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Given those three yeses, why do Gove and Osbourne have more chance of getting the nod? I have no axe to grind on this (or any other party political discussion, tbh) - I'm just interested.

Yes, indeed. However, Boris is more likely, imo. I know he needs a seat first, but that would be easy enough to arrange for him. Boris - Leader of the Opposition. Boris - Prime Minister. Wow. Just wow. But it could really happen...