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While I like your optimism, you don't seem to understand what 'certain' means.

No I'm not. We might get there, we might not. We might finish top two, we might not. As things stand, the chance of us getting promotion is about 28%. If we were guaranteed a place in the final, the chance would be about 50%. That's a lot better than 28% right. So it's a good idea. Of course I...

No, you'd settle for a playoff final if it gave you a better chance of promotion, and it does.

:yawn:

Yes they're hedged in the bookies favour, so we should have even less chance than 12%. And of course it's not perfectly accurate, but it's as good a guide as we get. Our chairman makes money by his team analysing all the games and odds and finding examples of where the bookies odds are not...

38.75% does not align with 5/2. 5/2 is a 28.6% chance.

Except that it's not. We aren't close to a 25% chance of top 2. You can get 15/2 with Betfair, so less than 12% chance.

It's not a slightly better chance, it's not quite close. We're 5/2 against getting promotion - that's not nearly evens.

Yes. We're currently 5/2 to get promoted. Being in the final we'd be close to evens, so yep, that sounds like a good deal.