Page 1182 of 1415 FirstFirst ... 1826821082113211721179118011811182118311841185119212321282 ... LastLast
Results 11,811 to 11,820 of 14146
  1. #11811
    Unused sub REMF 4 Yoda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Worthing, West Sussex, United Kingdom
    Posts
    8,857


    0 Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    As @Audax has said there is still huge scatter in the models.
    HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.
    Why DON'T YOU ALL JUST
    Forza la Viola, Forza Fiorentina!!!
    Worthing Raiders RFC!!!

    • North Stand Chat

      advertising
      Join Date: Jul 2003
      Posts: Lots

        


    • #11812
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
      Join Date
      Aug 2005
      Posts
      21,393


      0 Not allowed!
      I know that I will sound a little mad, but the current weather is very odd isn't it. Consisently cold days of around 4 degrees but with rain. It just doesn't feel right. A few drier days coming up but cant help but feel that we are some way from heading into spring, whereas this time last year I think we were really writing the winter off.
    • #11813
      Members
      Join Date
      Jul 2003
      Location
      portslade
      Posts
      12,261


      0 Not allowed!
      Bloomin freezing out there today on my lunchtime walk.
      portslade seagull..brighton till i die
    • #11814

      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
      This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
      HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.
      Models are *still* all over the place this morning even. The "lesser" models seem to have latched onto the cold arriving earlier, while the main runs from the ECM and GFS are right at the warmer side of their ranges. Still plenty of scatter in the ensembles, and seeing some rapid flip-flopping change in some of the models further out in the runs.

      From reading on netweather, it looks like it all hinges on some specific patterns either developing or not developing, and the modelling is rather unsure which way it's going to go. GFS and ECM main runs think the evolution will be on the warm side, but the mean from their ensemble runs suggests much colder. Very little agreement between models beyond the next 4 days...
    • #11815
      Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
      Join Date
      Aug 2005
      Posts
      21,393


      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Audax View Post
      This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
      Models are *still* all over the place this morning even. The "lesser" models seem to have latched onto the cold arriving earlier, while the main runs from the ECM and GFS are right at the warmer side of their ranges. Still plenty of scatter in the ensembles, and seeing some rapid flip-flopping change in some of the models further out in the runs.

      From reading on netweather, it looks like it all hinges on some specific patterns either developing or not developing, and the modelling is rather unsure which way it's going to go. GFS and ECM main runs think the evolution will be on the warm side, but the mean from their ensemble runs suggests much colder. Very little agreement between models beyond the next 4 days...
      There does seem to be edging towards warmer weather again doesn't there. I find it odd how it changes so much from each update, but as always snow can only really be predicted in the very short term and they are trying to look ahead 9-10 days. The trend is edging warmer rather than colder though I fear but fingers crossed that changes.
    • #11816
      Members Mr Bridger's Avatar
      Join Date
      Feb 2013
      Location
      Top, top, top, top of the league
      Posts
      2,029


      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
      This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
      HUGE is an understatement. Not seen the 12z GEFS Ensemble charts yet but the 06z had the 850hpa as high as +7 degrees and as low as -15 during that period we're looking at.
      That is just like listening to the commentary to the half pipe snowboarding.
      Haven’t got. Scooby.
      We've come here to pay our respects to Great Aunt Nellie. She brought us up properly and taught us loyalty
    • #11817

      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Giraffe View Post
      This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
      There does seem to be edging towards warmer weather again doesn't there. I find it odd how it changes so much from each update, but as always snow can only really be predicted in the very short term and they are trying to look ahead 9-10 days. The trend is edging warmer rather than colder though I fear but fingers crossed that changes.
      GFS and, in particular, ECM are both edging warmer (widely regarded as two of the main three to watch). But ECM has been horribly unreliable this winter, and the ECM Op is apparently a warm outlier compared to its ensembles (which are majority favouring colder, snowier, conditions). Apparently BBC's forecasts rely entirely on ECM, so that clears up why they're sticking with the warmer temps through next week.

      All the other models (eg UKMO, JMA, etc) appear to be favouring cold.

      Either solution could be correct at this point, which is incredibly frustrating
    • #11818

      0 Not allowed!
      ...it’s on its way...winter finally arriving Feb 27th onwards. Get the shovels and sleighs ready.
    • #11819
      Members Peteinblack's Avatar
      Join Date
      Jun 2004
      Location
      Bath, Somerset.
      Posts
      1,987


      0 Not allowed!
      Met Office reckons that the bitterly cold easterlies and snow are due from the end of next week.

      Name:  Mat Office.PNG
Views: 213
Size:  35.2 KB
      Did you play in the Garden of Eden? Were the goalkeeper's gloves to you tossed?
      Cos it seems to me you're the reason, you're the reason why Paradise Lost.
    • #11820

      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Peteinblack View Post
      This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
      Met Office reckons that the bitterly cold easterlies and snow are due from the end of next week.

      Name:  Mat Office.PNG
Views: 213
Size:  35.2 KB
      Not sure this is going to happen. Most Models suggest cold air much further south than us at this time although there is still some variation between them. I think @Uncle Spielberg is going to be right at this time and we will get warmer Atlantic air. There is still hope as the models change so much and to be honest are 3/4 days ahead the variation is massive.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •