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true, on the other hand we seem to revert to fear and doom based on media reporting without any firm evidence. only yesturday Whitty said he was no more concerned about new variant than Delta. the caution at this point is political to hedge bets in case it is worse.

both doing better in case numbers, similar issue with the not matching lower death rates (though lower). Belgium is the good comparison, they've dropped masks in public places, have lower case rates than UK, not as low as neighbours. its almost as if there's more to it. heres the thing about...

i know. i was making the point that cases (reported) are not correlating with death rate. if a country has 10% the cases you might expect them to have ~10% the deaths. we dont see that. draw a conclusion that they are more likely to die, under-reporting or not detecting cases. there are...

several hypothesis. masks and social distancing could account for some, also testing and recording are factors, early effects of waning vaccine another. heres a thing, the number of covid deaths reported are not 10-20%, but nearer 50%. are they 2-5x more likely to die from Covid in those...

here again with numbers, for perspective. for week ending 8th Oct. Disease of the respiratory system: 3206 Influenza and pneumonia: 1069 COVID-19: 666 thats mentioned on death certificate. thousands from dementia, heart disease, cancer, get faded from the data altogether. tracked in other...

the thesis is that, if vaccine efficacy wanes, and as we got vaccines through at risk and older population earlier, then other countries are going to see their cases rise. im not sure, since cases are not counted uniformly between countries and we see the cases so heavily increasing in the...

we dont like to bring in universal controls that require some policing and enforcement. we do like small marginal controls that make us feel like we're helping.

sure, and closing schools would make a much larger marginal gain. if we are concerned with the rise should focus on major causes not just minor ones because they are easy.

sorry to bring some data into this, but if we look at Wales (masks) they are increasing more than England, while Scotland (also masks) are lower. are we sure masks make the difference? looking further, we look at age breakdown. we see seconady school is surging, primary schools rising, other...