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  1. #11761
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    In this specific instance I tend to agree with @Uncle Spielberg

    Despite some good looking upper air temps in the forecast:

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    With -10c being hit at times (at 850hpa) for Worthing, the actual temperatures forecast on the ground down here (at this time of year) will give us a diurnal range of something like 5C to 0C .. perhaps a degree colder if we're lucky. This will be mainly due to the increased strength of the sun in late Feb. See below for the temp forecast:


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    With the increased sun strength we will see better convection, so we may see an April showers type situation (very much like today), and undoubtedly there will be snow in some showers, perhaps hail or graupel too, but unless we get more organised precipitation at the perfect time we're unlikely to see anything settling.

    Actually take today as a good example. We have 850hpa temps dropping from about -6 to about -9C by midnight. From this, it's currently 7C here in Worthing, but later on I expect to see a wintry mix in any showers as the local temp will drop as they arrive, but I don't expect anything to settle (for long).. and surely, for most of us, days of falling snow that doesn't settle is pointless, right?

    This all said, we may see something colder... I'd say we need upper temps of -12c at least to get cold enough air at the surface, which we COULD get, but it isn't appearing in the model output currently.
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    • #11762
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      Hi Papa,

      Surely it is possible to have freezing temperatures by day in late Feb / early March in Sussex to allow snow to settle? I seem to remember such conditions 45 years ago from my childhood. Many people are making the point about the strength of the sun, but aren't there two scenarios that would trump that:

      1. a continuous feed of cloud cover from the east, thereby negating any solar impact
      2. air coming from deep in the Russian landmass and through Europe.

      Either of these scenarios appear unlikely, but I am interested in your opinion as to the feasibility of my thinking.
    • #11763
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      Forget the bloody cold, when’s summer coming.
      "The first 90 minutes of the match are the most important"
    • #11764
      Members CorgiRegisteredFriend's Avatar
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      If you think it’s bloody cold check out the Winter Olympics
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    • #11765
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      A nice strong hail shower in Chichester earlier. (Clutching at straws)
    • #11766
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      Worst winter I remember was 1978 when I was a kid in Devon (where we got even less snow than Sussex), and the real snow was latish Feb as it coincided with our half term, as the planned 3 days off turned into 2 weeks of school closure. The north-facing hedges still had the remnants of snowdrifts under them in May. The road I lived in was closed for a week by a snowdrift that reached the guttering on the houses, and was eventually opened by a JCB being driven through it.

      Would LOVE to see something like that again......
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    • #11767
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      Quote Originally Posted by Dr Bandler View Post
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      Hi Papa,

      Surely it is possible to have freezing temperatures by day in late Feb / early March in Sussex to allow snow to settle? I seem to remember such conditions 45 years ago from my childhood. Many people are making the point about the strength of the sun, but aren't there two scenarios that would trump that:

      1. a continuous feed of cloud cover from the east, thereby negating any solar impact
      2. air coming from deep in the Russian landmass and through Europe.

      Either of these scenarios appear unlikely, but I am interested in your opinion as to the feasibility of my thinking.
      Yes, I think it was Feb or March 1985. I lived on Shoreham Beach and I remember days of sub-zero temps.

      It is possible, but as I suggested above a key requirement is very low upper air temps, combined with a cold continent and a favourable wind direction.

      So, ideally, we need -12 or -13C at 850hpa, a strong ENE feed (to reduce the journey over the sea, but still allow convection) and as you rightly say reduced sunshine.

      Interestingly this afternoon's GFS ensemble does show some signs of hitting these marks. If you see below a couple of runs later on take the upper temps down to -13C.



      Which results a daily max of 1 or 2C and -2C at night.



      This is a chart from Pert 12, the lime green one, which shows exactly what I was talking about, with cold uppers, and a strong E ish feed off the cold continent.

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    • #11768
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      Quote Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
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      Yes, I think it was Feb or March 1985. I lived on Shoreham Beach and I remember days of sub-zero temps.
      I remember Hove weatherman, Ken Woodhams (?), saying in The Argus that Hove had its coldest recorded night around that time. It was freezing.

      Thanks for your explanations - I am sure may of us are hoping for the easterly and some snow.
    • #11769
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      Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Spielberg View Post
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      It is, we are talking late feb / early mar, that is too late as the sun is much warmer, average temps are 9-10 c, so a cold day with be considered 5 c, the window of opportunity for cold days around freezing or just above and lying snow is mid dec - mid feb
      I've seen snow at Easter in Sussex. In fact, I've seen more white Easters than white Christmases.
      Quote Originally Posted by brighton bluenose View Post
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      NSC at its very best ~ a post based on assumption on a matter the poster hasn't got a clue about!!
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    • #11770
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      Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Bolt View Post
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      I've seen snow at Easter in Sussex. In fact, I've seen more white Easters than white Christmases.
      It's always possible.

      Sunday 6th April 2008 we had a heavy fall of snow in Worthing (and across Sussex).



      The Friday before the temperature had been up to 15c here and it was feeling almost summer like.

      I went toboganning with the kids in the afternoon at Cissbury Ring and it was still snowing at about 2pm, with temps about 1c.

      That actually came about from a NNE wind which is a little unusual

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