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I just saw predicted wins against Newcastle and Forest which I think you had as draws before. Seems like cherry picking :)

Do you keep changing your predictions after each round of games?

With a couple of games to go last season, the other playoff teams knew they were in the playoffs, so they were able to rest players - that includes Hull. We had to fight to the last minute, so we were knackered. We don't yet know whether the team in 6th place will get a breather before the end...

It's a statistical model, the author doesn't suggest it's more than that, so I'm just commenting on the accuracy of the model. There are many things it doesn't take into account: 1) Changes to the team: Improvements to the squad Injuries A manager getting a team to play his way 2) A team's...

I just got an alert - I don't think you need pedants to get involved here, the fact that it's mathematically possible for Rotherham to stay up doesn't mean it should show up on the model. Our chances have fallen somewhat, while Sheffield's have increased a lot in recent weeks. I don't think the...

In other words, it's just not a very good model. 99.7% to finish above Reading is just ridiculous. You can get 1/12 on us with Sky, and obviously they're allowing for profit. Or you can get 8/1 on us finishing in the playoff places, which is decent.

It's a chart for Brighton. According to that, there's a 100% chance Brighton will finish with more points than Fulham. There's a 99% chance we'll finish above Leeds, according to that. 97% chance of finishing top 2 (subject to rounding errors). It is just a model and doesn't take account of the...