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  1. #11801
    Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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    Agreed. We had a big shower on Sunday and the same one you mentioned yesterday evening. I needed to pop down the shops a while after and in places it was like walking over crushed broken glass.
    I momentarily considered making a “Hailman” but thought better of it!

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    • #11802
      Super Moderator edna krabappel's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
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      Ok, we'll just have to see. So, you're forecast is daytime max temps no lower than 6C for the next fortnight (the max range of the ensemble)?
      It snowed quite heavily in places last night- the roads around Heathfield in particular were quite treacherous in the early hours. I've no doubt it will all have melted well before dawn, however, so you'll just have to take my word for it
      The lady has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of her own. What half-baked drivel! See how the men look at her with utter contempt.
    • #11803
      The Disowned Masses
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      Agreed. We had a big shower on Sunday and the same one you mentioned yesterday evening. I needed to pop down the shops a while after and in places it was like walking over crushed broken glass.
      Was that just outside the Valley Bar?
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    • #11804

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      Quote Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
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      The latest GFS Op run shows how it can go wrong, as the high stays a little to south, and cuts off the really cold air from the NE. We do get some snow, but then the air from the ESE warms up and south of the M4 gets rain. The ECM this morning was ideal. Got to see the ensemble now!
      Yeah, looks like a growing consensus that we'll get "an" easterly of some sort. Question is, will it be the Beast or will it be one of those disappointing ones that comes from too far south. If I'm honest, I don't much care if any snow we get is transitory as long as we get enough that my 2 year old can go out and build his first snowman. And timed so that I can do it with him (so on a Fri/Sat/Sun). Beyond that, I work just north of the M4 and just inside J16 of the M25. Depending on where and when any snow hits it can make travel interesting ... last winter I got caught out after it rained all day then turned to snow as the sun set. M25 all the way around to J9 was rain with a bit of sleet mixed in. J9 was a backed up mess as two lanes were closed by flooding. J9 onwards was increasing snow, eventually leaving me stuck in a queue for the J6 slip road, which was blocked because traffic couldn't get up the northbound A22 hill. Once I got out of that, heading south down the A22 was mostly clear until the stretch between East Grinstead and Nutley, which was lined by a range of abandoned vehicles left in interesting places (but had cleared enough by the time I got there it was no problem).


      Quote Originally Posted by Giraffe View Post
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      I’ve never known as much hail as we have had in the last few days. Last night in Findon it was as though it had snowed in places and it was still lying in parts of our drive this morning. A poor substitute for the real thing but interesting to see nonetheless.
      Had two hail showers back-to-back in Uckfield on Sunday. Neither were particularly heavy or prolonged, but was enough to whet the appetite for some proper wintry weather.
    • #11805
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
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      Was that just outside the Valley Bar?
      I see what you’ve done there.
    • #11806

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      Models are still showing so much scatter in their output there's no way a forecast beyond a few days is reliable.
    • #11807
      Members Uncle Spielberg's Avatar
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      BBC showing double figures by day here until the end of next week now, that takes us to 23 rd Feb. They are giving no indication of anything remotely cold for the rest of the month. Am I missing something ?
      Spielberg is GOD.
    • #11808
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      Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Spielberg View Post
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      BBC showing double figures by day here until the end of next week now, that takes us to 23 rd Feb. They are giving no indication of anything remotely cold for the rest of the month. Am I missing something ?
      People on Netweather.tv still saying the models are pointing to potentially very cold an snowy conditions starting late next week. BBC will be on time delay for this - although I understand one of their TV forecasters did say that something colder is coming.
    • #11809

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      Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Spielberg View Post
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      BBC showing double figures by day here until the end of next week now, that takes us to 23 rd Feb. They are giving no indication of anything remotely cold for the rest of the month. Am I missing something ?
      Gonna say it again: the modelling is *still* subject to a lot of scatter, with the result being that forecasting beyond the next few days is based on each forecasting group taking a punt on which models are more likely to verify. BBC have switched from using MetOffice forecasts to using MeteoGroup, and from what I can see they're currently erring on the side of the warmer models and discounting the colder ones - the MetOffice forecasts for Uckfield are colder than BBC (out to the 20th), and the netweather "forecast" (it's actually just autogenerated from the model results) is suggesting we'll be heading for colder conditions from around the 21st culminating in currently suggesting a sustained snow event on the afternoon of the 27th (note: netweather's forecast will flip-flop numerous times between now and then, depending on what the models do. But what I am seeing from watching them is that over the last few days they've been gradually trending towards being more likely to show colder weather.)

      The effects of an SSW take time to be felt in the lower atmosphere usually, and it's looking like this SSW will be no different (despite being a bit of a record breaker). It'll be late Feb and into March that we're most likely to see the coldest weather and highest chances for snow.





      Edit: Actually, go take a look at the long-range BBC text forecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook. In particular the 19-25 Feb outlook, and then the 26th and beyond outlook. Both are talking about potential cold drawn in by easterly winds and prospects for snow showers. You've got to look deeper than the "headline" temperatures on the main weather page.
      Last edited by Audax; 14-02-2018 at 16:29.
    • #11810
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      As @Audax has said there is still huge scatter in the models.
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