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Not many. Games v the 'big six': Brighton: P2 W0 D0 L2 F0 A4 Pts 0 0-2 v City (H) 0-2 v Arsenal (A) Bournemouth: P4 W0 D0 L4 F1 A7 Pts 0 1-2 v City (H) 0-3 v Arsenal (A) 0-1 v Spurs (A) 0-1 v Chelsea (H) West Brom: P2 W0 D0 L2 F2 A5 Pts 0 0-2 v Arsenal (A) 2-3 v City (H) West Ham: P2 W0 D0...

One more than 18th. The rest of your post is fluff and conjecture. The actual figure is not the issue - one more point than the team who finished in 17th would have seen them safe. Obviously.

Obviously, the other way round. Go on then, I'm all ears.

Well, you were clearly wrong, then :shrug: If 18th gets 38 points and 17th 44 points, the required figure was 39 (ignoring GD), not the average of 41.