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http://www.northstandchat.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=73474&d=1459941225&thumb=1&stc=1 The model gives us a 30% chance of the top 2. Plus 70%/4 through the playoffs equates to around a 47% chance of promotion. Given our form, round it up to 50/50. PG

Glass half empty shirley?

The opposite view is that one of 'Boro and Hull need a big form turnaround or we are in the box seat. I think we have been value in the market for a while now. PG

Cheers, now followed on Twitter. I hadn't seen the most recent update. PG

Do you have an update on this model 8ace ? PG

I like that model. 10% chance of top 2 and 3% of missing the playoffs feels right. All the more reason to keep those playoff dates clear. PG

I have redone it, again with no predictions just allowing the automatic result generator: Pos Team P GD Pts 1 Burnley 46 +28 85 2 Brighton 46 +22 84 3 Hull 46 +29 81 4 Middlesbrough 46 +23 80 5 Derby 46 +17 75 6 Cardiff 46 +12 75 7 Sheff Wed 46 +17 72 8 Birmingham 46 +4 67 Still don't believe...

Having had a play around with the calculator there is one clear conclusion. The simulator is bolloc*s. If you don't input any forecasts and leave it to 'recent form' then we finish 3rd with 79 points, EIGHT behind Hull in 2nd. Whoever said: "assume everyone else averages 2 points per game...