
Best I've ever seen!
:cheers:
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

This leaves me thinking it isn’t going to happen!
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
This leaves me thinking it isn’t going to happen!

I think that's always a reasonable approach.... prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Although depending upon whether you like or hate snow, I guess it makes a massive difference in what you prepare for!
 




BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
This leaves me thinking it isn’t going to happen!

The cold will get here thats for sure, thats the first hurdle then after who knows but quite a brave forecast from the Met Office, this isnt a speculative Daily Express headline but the Met Office so it's got me thinking, I am hoping for a 'snowday' with friends unable to make it to work so to the pub it is :O
 


casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,581
Best I've ever seen!
:cheers:
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

EDIT: Anyone see the Thames Streamer showing up on the ICON (Hi-Res) Model for Tues am?
 
Last edited:


chucky1973

New member
Nov 3, 2010
8,829
Crawley
papa and the other weather guros.

We need a simple idiots forecast day by day for next week.,

Is this event still "likely" to happen? Will we get to say the word "flumping" next week?
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
The 12Z models are starting to roll out - a big moment, as this will put us within 96 hours of the action starting Monday afternoon / evening.

So far, everything is good, to say the least :)
 






Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
The 12Z models are starting to roll out - a big moment, as this will put us within 96 hours of the action starting Monday afternoon / evening.

So far, everything is good, to say the least :)

There does not seem to be any significant cooling trend and it taking an absolute eternity for anything cold to be reaching here. Monday 11 c, Tuesday 9c, Wednesday 8c, Today 8c and BBC going for 7 c at the week end. So I ask, are temperatures likely to go from 7 c to near freezing daytime temperatures within the space of 24 hours ? It is spring like at the moment so this is why I am so sceptical as this cold just seems to be put back day after day, so will it actually ever turn up or will it stay in France ?
 




Yoda

English & European
There does not seem to be any significant cooling trend and it taking an absolute eternity for anything cold to be reaching here. Monday 11 c, Tuesday 9c, Wednesday 8c, Today 8c and BBC going for 7 c at the week end. So I ask, are temperatures likely to go from 7 c to near freezing daytime temperatures within the space of 24 hours ? It is spring like at the moment so this is why I am so sceptical as this cold just seems to be put back day after day, so will it actually ever turn up or will it stay in France ?

Where are seeing these figures for on the BBC?

Forecast - Worthing
Day by day forecast

Today, High 6°, Low -1°, Sunny and breezy
Tomorrow, High 6°, Low -3°, Sunny and breezy
Sat 24th, High 5°, Low -1°, Sunny and breezy
Sun 25th, High 4°, Low -3°, Sunny and breezy
Mon 26th, High 3°, Low -3°, Sunny intervals and breezy
Tue 27th, High 3°, Low -4°, Light snow showers and breezy
Wed 28th, High 3°, Low -4°, Sunny intervals and breezy
Thu 1st, High 2°, Low -3°, Sunny intervals and breezy
Fri 2nd, High 4°, Low -1°, Light snow and breezy
Sat 3rd, High5°, Low 0°, Sunny intervals and breezy
Sun 4th, High 6°, Low 0°, Light cloud and breezy
Mon 5th, High 6°, Low 1°, Sunny intervals and breezy
Tue 6th, High 7°, Low 1°, Sunny intervals and breezy
Wed 7th, High 7°, Low 1°, Sunny intervals and breezy
 


martin tyler

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2013
5,826
There does not seem to be any significant cooling trend and it taking an absolute eternity for anything cold to be reaching here. Monday 11 c, Tuesday 9c, Wednesday 8c, Today 8c and BBC going for 7 c at the week end. So I ask, are temperatures likely to go from 7 c to near freezing daytime temperatures within the space of 24 hours ? It is spring like at the moment so this is why I am so sceptical as this cold just seems to be put back day after day, so will it actually ever turn up or will it stay in France ?

It will defiantly be colder. BBC apps do give a high of 5/6 degrees over weekend but when you break them down into the 3 hour charts they actually show a high of 3 over weekend and 1 degree Monday with temperatures a few degrees below freezing over night and the BBC is always pretty cautious. Personally having been out today in around Lewes the wind feels cold quite noticeably. Whether it actually snows we will have to wait and see closer to the time still I think. Current models show a Thames Streamer affect Tuesday which looks interesting and and Friday looks quite marginal for a decent spell of snow but could quite easily be rain. BBC App actually shows this currently as sleet for Lewes most the day. Quite often the best snow we get is predicted very late on. Personally I think the charts Monday afternoon onwards will be most interesting. Until then I expect that we will feel the change in temperature over the next few days
 



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