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i'd ask my cat to decide.

honestly, not really. the previous explaination seemed ok how the calculation is made, as a forecast with the player strategy preset. but there is a second decision as described. so if player A choses a door, host reveals a empty door (assuming not knowingly, they could have revealed the...

that explaination makes some sence.

in a fair game, if the other 999998 box had not revealed the prize, the final two are still 50/50. the only "some reason" one has been overlooked is a rigged game, so yeah, switch.ludic fallacy and that. i can see why this would exercise the Scientific American readers, a clash of probability...

:mad: well obviously. but how do i know if i got the right one or not?

ah so we have to assume a rigged game.

still not obvious. it implies switching would always reveal the prize. two seperate events, first 1/3 (or 1/100), the second 1/2.

i dont see why the change to 50/50 means you should change your mind.