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Somebody who know's what he is talking about explaining what I couldn't :D

True although there would not be a 25% chance as that doesn't allow for form, final position and therefore home advantages, not making them etc etc. We could even have a greater than 25% chance or of course a lesser one or none at all. Straight shoot out between two teams v a wide variety of...

Given that Burnley are probably going to win it. That means we have less than a 33% chance of the last auto place given Boro still have a 2 point advantage and Hull a 2 game one. So I would take the 50% option of the play off final without hesitation...