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don't know why anyone thinks they have a right to view a game on their terms. would you say you should have a live stream to a band concert? the clubs, through the league, want to restrict viewing and dont want live viewing in the domestic market. if the clubs change their mind the providers...

it'll be 2. not like they have a choice really, if there is a law there is some expectation of enforcement. police cant say "this law is unpopular, we'll ignore it", probably a small unit somewhere and every so often they need to put on a show. like so much other lower level crime.

trivially easy to get list of IP from a streaming service, or monitor ISP traffic for patterns.

if a book or CD is out of print, can you copy them? no. it's age old arguement that doesn't hold (sadly - a lot of material is unavailable).

sure its pretty low level stuff but copyright law is well defined. expect they'll be focusing on some involved in distribution.