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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]











Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
As far as here is concerned, the outlook still has potential, but not enough to issue a forecast on here (or anywhere else).

This is the most recent GFS ensemble to illustrate this. Plenty of colder options, but little agreement on timing, and equally as many stay less cold

graphe_ens3_vhe2.gif
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
The current synoptic setup (see annotated version below) shows lots of blocking but the cold air is to our East (red arrow).

We need the high pressure to migrate West (blue arrow) and join the high pressure in the Western Atlantic, allowing low pressure to move SE into the Mediterranean (purple arrow)

The ensemble members where this happens are the cold ones, the ones where the High remains close to the UK it can't happen and the cycle continues.

shit diagram.png
 




Braggfan

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded
May 12, 2014
1,831
The current synoptic setup (see annotated version below) shows lots of blocking but the cold air is to our East (red arrow).

We need the high pressure to migrate West (blue arrow) and join the high pressure in the Western Atlantic, allowing low pressure to move SE into the Mediterranean (purple arrow)

The ensemble members where this happens are the cold ones, the ones where the High remains close to the UK it can't happen and the cycle continues.

View attachment 80829

I love your annotated arrows, you're like meteorological Gary Neville. I think who the meteorological Chris Kamara is should be put to a vote.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
I love your annotated arrows, you're like meteorological Gary Neville. I think who the meteorological Chris Kamara is should be put to a vote.

It was done very quickly - hence the name I gave the diagram
 


Braggfan

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded
May 12, 2014
1,831
It was done very quickly - hence the name I gave the diagram

It wasn't a criticism. I genuinely like them, the annotations show what we need fro snow. My comparison to Gary Neville was because he is also someone who knows what he's talking about who explains things clearly to the ignorant viewers, such as myself.
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
It wasn't a criticism. I genuinely like them, the annotations show what we need fro snow. My comparison to Gary Neville was because he is also someone who knows what he's talking about who explains things clearly to the ignorant viewers, such as myself.

I understand. :)

And by the way- the current output is more in favour of the 'high pressure doesn't get far enough out of the way' solution. Which means more of a NW glancing blow, with possible snow for the North / NW (away from coasts) and rain here.
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
I'm off there in two weeks hence my wish for some decent snow!

I think Andorra will see a few periods of snow, caused by fronts pushing south around the seeming ever present High pressure. IF (big IF) the High can move further West then there's a chance of a large dump of snow. Otherwise, it'll be 5-10cm each time with a few snow showers in between.

This site is good for how much snow a particular setup might generate:

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Pas-de-la-Casa/6day/bot
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,545
Must say I am very much enjoying waking up to the white frosty fields, even if I have to get up a little earlier to defrost the cars.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
I'm off there in two weeks hence my wish for some decent snow!

The latest GFS ensemble gives a very good chance of snow in 4 days time... see below. After that there's no clear signal, other than it's also likely that they'll get another period or 2 of snow, it's just the timing that's not in agreement. So, Androrra will get snow, and it will be cold to very cold at times (it's pretty chilly there overnight at the moment).

graphe_ens3_zgw0.gif
 


Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patron
Jul 31, 2005
15,978
North Wales
The latest GFS ensemble gives a very good chance of snow in 4 days time... see below. After that there's no clear signal, other than it's also likely that they'll get another period or 2 of snow, it's just the timing that's not in agreement. So, Androrra will get snow, and it will be cold to very cold at times (it's pretty chilly there overnight at the moment).

View attachment 80838

Thanks for that. It's not the same skiing down a man made piste with grass either side!
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
Thanks for that. It's not the same skiing down a man made piste with grass either side!

Andorra (Grand Valira) has over 2000 artificial snow cannons, so they've been blasting out 'snow' for days during the cold weather.

Which resort are you going to?

In fact if you look here now, at El Tarter, the snow cannons are running now


[video]https://streamsrv64.feratel.co.at/streams/1/15045_586f89b0-67f5Vid.mp4?dcsdesign=feratel4[/video]

This link is good for all webcams in the are

https://www.grandvalira.com/en/live-webcams
 
Last edited:




Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patron
Jul 31, 2005
15,978
North Wales
Andorra (Grand Valira) has over 2000 artificial snow cannons, so they've been blasting out 'snow' for days during the cold weather.

Which resort are you going to?

In fact if you look here now, at El Tarter, the snow cannons are running now


[video]https://streamsrv64.feratel.co.at/streams/1/15045_586f89b0-67f5Vid.mp4?dcsdesign=feratel4[/video]

This link is good for all webcams in the are

https://www.grandvalira.com/en/live-webcams

Going to El Tarter!

I went to Arinsal a couple of years ago and loved it there. Alcohol is seriously cheap!
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,858
Worthing
Going to El Tarter!

I went to Arinsal a couple of years ago and loved it there. Alcohol is seriously cheap!

Over the years I've done most of my skiing in Andorra ( although the last time i skied was ten years ago). I've skiied France, Italy and Austria as well, but i love Andorra ( not just because of the Dury free). I've skiied Arinsal/Pal, Soldeu, Encamp and Pas and they're all great. El Tarter is pretty much Soldeu as it's next door. There's great skiing there , but the whole Gran Valira area is massive.

Enjoy.

I'm looking forward to this

 






Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patron
Jul 31, 2005
15,978
North Wales
Over the years I've done most of my skiing in Andorra ( although the last time i skied was ten years ago). I've skiied France, Italy and Austria as well, but i love Andorra ( not just because of the Dury free). I've skiied Arinsal/Pal, Soldeu, Encamp and Pas and they're all great. El Tarter is pretty much Soldeu as it's next door. There's great skiing there , but the whole Gran Valira area is massive.

Enjoy.

I'm looking forward to this



Looks great. I can't wait!
 


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