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http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/11/19/ukip-mark-reckless-_n_6183228.html

It's not the perfect seat for them but even so, they've been strong in neighbouring constituencies and a time when the government is not popular, you'd expect the LDs to mop up a few votes - that's what they're normally good at doing. Of course, UKIP are a big protest party but are there really...

No chance. He's going to go after the referendum so, probably the summer of 2017. That would enable the Tories to elect a new leader in the autumn giving him/her 18 months to get settled. It's quite hard to unseat a PM mid-term - the only one I can think this happening to was Thatcher - and why...

As he's already said he's quitting before the next election so that's scarcely sticking your neck out. :lolol: What no-one has mentioned is the shocking performance by Lib Dems. They're traditionally strong in by-elections and it's a geographic region they've historically done well. It was only...