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I've found an official government review on smoking from 2022 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62a0c3f38fa8f503921c159f/khan-review-making-smoking-obsolete.pdf) Which has this info in it: Annex F: the cost of tobacco to society Figures on the cost to society have been provided...

Some people, for sure. Some would definitely stop and others would cut down. It's certainly not likely to make anyone buy more.

It's not a simple task to work out the ultimate net effect as there are a lot of indirect consequences and also assumptions at play (for arguments on both sides). It's possible to argue that smoking-related early deaths save the NHS money in the long term as treatments for other, unrelated...