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For the most part, their predictions are very similar. I take a look at the six biggest European leagues every weekend and there's rarely more than 3pc difference between the Betfair price and 538. Long-term forecasts on 538 don't tend to change as rapidly as the odds can, which I tend to...

Not so, on 538 at least. From their "How This Works" explanation: "Shot-based expected goals are an estimate of how many goals a team “should” have scored, given the shots they took in that match. Each shot is assigned a probability of scoring based on its distance and angle from the goal, as...