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I have worked on mean individual teams' position, can't think of a better way of comparing. Take your point, but mine was to refute the claim that the run-ins are very different, and that is true however you dice and slice it.

Exactly. People are missing this point. Their home form (W11 D2 L5) is 7th best in division, only one point better than Villa's and worse than Norwich's. If their away form were the same PPG, Toon would only just be in POs. They have Leeds, PNE, and Barnsley as final three home games, all of...

The relative difficulty of the run-ins is in danger of becoming another NSC myth. Fact is that there is not much difference. The mean position in the current League table of the three teams' opponents in the final games of the season is: Newcastle 13.9; Huddersfield 14.2; Albion 15.2. So ours is...

And the top placed side had to make do with POs....

Yes, 3-4 points off here and there would seem more correct, but equally we might see 3-4 points more for some others - Fulham, Preston perhaps? It is not so much about 'upsets' but a loss of form overall. I am thinking Derby and Villa here; your point about upsets being less material as games...

Maybe not wildly ambitious individually but the overall picture looks wrong to me. Six teams with 80+ points looks too many. In the last 6 seasons, the highest points for 6th was 78. And three teams with 95+ points? Nah, that is not going to happen. The problem with game by game prediction is...

Good start then. Point ahead.

We've played equal games against top half and in bottom half (assuming Villa don't get ahead of Barnsley) and have identical records: W7 D3 L1 Record against the other top 7 sides is not bad: W3 D2 L1. And our current away form - W6 D2 L0 since Newcastle - is actually even better than home form

The cynics and Goveists might just think the model therefore assumes away all the likely variables. Basically it is saying that if you continue like you are, this is what will probably happen.